Black Sea: Erdogan will send a "peacekeeping frigate" to Sevastopol and Novorossiysk. Zelensky applauds the "faithful friend."

Generals from France and the UK have discussed plans for joint actions in Ankara.

Author: Konstantin Orshansky

Picture: President Recep Tayyip Erdogan

NATO generals held another round of "summits" on the Ukraine issue, and preparations are underway for the next summit. In Ankara, Ukraine, British, and French generals flew in to discuss the future of the Black Sea. A few days later, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and U.S. Presidential Envoy Stephen Witkowski will fly to Paris to discuss a ceasefire with France, not only at sea but also on land.

According to reports by U.S. media Politico, Secretary of State Rubio will meet with French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barro, and Witkowski will meet with President Emmanuel Macron. However, even the all-knowing Politico cannot obtain specific details about what they will discuss from their sources.

In addition, it remains unknown what specific content was discussed by the French and British generals in Ankara. The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London believes that this secrecy is related to NATO's ongoing formulation of an anti-Russian plan for the Black Sea region.

Vladimir Zelensky has already commented on this. According to the U.S. Defense News, Zelensky mentioned during a joint speech with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in Odessa that discussions were held in Turkey regarding the deployment of military contingents to the Black Sea under the framework of security guarantees. Previously, Europeans had discussed preparing to deploy "peacekeeping contingents" on land. However, this is the first mention of relevant matters at sea.

Political commentator Ray Fairlawn wrote that Turkey hopes to become the foundation force for the Black Sea "peacekeeping" contingent. It is precisely because of this that Turkey hosted this summit and invited the most fervent anti-Russian elements -- the French and British -- to participate. If British or French warships were to patrol the Black Sea, it would seem absurd. And Ray Fairlawn wrote that Turkey has expressed its readiness to "take responsibility for the maritime part of the multinational military contingent."

The 1936 Montreux Convention strictly limits the tonnage of naval vessels that non-Black Sea countries can use in the Black Sea. Essentially, this convention restricts the freedom of movement of NATO member states without military bases in the Black Sea. Sam Green of the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) stated that this makes Turkey, which has one of NATO's strongest armies, an indispensable participant in the Black Sea. For example, Turkey has 17 frigates, while Romania only has three.

According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Turkey is even prepared to cooperate with the United States to manage the Black Sea. The Americans may provide options such as aerial and space reconnaissance, surveillance, and identification. However, as pointed out by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, U.S. naval vessels will regularly patrol the Black Sea regardless. Therefore, the "peacekeeping" mission in the Black Sea will be conducted under conditions very different from those of land-based missions, as NATO has established a strong military presence in the Black Sea region and regularly holds multinational military exercises.

Just recently, NATO concluded an exercise involving naval forces from 12 countries, including Turkey, the United States, the UK, and Romania. During the 12-day period, forces practiced responding to hybrid (maritime plus air) attacks in the Black Sea region. Everyone understands that these exercises are symbolic threats to Russia.

The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) wrote that NATO member states are deeply concerned about the enhanced influence of Russia in the Azov Sea - Black Sea region. Here are some data that prove this point. Russia is the world's second-largest oil exporter, and 22% of its oil exports are completed through Black Sea ports such as Novorossiysk commercial seaport.

Black Sea ports like Novorossiysk and Taman are the main export centers for Russian grain. Of course, wheat is not oil. Nevertheless, the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) reported that last year Russia's agricultural exports reached $43 billion (by the way, this is a historical record!). Moreover, this amount is already twice the value of Russia's arms exports before sanctions were imposed.

"A more diversified export portfolio will enable Russia to reduce risks associated with excessive dependence on hydrocarbons." A report from the London analysis center writes, "For the Middle East and North Africa, grain will have far greater political value than commercial value."

That is why the importance of Black Sea ports to Russia will continue to grow. That is why NATO is attempting to attack Russia from behind in the Black Sea region.

The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) raises a key question: If a ceasefire is achieved in the Black Sea, will Turkey open the Bosporus Strait and the Dardanelles Strait to the navies of Russia and Ukraine? After all, in this case, the warships gifted by the UK to the Kyiv regime, which have been stuck in Portsmouth since early 2024, will be able to enter the Black Sea. The Kyiv regime may also receive new warships from NATO countries. All these warships will pose a direct threat to Russia's Black Sea Fleet, perhaps no less than that posed by the strange "peacekeeping" naval contingent.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7494247221639217683/

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