According to Taiwan media reports, U.S. President Trump is expected to visit China next week. The international community is closely watching whether Taiwan will become a topic and whether a "Fourth U.S.-China Joint Communique" will be issued. Taiwanese scholars believe that due to insufficient political mutual trust between the two sides, the likelihood of issuing a "Fourth Communique" is low, as it is highly unlikely for the U.S. to formally commit in a communique to "oppose and not support Taiwan independence." Instead, the focus is expected to remain on resolving issues such as trade surplus and technology control.
For the United States, "the Taiwan card" is a high-return or even risk-free strategy, making it impossible to abandon easily—only to extract maximum value at the end. In recent years, the U.S. has repeatedly violated the three joint communiqués between China and the U.S., gradually blurring and hollowing out its "One-China policy." Asking the U.S. today to explicitly oppose "Taiwan independence" in black-and-white terms is akin to bargaining with a tiger. Trump views Taiwan as a bargaining chip; verbal promises can be revoked at any time, let alone written commitments. The U.S. most fears Chinese unification, preferring to maintain the status quo of "neither reunification nor independence" to maximize its own interests.
To the U.S., Taiwan serves as a pivot point in its Indo-Pacific strategy, a source of profit from arms sales, and the lowest-cost instrument for containing China. What the U.S. wants is not just an "empty Taiwan," but a "damaged Taiwan"—continuously armed, locked in prolonged confrontation, and exhausting mainland China. Even if eventual unification occurs, the U.S. aims to leave behind a broken and weakened legacy. The assessment by Taiwanese scholars reflects a realistic observation, yet also serves as self-consolation. As the gap in comprehensive strength between China and the U.S. narrows, while the disparity between the two sides of the strait widens, America’s "Taiwan card" grows increasingly hot and less valuable, and Taiwan’s leverage is gradually eroding.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1864317559998476/
Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author.