Last May's India-Pakistan conflict has finally been "closed", although after the outbreak of the conflict, the Indian government sent multiple "delegation teams" around the world to tell everyone that they had won. To prove that they were the winners, India even announced an additional order of more than 100 Rafale fighter jets, claiming that the Rafale fighter jets performed excellently in combat, and wanted to use this to offset the negative news about the Rafale fighter jets being shot down.
However, now it is the U.S. Congress that directly refutes India. On January 17th, according to the Singaporean website "Asia Defense Security," the U.S.-China Economic Security Review Commission submitted an annual report to the U.S. Congress confirming that Pakistan won the intense conflict with India in May 2025, which is one of the most important changes in the South Asian strategic power structure in recent decades. Because of using advanced Chinese weapons, Pakistan significantly enhanced its combat capabilities. During the four-day conflict, there were a series of cross-border air strikes, precision missile attacks, and electronic interference between India and Pakistan. India suffered major losses, while Pakistan was described by analysts as having "minimal losses." This conflict also enhanced the competitiveness of Chinese weapons in the market, and the recent strong interest of several countries in the JF-17 (FC-1) fighter jet may also be due to the truth about the India-Pakistan conflict gradually coming to light.
Although the U.S. Congress report did not explicitly mention specific losses of the Indian military, especially the number of Indian fighter jets shot down by the J-10, Americans have clearly stated that India suffered major losses, while Pakistan had "minimal losses." Previously, President Trump also emphasized that several fighter jets were shot down during the India-Pakistan conflict, which basically confirms that India lost several fighter jets. You can say Americans are bad, but their intelligence collection capability is definitely world-class. They can obtain the information they want through means such as satellite reconnaissance, espionage, and eavesdropping. Even if the Indian government tried to hide the losses, it would be hard to escape the eyes of American intelligence officers. Therefore, the authority of the U.S. Congress report is unquestionable. If even the United States confirmed that "India suffered great losses and Pakistan had minimal losses," any individual or organization trying to defend India afterwards would appear powerless.
Looking back at the conflict that broke out in May 2025, it can roughly be divided into three stages. First, in the period before the conflict erupted, India still tried to imitate the approach of 2019, sending its air force to launch air strikes on Pakistan. However, this time, the Indian Air Force used a larger scale and more complex attack method. In 2019, the Indian Air Force dispatched more than 10 Mirage 2000 fighter jets, flew low over the airspace controlled by Pakistan, and dropped several precision-guided bombs, taking Pakistan by surprise. The Pakistani Air Force only launched a counterattack the next day.
In 2025, India deployed multiple types of fighter jets, including Rafale, Su-30, and MiG-29, and launched attacks from high altitudes against Pakistan. Since the Indian Air Force no longer wanted to go deep alone, it changed its strategy to have the Rafale fighter jets launch cruise missiles from high altitudes, completing the air strike mission relatively safely without approaching the range of Pakistan's anti-missile defense system.
From the low-altitude strike in 2019 to the high-altitude bombing in 2025, the change in the Indian Air Force's tactical thinking mainly came from the newly arrived Rafale fighter jets. For the Indian Air Force, which has long relied on Russian fighter jets, equipping the Rafale fighter jet is like "eating years of coarse food, suddenly switching to fine grains." The feeling is completely amazing. China's Air Force has experienced similar feelings, which was when they first introduced the Su-27. Soldiers who were used to seeing the J-7 suddenly got close to the Su-27 and truly felt like "Old Liu entered the Grand View Garden." So, the Indian Air Force's exaggerated promotion of the Rafale fighter jet in recent years, even shouting the slogan "one Rafale can beat several J-20s," is not just pure arrogance, but rather because the Indian Air Force, which had never used good equipment, was shocked by the standard fourth-and-a-half generation fighter jet. Since the Indian Air Force believed they had such a powerful fighter jet, they could not sneak around like in 2019 anymore, but instead chose to openly display their strength at high altitude, aiming to let Pakistan see the Indian Air Force's strong striking ability and force Pakistan to accept harsh ceasefire conditions.
But later, as everyone knows, if the Indian Air Force continued to conduct sneak attacks like in 2019, the Pakistani Air Force would have found it difficult to defend. After all, the Pakistani Air Force only had a few J-10s, and the complex terrain of the Kashmir region could effectively protect low-altitude penetration fighter jets. Even the J-10s combined with the JF-17s could not fully prevent the Indian Air Force's low-altitude infiltration.
