【Text by Observers Network, Liu Bai】
With the exposure of the U.S.-Russia "28-point Peace Plan," Ukraine is once again forced to face a crossroads.
On November 21st local time, U.S. President Trump publicly pressured Ukraine during an interview with Fox News, demanding that Ukraine accept the proposal within a week. On the same day, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy admitted that the U.S. plan, which recognizes Russia's core demands, has put Ukraine in a dilemma: either lose its dignity and freedom or lose American support, but Ukraine will not accept terms that harm its freedom and dignity. It is reported that Ukraine is currently drafting a counter-proposal with the UK, France, and Germany.
Notably, due to several contents of the plan breaking through Ukraine's long-standing "red lines," it is considered "severely biased towards Russia" and "very in line with Russian wishes." Some Western scholars believe that Russia has gotten everything it wants, while Ukraine has almost nothing. If Ukraine accepts the plan, it will face severe political, social, and economic turmoil.
Trump pressures Zelenskyy: I've always said you have no cards
Trump stated on Fox News that he believes next Thursday (27th) is an appropriate deadline for Kyiv to accept the plan. This statement confirms previous sources' statements. The Financial Times reported on the 20th that Ukrainian officials had said that the U.S. expects Zelenskyy to sign the agreement before Thanksgiving on the 27th, with the goal of submitting the peace agreement in Moscow later this month and completing the entire process by early December.
Trump then told reporters that with winter approaching and the need to end the bloodshed, time was very urgent, and Zelenskyy must approve the plan.
"He must accept it; if not, I guess they will continue fighting! At some point, he will eventually have to accept something he previously refused."
Trump spoke strongly. He recalled his heated confrontation with Zelenskyy in February at the White House: "Do you remember what happened in the Oval Office not long ago? I told him then, 'You have no cards in your hand.'"
Trump: Zelenskyy must agree to the U.S.-backed peace plan IC Photo
On the same day, Russia also applied pressure on Ukraine. Russian President Putin said on the 21st that the new 28-point plan proposed by the U.S. to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict could become the basis for resolving the Ukraine issue.
According to a statement released by the Kremlin website, Putin said during a meeting with the permanent members of the Russian Federal Security Council that the Russian side had received the text of the plan through existing communication channels with the U.S. government. "I think it could serve as the basis for the final peace solution."
Putin stated that Russia is ready for peace talks, which require substantive discussions on all details of the new 28-point plan. However, the U.S. has not yet discussed the specific content of the plan with Russia. In his view, the U.S. has not yet secured Ukraine's agreement to the plan, and Ukraine opposes the plan.
"Clearly, Ukraine and its European allies still hold illusions, hoping for a strategic defeat of Russia on the battlefield," Putin said. If Ukraine refuses to discuss the 28-point plan, the Russian military will inevitably repeat the events in Kupiansk on other key front lines.
Zelenskyy faces a "difficult choice"
The new 28-point peace plan jointly drafted by the U.S. and Russia mainly includes requirements for Ukraine to give up territory in the eastern Donbas region, limit the size of the Ukrainian army to 600,000 people, include in the Ukrainian constitution a clause that Ukraine will never join NATO, and invite Russia back to G8.
These clauses were jointly drafted by U.S. and Russian officials, without the participation of Ukraine and its European allies.
Several sources told Reuters that the 28-point plan resulted from secret dialogues between Russian President's special envoy Dmitriyev and U.S. President's special envoy Vitekov.
November 21, Kyiv, Ukraine, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy appears. IC Photo
Zelenskyy had previously rejected the plan's terms, considering them equivalent to surrender. He called on Ukrainians to unite and stated that he would never betray the country.
"Now, Ukraine may face a very difficult choice—either lose its dignity or risk losing its main partner," he said in a national speech on the 21st. "I will fight around the clock to ensure that at least two points in the plan are not overlooked, namely the dignity and freedom of the Ukrainian people."
Dmitriyev said that the U.S. plan aims to prevent more Ukrainian deaths and territorial loss.
