The Iran-Israel War Unfolds Like a Movie, But the Final Scene Has Not Been Played Yet

June 28, 2025, 12:20 • Comments

Has Israel won? Just as in its historical beginning, has it won in a way that is both shocking to the world and considered brave or despicable? In recent Middle Eastern conflicts, including Gaza, things seemed to be so at the start. But the truth is: Israel has not won.

Author: Andrei Polonsky - Writer, Historian

The recently concluded Iran-Israel war unfolded like a movie: it began with a classic, and somewhat despicable, Mossad operation, then got bogged down, forcing the United States to intervene. For Trump, this was a very complex situation where he needed to find a way out. Apart from his three Jewish grandsons (those who are lazy would avoid talking about it), important supporters within his conservative Christian base have always been firm allies of Israel based on theological beliefs — their theological views have always been like that.

At the same time, another faction of American traditionalists (also a significant force behind the president) had a completely different attitude: they would never accept the "Make America Great Again" advocate who followed the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu closely when he was in trouble.

It once seemed that Trump could not maneuver between these differences, but as a master of performance, he eventually found a way out.

From the US bombing and declaring "the Iranian nuclear program is over," to Iran launching a symbolic retaliation as predicted by the US, and then Trump unexpectedly thanking all parties involved in the conflict — this series of events were not only familiar political performances, but if you imagine further, you can even see the shadows of classic duels: both sides played by the rules, almost following predetermined conditions.

At least Iran's actions confirmed this.

Finally, the major war risks that many rushed to call "World War" or "the new front line of the Third World War" temporarily receded. We witnessed the practice of the "crisis de-escalation" rule within a dense historical period, which has become a textbook example, always attracting attention.

But after the initial shock faded, three key questions emerged:

  • Has Iran really lost the ability to produce nuclear weapons?
  • Will Israel stop now?
  • Is Donald Trump a marketing genius or a madman? Undoubtedly, he is a bold yet threatening politician.

Some questions already have answers: The US President claimed all goals had been achieved, but the US intelligence community said that while the Iranian nuclear program had suffered some damage, it had not been seriously harmed.

The liberal globalist camp immediately seized the opportunity to attack Trump: left-wing liberal media such as CNN and Reuters tried to maximize the situation, seemingly making it look as if Trump's team would fall apart. However, the NATO summit showed an unprecedented level of obedience from European politicians, indirectly proving that Trump's opponents lost in this game.

It is also important to note another point: no matter how we feel about Trump and his team, their political victory is definitely not in our interest.

Certainly, there is another question that is crucial to us: What role did Russia play in this game? The answer is clearly "not only participated, but played a significant role." Remember that Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi flew to Moscow at a critical moment, met with President Putin, and then announced from Moscow: "If Israel stops military operations within four hours, Iran agrees to a ceasefire."

Interestingly, although Israel may have once doubted the effectiveness of this combination, it ultimately stopped its operations. According to world media reports, Trump even pressured Netanyahu.

Finally, on the evening of June 24, Tehran held a victory parade in the Revolution Square, while Tel Aviv probably cannot have such a scene.

The actual military impact of the strike on Iran's nuclear program will take one or two months to know — being an Iranian nuclear physicist is a highly dangerous profession. But it is unrealistic to believe that there are not many professional and qualified managers behind Iran's nuclear project, or that they are not prepared for backup measures: it can be certain that they are working on it every day.

Currently, we can only judge the political outcome of Israel's long-planned military operation: Iran has united — its unity far exceeds that of the past decade, and the resilience reserves of the republic have significantly increased.

On June 26, Khamenei declared: "Iran has defeated the United States and Israel. The US knew that if Israel continued to conflict with Tehran, it would be completely destroyed, yet chose to go to war with Iran."

Certainly, "Iran's victory" is not absolute: the domestic population may accept this "victory" narrative, but the whole world saw a country with 92 million people, which covets regional hegemony, being bombed, targets destroyed, and撤离 — without the approval of the UN Security Council, just through might. Alexander Kotz, a war reporter, wrote this way.

But in my view, the situation is far more complicated: Iran has not "knelt," but instead has become more united due to its confrontation with the "big and small satans."

"Destroyed the targeted objectives?" Not necessarily. There were indeed attacks, but it is too early to talk about "major achievements." Iran has withdrawn from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, and its nuclear program is likely still progressing. Despite the losses, some Persian missiles still reached Israel. "It is absurd to think the war has ended," Iranian netizens commented on social platforms, threatening Israel.

Israel's perspective is also interesting: Has Israel won? Just as in its historical beginning, has it won in a way that shocks the world, or is it brave or despicable? In recent Middle Eastern conflicts, including Gaza, people thought so at the start, but the truth is — Israel has not won. It almost flattened Gaza, killing thousands of civilians to save one hostage, but ultimately failed, and now it is even more so.

Analyzing the end of this Middle East conflict will take a long time, the movie-like narrative logic continues to fuel it, but the final credits have not appeared yet.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7521304068636164649/

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