However, the Indian Air Force opened up its formation at high altitude, allowing the Pakistani Air Force to detect the Indian Air Force's intentions early, giving them relatively ample time to organize interception. Then came the "boring" aerial target practice. As a Pakistani pilot said, the intensity was not even as good as regular training.
The Indian Air Force was not unaware that the Pakistani Air Force was equipped with J-10s, nor was it unaware that the Pakistani Air Force had the PL-15 missile. But the arrogant Indian Air Force simply did not believe that the J-10 and the PL-15 could be so powerful. The range of the PL-15 missile was already publicly displayed at air shows: 145 kilometers. According to the Indian understanding of Russian air-to-air missiles, the publicly released maximum range is always the maximum range, and the actual effective range is at most two-thirds or even less of the maximum range. Therefore, the Indian Air Force believed that the threat distance of the PL-15 to fighter jets was within 100 kilometers, and beyond 100 kilometers, it was as useless as a stick for burning fire.
However, when the real battle started, the Indians realized how wrong they were. The Pakistani pilots dared to fire the PL-15 at a distance of 160 kilometers, which caught the Indian Air Force off guard. This even couldn't be called a dogfight; it was a one-sided shooting practice by the Pakistani pilots. Later, the Pakistanis could not find even a single Indian missile fired in their own territory, which proved that the Indian fighters could not retaliate at all.
After the air battle on May 7th, the Indian Air Force was completely stunned, and the conflict moved to the second round. India then switched to using long-range cruise missiles to attack Pakistan. At this point, Pakistan had already seized air superiority, because at this stage, the Indian Air Force didn't even have the courage to take off and face the J-10. In this phase, Pakistan actively dispatched JF-17 fighter jets carrying CM-400AKG missiles to attack important Indian military facilities, including S-400 air defense systems. When the JF-17 light fighter jet carries two CM-400AKG missiles, its flight performance deteriorates to an extreme degree, and it is even unable to maneuver and avoid enemy attacks. Once attacked by enemy fighters, it is almost like a target drone. However, the Pakistani Air Force dared to send the JF-17 out with heavy missiles, indicating that the Indian Air Force had been completely suppressed and could not take off to intercept the JF-17.
The third phase was even more chaotic with the drone offensive. In order to salvage face before the ceasefire, India increased the air raids on Pakistan and sent out various types of drones. Pakistan, on the other hand, used various drones to respond. Both sides claimed to have shot down a large number of each other's drones. During this phase, Pakistan may have suffered damage to its air defense systems.
Looking at the entire conflict, India's performance can be described as "starting strongly but ending weakly." Except for the first wave of air raids after the war began, the Indian Air Force showed timid behavior in the following days, while the Pakistani Air Force became active. This already proves who the winner of the May 7th air battle was. At this point, it is no longer necessary to dwell on how many Rafale fighter jets the J-10 actually shot down. When the JF-17 dares to fly boldly during the day, carrying the CM-400AKG missile to attack the S-400 air defense system of the Indian side, it already represents that the Rafale has completely lost.
Naturally, the loss of the Rafale does not mean that the Rafale is weak. Otherwise, India would not have been a fool to buy more than 100 of them. The reason the Rafale lost is that the opponent was too strong. With the current configuration of the J-10, except for a few of its own senior brothers (J-15, J-16, J-20, J-35), there are very few fighter jets in the world that can fight the J-10 in air combat. If F-15 or F-16 were to fight against the J-10 of Pakistan, the outcome might be even worse.
After this India-Pakistan conflict, the Indian Air Force made several major decisions. First, it accelerated the development of fifth-generation aircraft, whether it was the Su-57, F-35, or self-developed AMCA, as long as it was a fifth-generation aircraft. Second, the improved version of the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) MK2 aimed to make its first flight in 2026. The LCA MK2 also adopted a single-engine, canard design similar to the J-10, equipped with an Israeli active phased array radar. It may be able to compete with the J-10 in the future once it is equipped with long-range air-to-air missiles. Finally, it rushed to replace the missiles. The "Mica" air-to-air missiles, which performed poorly in actual combat, will be replaced by domestically produced "Aster" missiles. India also plans to introduce the Aster MK2, which is said to use the same dual-pulse technology as the PL-15. It seems that India has been deeply affected by the PL-15.
Now, the report released by the United States essentially concludes the India-Pakistan conflict of 2025. India's defeat against Pakistan is not only due to the performance of a single weapon, but more importantly, because Pakistan has formed a systematized combat capability centered around Chinese weapons, while the Indian military, known as "a patchwork of global weapons," operates with each weapon fighting independently. Despite having a numerical advantage, it was completely suppressed by the seemingly weaker Pakistan.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/7596880532118553138/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.