"Due to the propaganda of warmongers, many people have not realized that Trump's peace plan aims to save Ukraine, so it no longer loses more land and lives," Dmitriyev wrote on X platform in English.
Two sources said that Washington had threatened to cut off intelligence sharing and weapon supplies if Ukraine did not accept the agreement. A senior U.S. official later said that the claim about the U.S. threatening to suspend intelligence sharing was inaccurate.
In public, Zelenskyy on the 21st communicated with leaders of the UK, Germany, France, and U.S. Vice President Vance, showing great caution, neither rejecting the U.S. plan nor offending the U.S.
"We value the efforts of the U.S., President Trump, and his team to end this war," Zelenskyy said. "This must be a plan that ensures a real and dignified peace."
Ukraine and the UK, France, and Germany are drafting a counter-proposal
American officials said their plan was drafted after consultations with Zelenskyy's close ally, the Secretary of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council, Umerov.
"Umerov made a few changes and agreed to most of the plan, which was then submitted to Zelenskyy," a senior U.S. official said on the 20th.
However, Umerov denied agreeing to any terms and claimed he was only a technical role in organizing the meetings.
Regarding the 28-point peace plan, the EU also responded, but many countries urged negotiations to include Europe and Ukraine. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Karas, said, "We have not heard of any concessions from Russia."
UK Prime Minister Starmer said he is committed to achieving a "just and lasting peace" for Ukraine, "a goal based on the principle that Ukraine's future must be decided by the Ukrainian people, and we must never ignore this principle."
At the same time, Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán, seen as a close ally of Trump, expressed support for the plan.
He posted on the X forum that Trump's plan "has gained new momentum."
"This president is a unique and persistent person. If he had been president at the time, the war would not have broken out. Obviously, once he makes up his mind to do something, he will not give up, and he has clearly made up his mind to end the Russia-Ukraine war," Orbán wrote.
Three sources told Reuters that Ukraine is working with the UK, France, and Germany to draft a counter-proposal to the 28-point plan.
Karas said, "We all hope the war ends, but the way it ends is important. Russia has no legitimate claims over the countries it has 'invaded.' This is a very dangerous moment for everyone."
Can the plan really bring peace?
Analysts pointed out that after nearly four years of brutal war, if Ukraine finally reaches a bad agreement, social stability will be affected.
"Russia has gotten everything it wanted, while Ukraine has almost nothing," said Tim Ash of the Chatham House think tank in the UK. "If Zelenskyy accepts this plan, I expect Ukraine to face serious political, social, and economic turmoil."
Al Jazeera cited multiple analysts who said the specific terms of the 28-point plan and their implementation methods are far from clear.
"These terms are unimplementable, absurd, and vague, and cannot be implemented without months of debate," Giles said. For example, point 9 states that European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland, but the exact meaning of "European" or "fighter jets" is unclear.
For instance, "European" can refer to the EU or European countries, and "fighter jets" is a broad term in military terminology, leaving much room for debate.
Additionally, it is unclear what kind of security guarantees the U.S. will provide to Ukraine, and the relevant details have not been published.
Point 10 of the plan states that the U.S. will receive compensation for this guarantee. Although the exact amount of compensation is unclear, experts believe point 14 might provide some clues.
Point 14 of the plan stipulates that $10 billion in frozen Russian assets and another $10 billion from Europe will be used for Ukraine's reconstruction.
The plan also states that the U.S. will receive 50% of the profits from Ukraine's reconstruction. However, it does not specify how these profits will be generated.
The plan states that the remaining Russian funds will be invested in a U.S.-Russia joint investment fund to establish connections and prevent future conflicts, but it provides little detail.
Giles said this might refer to approximately $30 billion in assets of the Russian Central Bank, which have been frozen by the U.S. and European countries since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
As for whether this peace plan can truly bring peace, Giles expressed doubt.
"This agreement probably won't result in anything, just like previous agreements," Giles said. "We have experienced the cycle of the merry-go-round many times before."
He said the plan will face opposition from Ukraine and Europe, and they will try to modify it through negotiations.
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