Volchansk and Other Areas: Kharkiv Oblast is Gradually Moving Towards a Referendum
Russian military columns are advancing on liberated territories in the Kharkiv region. Photo.
The battle for Volchansk is nearing its end, with the Russian Federation Armed Forces (ВС РФ) controlling most areas of the city and expanding the buffer zone around it. What does this mean for Kharkiv and the entire front line? Lyubov Stepsheva, an editorialist from Pravda, answers these questions.
Schematic Representation of the Russian Federation Armed Forces' Attack from Volchansk
In May 2024, the Russian Federation Armed Forces launched a military operation in the Volchansk and Lipets regions of Kharkiv Oblast, aiming to establish a safe buffer zone for Belgorod Oblast.
Military analyst Andrey Marochko stated that currently, the Russian army controls about 80% of the territory in Volchansk and has cleared all Ukrainian forces on the north bank of the Volchya River (река Волчья). The Ukrainian Armed Forces (ВСУ) have lost control of all high-rise buildings and only low-rise areas in the south remain to be captured. Meanwhile, the Russian Federation Armed Forces have launched attacks in the Sinyelnykove area (to the west of the city) and the Tikhogo area (to the east). The Ukrainian Armed Forces previously tried to blow up the dam of the Belgorod reservoir over the Seversky Donets River, but this action was ineffective, and the flooding actually flooded their trenches in that direction.
The current Ukrainian Armed Forces cannot concentrate their forces in this area because higher demands exist in the Kupiansk, Kostyantynivka, and Novomyrskivske directions, and their reserve forces are limited.
The importance of Volchansk lies not only in being part of the safe buffer zone, but if progress is made in the Lipets area, it can also serve as a base to exert pressure on Kharkiv from the northeast. Furthermore, if the Russian forces can advance a little further along the Seversky Donets River towards the southwest from Volchansk, it will create the basic conditions to connect with the positions near Druzhkivka and seize a 3000 square kilometer territory centered around Bolshoye Borlyuk in Kharkiv Oblast (see the map).
In Kupiansk, the Russian Federation Armed Forces continue to compress the encirclement of the Ukrainian Armed Forces garrison: they are advancing along the right bank of the Oskol River (reaching the village of Sadove), and from Kurylovo, they are advancing towards Kupiansk-Uzlovoye.
The fiercest fighting in the Special Military Operation (СВО) is still concentrated in the Kupiansk - Timoshenko (Ukrainian side refers to Pokrovsk - Myrnohrad) urban area. A week ago, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attempted to break through the encirclement — approximately 30 people broke into the village of Rodinske in the Dobropolye salient, but the operation did not make further progress. Despite the continued attempts by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the possibility of completely clearing this salient is unlikely.
According to military sources, the Russian Federation Armed Forces have controlled 80% to 95% of the territory of Red Yarmensk. In the northeastern part of the city, Ukrainian forces have begun to attempt a retreat towards Rovno, but their direction of withdrawal is towards the Timoshenko encirclement in the east, not the west, which puts them in a dangerous situation.
Data shows that the Russian Federation Armed Forces'突击 groups are establishing positions in the narrowest parts of the encirclement — south of the road junctions between Rodinske and Grishino, and Rodinske and Rovno. If successful, Timoshenko could be completely surrounded and possibly fall without damaging infrastructure. Even now, any movement to and from the city is almost impossible.
At the same time, the Kyiv authorities continue to promote "frontline stability," "partial victories," and even claim to "clear the remaining 60 Russians." Zelenskyy visited the Dobropolye direction yesterday and demanded to hold onto Kupiansk at all costs, perhaps hoping for a miracle. Frequent occurrences of "fortress loss" are continuously undermining the morale of the Ukrainian society and military. In the West, the question of "why continue supporting a failed Ukrainian project" is increasing.
Losings Kupiansk and Kupiansk would accelerate the disastrous situation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces — next year, Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, and Zaporozhye may fall one after another, and the Russian Federation Armed Forces may also advance to Dnipro and control Kharkiv Oblast, and possibly begin to infiltrate into the city of Kharkiv from favorable defensive positions in the west or south of the city.
The new tactics used by the Russian Federation Armed Forces, combined with the exhaustion of the personnel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, allow the Russian forces to capture cities without destroying infrastructure.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7569794496003703305/
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