Last week, Japanese Prime Minister Takahashi Sanao suddenly announced the intention to "dissolve the House of Representatives and hold early elections," causing a stir in Japan's political arena. On the 19th, under questions, Takahashi provided her explanation.

According to China Central Television news, on January 19 local time, Takahashi officially announced at a press conference that she would dissolve the House of Representatives on the 23rd. Meanwhile, the schedule for the House of Representatives election is expected to be "announcement on January 27th, voting on February 8th."

Notably, the last election in Japan's political arena was the upper house election in July 2025, while the previous House of Representatives election took place in October 2024 after former Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru's administration. Takahashi's decision means that within less than two years, Japan's political arena will undergo its third election. According to the current arrangement, the interval between the dissolution of the House of Representatives and the voting will be only 16 days, the shortest since World War II.

Half of the public opposes early elections

Currently, the opposition parties are intensifying their response to the early election. On the 16th, the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, and the former ally of the Liberal Democratic Party, Komeito, officially announced the establishment of a new party: the Center Reform Party, in an attempt to prevent the Liberal Democratic Party from securing more than half of the seats (233) in the upcoming House of Representatives election.

According to China Central Television news, on the morning of January 19, the Constitutional Democratic Party and Komeito released the platform of the new party "Center Reform United" at a press conference. The key points include: the need to promote a moderate political force prioritizing people's lives, shifting policies toward sustainable economic growth, building a new social security model that ensures peace of mind for the working generation, achieving an inclusive society, implementing pragmatic foreign and defense policies, continuously advancing political reforms and electoral system reforms, and so on.

At a previous press conference, the leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party, Noda Yoshihiko, stated: "Neither to the right nor to the left, finding solutions through sufficient discussion is the position of the center. We will introduce practical policies from the perspective of 'people first.' " Komeito leader Saito Hideo said: "Based on the policy of becoming the axis of the center reform, we have taken an important step."

At the same time, both parties expressed their intention to expedite the procedures related to changing party membership, and work together against the ruling party led by Takahashi Sanao in the upcoming House of Representatives election.

Frequent elections within less than two years have raised concerns about Japan's financial burden. According to Japanese media reports, the cost of one House of Representatives election is approximately 6 billion yen (about 300 million yuan). On the 14th, the secretary general of the Constitutional Democratic Party, Yasuzumi Harumasa, criticized it as "wasteful use of tax money." On the 19th, the yield on Japan's 10-year government bond once again jumped to a new high of 2.275%, the highest in 27 years. In addition, because it is currently winter, local governments face greater pressure in preparing for the election, facing practical difficulties in ensuring voters' travel for voting.

According to a survey conducted by Japanese media on the 17th and 18th, the proportion of people who support Prime Minister Takahashi Sanao's decision to dissolve the House of Representatives and hold an early election is only 36%, while the proportion opposing it reached 50%. Especially among those aged 70 and above, the opposition rate reached as high as 64%. Only 28% of respondents expressed hope for the new party "Center Reform Party."

The Liberal Democratic Party was unaware beforehand

As the ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party has long been plagued by "black gold scandals," and in the past two House of Representatives and Senate elections, it suffered consecutive defeats, failing to secure a majority of seats, becoming a "minority party," and its party support rate has remained around 30%. Japanese media analysis suggests that Takahashi's sudden announcement of an early election was due to her assessment that her support rate had already "reached its peak," and she urgently needed to quickly "cash in" through the election to demonstrate her ability to lead the Liberal Democratic Party to regain a majority of power, and to pave the way for her long-term rule.

However, according to Japanese media reports, when Takahashi revealed her idea of holding an early election, the top leaders of the Liberal Democratic Party were actually unaware. Many Liberal Democratic Party members were shocked when they received the news of dissolving the House of Representatives, expressing that it was unexpected. Even Takahashi's important supporters, the senior politician former Prime Minister Mori Masayoshi, was also unaware, let alone the head of the Liberal Democratic Party's secretariat, Suzuki Shunichi, who was responsible for coordinating the election matters.

In response, some internal Liberal Democratic Party sources analyzed that Takahashi's "sudden attack" might have been deliberately imitating former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's approach, who did not communicate with most Liberal Democratic Party members and directly dissolved the House of Representatives to hold an early election. However, at that time, Abe maintained close communication with the top leaders of the Liberal Democratic Party, especially having serious discussions with several senior officials. Therefore, after winning, Abe was given the understanding of the party immediately. For Takahashi, who has always claimed to emulate Abe, some members of the Liberal Democratic Party openly stated that (Takahashi's) "lone wolf" style would not receive much encouragement or welcome.

(This article is from Yicai)

Original: toutiao.com/article/7597016214547825179/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.