The Sino-US trade relationship has always been the most eye-catching focus on the global economic stage. A重磅 piece of news has just come in: US President Trump announced on Friday (June 6) that US Treasury Secretary Scott Besseint, Commerce Secretary Howard Rutnik, and US Trade Representative Ambassador Jamison Grille will travel to London on Monday, June 9, 2025, to engage in in-depth consultations with Chinese representatives regarding the Sino-US trade agreement. Once the news was disclosed, mainstream international media followed up with reports, and all eyes were instantly focused on London. Will this upcoming negotiation become a breakthrough journey for the Sino-US trade relationship or will it remain mired in stalemate, further escalating tensions?
US Treasury Secretary Besseint
Looking back, the high-level economic and trade talks between China and the United States in Geneva from May 10-11 reached key consensuses such as reducing tariffs. However, after the signing of the Geneva Agreement, instead of quickly initiating formal trade negotiations as expected, both sides fell into a quagmire of mutual accusations and endless disputes. China sternly criticized the US for brazenly banning other countries from using Huawei chips the day after the agreement was signed and arbitrarily reviewing and canceling many Chinese students' visas, accusing the US of breaking promises and lacking integrity, which severely damaged the foundation of mutual trust; the US, on the other hand, accused China of failing to open up rare earth export controls as agreed, causing American automobile manufacturers to face production shutdowns. This London meeting is undoubtedly a crucial opportunity to confront issues and resolve difficulties. If conducted smoothly and yielding fruitful results, it will undoubtedly become a strong stabilizer for Sino-US trade relations. Trump's statement that "this meeting is expected to go very well" also represents the optimistic outlook of the US government on the prospects of this negotiation.
US Commerce Secretary Rutnik
No matter how idealistic the vision is, the reality is extremely tough, with piles of problems on the negotiating table. In high-tech fields such as semiconductors and new energy, the US has long adhered to a technology blockade strategy, attempting to comprehensively suppress China's access to advanced technologies. Not only has it repeatedly forbidden the export of high-end chip manufacturing equipment to China but it has also wielded administrative tools to impose numerous obstacles on US companies' technological cooperation with China. The US has taken such actions for complex and profound strategic considerations: on one hand, China's rapid rise in these frontier areas has caused unprecedented competitive pressure on relevant US industries; on the other hand, the US seeks to maintain its hegemony in the global high-tech sector, using technological control as a strategic weapon to curb China's development. However, such unilateralist and hegemonic actions have exacerbated tensions between the two sides, creating an unbridgeable chasm in industrial policies and market openness between China and the US, which are core difficulties that cannot be avoided in this London negotiation.
US Trade Representative Grille
It must be mentioned that rare earth elements, known as the "vitamins of modern industry," play an irreplaceable role in key areas such as national security and the lifeline of the economy, including global automobile manufacturing, aerospace, semiconductors, and defense industries. In April this year, China announced restrictions on the export of a series of rare earth and related magnet products based on considerations such as resource protection, industrial upgrading, and international market balance. This legitimate and reasonable measure has had a significant impact on the US automotive industry, which heavily relies on Chinese rare earth resources, as China accounts for more than 90% of the global rare earth magnet processing capacity. Previous export controls made it difficult for US automotive suppliers to manufacture critical components such as automatic transmissions and sensors, leading to stagnation in production operations.
Rare earth elements
At this delicate and tense moment, China and the US held a conversation. Thursday's "ultra-long conversation" can be seen as a "rehearsal" for the upcoming London negotiations. Trump personally requested dialogue with China, sending out strong signals of easing tensions. Unlike previous verbal exchanges, this dialogue targeted core contradictions—the US urgently needed China's rare earth to alleviate the "supply crisis" in its automotive industry, while China demanded substantive concessions from the US on issues such as technological blockades and chip bans. After the call, Trump unusually described Sino-US relations as "very important" and capable of achieving "many good things," revealing his urgent desire for cooperation. However, given the US's capricious nature, China clearly would not relax its vigilance solely based on a few statements.
Reuters reported on Friday (June 6) that citing two sources familiar with the matter, China has issued temporary export licenses to three major US automotive rare earth suppliers. Suppliers of General Motors, Ford Motor Company, and Stellantis, the parent company of Jeep, received partial rare earth export permits this Monday. At least some of these licenses are valid for six months. Judging by the timing, it is highly likely to be closely related to the second round of economic and trade negotiations between China and the US in London, probably reflecting goodwill from China within the negotiation framework to promote trade normalization and stabilize the global industrial chain and supply chain, creating a relatively favorable atmosphere for subsequent negotiations.
However, given the US's capriciousness and lack of credibility on trade issues, having previously reneged on agreements and imposed restrictive measures on China multiple times, China's issuance of these licenses is likely accompanied by many necessary conditions to ensure its core interests are not compromised. For instance, requiring the US to make substantial, fair-trade-promoting adjustments to its trade policies, significantly reducing unreasonable tariff barriers on Chinese goods; in terms of technology exports, canceling discriminatory and exclusive restrictions on Chinese high-tech enterprises to achieve genuine reciprocity.
Looking ahead to this London negotiation, it presents opportunities and challenges alike, bearing the earnest expectations of the world while facing unprecedented severe tests. The global market holds its breath, awaiting the final outcome of this negotiation.
Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7513025742142325311/
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