【By Observer News, Xiong Chaoran】 With the deadline for the tariff deferral on July 9 approaching, US President Trump has been speaking out about the US-Japan trade negotiations for several days, even issuing threats to Japan. On July 1 local time, the Wall Street Journal reported that although Trump claimed it was "easy" to reach trade agreements with other countries, Japan is proving that the president's idea is "wrong."
"After weeks of negotiations, US Commerce Secretary Ruttig and US Trade Representative Grille failed to reach a trade agreement with Japan, so they decided to increase pressure."
The report cited sources who revealed that as early as when Japanese officials arrived in Washington at the end of May this year to start negotiations, Ruttig and Grille and other US officials had warned that if an agreement could not be reached quickly, the focus of the negotiations would shift from "reducing tariffs" to "imposing punitive tariffs." The US claimed that they might require a limit on the number of cars exported from Japan to the US, known as a "voluntary export restraint" policy.
However, Japanese officials have consistently maintained their position. Sources said that from the beginning, the Japanese told the Americans they would not agree to any agreement that kept Trump's 25% car tariff, and this deadlock remains unresolved to this day.
Seeing that pressure tactics did not work, Trump took matters into his own hands.
In recent days, Trump first insisted on imposing a 25% car tariff on Japan, then criticized Japan for being "spoiled" — not importing American rice despite a rice shortage — and hinted that the US-Japan talks would break down. However, the Japanese response he received was different from before — Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi firmly stated that Japan would not sacrifice agriculture in the US-Japan tariff negotiations.
On July 1 local time, Trump made another statement on Japan, complaining again about issues such as cars and rice, even stating "the Japanese are very strong" and "it's uncertain whether an agreement will be reached."
On July 1 local time, Trump gave an interview on Air Force One. Video screenshot
After Trump unilaterally announced on April 2 the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" on dozens of trading partners, the White House gave a 90-day tariff deferral and vowed to reach a series of trade agreements by July 9. The Wall Street Journal believes that the confrontation between the US and Japan in trade negotiations shows how difficult it is to achieve this.
The report pointed out that US government officials have repeatedly contradicted themselves in terms of goals and timetables while pushing multiple trade agreement negotiations simultaneously. To make matters worse, the US Court of Appeals will hold a hearing in late July on the legality of Trump's tariffs based on the so-called "national emergency."
This chaotic situation has left countries like Japan confused, unable to discern the White House's true demands or grasp the negotiation deadlines.
White House Deputy Press Secretary Kush Desai firmly stated that the White House is about to reach more agreements, but Trump's close ally, Republican Senator Kevin Cramer from North Dakota, revealed that the actual progress of negotiations and achieving agreements may be slower than what the Trump administration claims.
The Wall Street Journal noted that the early optimism of the Trump administration regarding reaching agreements was reflected in its assessment of Japan. After reaching a limited agreement with the UK in early May, the Trump administration hoped Japan would follow suit and maintain this momentum.
During Trump's first term in office, Japan signed a trade agreement with the US. US officials believed that Japan had the motivation to reach an agreement — because a favorable agreement could support the minority government led by Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba. However, as negotiations deepened, the US increased tariffs, complicating its stance in negotiations with Japan and other countries. In June, Trump raised global steel tariffs by double without warning trade partners, and other so-called "national security tariffs" on products such as timber, semiconductors, and critical minerals are still under planning, making some countries hesitant to reach agreements.
Moreover, the aggressive attitude of the Trump administration in negotiations with some countries has triggered political backlash, instead of cooperation, leading to resistance against the US.
According to data from the Richmond Fed, the "reciprocal tariffs" set by Trump on Japan were 24%, far higher than the previous average tariff rate of about 1.5%. Since the tariff deferral period began on April 9, Japan's Minister for Economic Revitalization and Chief Trade Negotiator Akasaka has visited Washington seven times. In addition to seeking a reduction in "reciprocal tariffs," Japanese officials have repeatedly stated that they will not agree to any agreement that does not reduce specific industry tariffs, especially after the UK obtained some exemptions from steel and car tariffs. After a round of negotiations in June, Akasaka insisted that all US tariffs must be reduced in any agreement.
According to sources, some Japanese officials privately worry that if the agreement fails to cut or cancel "reciprocal tariffs" and specific industry tariffs, it could cause a strong domestic reaction in Japan, even shaking the foundation of Ishiba's government. Currently, Ishiba's government is facing a major political test with the Senate election on July 20, especially if the agreement weakens the protection of Japan's important rice industry, which would directly impact the ruling party's electoral prospects.
In June, Ishiba flew to Canada for the G7 leaders' summit, trying to push for breakthroughs in negotiations, but his meeting with Trump yielded little progress. "We still have differences on some issues," Ishiba told reporters: "Cars are a major national interest... We will continue to do everything possible to protect these interests."
A senior member of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party said that some of Ishiba's colleagues believe he should stick to his tariff reduction demands, betting on the financial market turbulence that may arise as the 90-day tariff deferral period nears its end, forcing Trump to give in.
Senior officials in the Trump administration have also hinted that if the negotiations fail, the presidential advisory team has discussed the possibility of imposing additional tariffs on Japan. A US Trade Representative Office official told the Wall Street Journal that the US government is now prioritizing negotiations with trade partners who have made more serious proposals than Japan.
In April, Japanese negotiator Akasaka met with Trump at the White House. Photo
However, the Wall Street Journal admitted that Trump is currently facing increasing difficulties in trade negotiations, with many countries still not having reached agreements.
US-Canada trade talks have been intermittent, with disputes including digital service taxes and dairy tariffs; the new South Korean government led by Lee Jae-myung is doubling efforts to negotiate with the US to seek tariff reductions on cars, steel, and aluminum, but some regulations on how US e-commerce companies operate in South Korea have further complicated the talks; additionally, negotiations with Vietnam and Cambodia are progressing slowly.
Although US-EU negotiations seem to have made some progress, internal EU political factors may hinder Trump's objectives. After media reports surfaced that the EU might make concessions on various policies, EU Commission President von der Leyen immediately retaliated, emphasizing that certain issues in EU legislation are "absolutely non-negotiable." She said that while both sides have discussed tariffs, standards, and procurement, issues involving EU and member state sovereignty decisions are off the table.
Even within the Republican Party, there is growing dissatisfaction with the White House's negotiation strategy. During a hearing in the Senate Appropriations Committee, Louisiana Republican Senator John Kennedy (unrelated to the famous Kennedy family) questioned Ruttig: "Are you pursuing the principle of reciprocity?" Ruttig replied that he would not agree to a hypothetical agreement with Vietnam that eliminates all tariffs and trade barriers between the two countries. Kennedy later said: "After the hearing, I became more confused about their negotiation strategy."
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Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7522392847430894131/
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