Russia Needs a Free Eastern Europe

May 19, 2025, 15:30 • Opinion

Eastern Europe is shaping its own image, though it may still be unclear. But for Russia, the key lies in how much Poland and Romania are controlled by our main adversaries - Britain, Germany, and France. At present, the outcome of this game remains uncertain.

Author: Timofey Bordachev - Project Director of Valdai Club

The total population of Poland and Romania is 56 million, which is nearly one-third more than the total population (37 million) of other Central and Eastern European countries that joined the EU and NATO after the Cold War. This ratio means that the political development of these two countries is both the most representative and the most important for the entire situation along Russia's western border.

From the perspective of international relations, even in the age of drones, the mobilization potential of a country remains a key indicator of its value. Therefore, Poland and Romania hold significant importance in our planning of relations with Europe and its eastern wing. The development trends of these countries not only foreshadow the direction of Eastern Europe but also may bring challenges to Russia's future foreign policy. The reality on the ground is somewhat less intense than what media commentators expect, but the struggle there will be serious.

The preliminary election results in the two countries have not caused a sensation. Even in Romania, where anti-establishment candidates had the highest chance of winning, society remains divided: although nationalists did not prevail, they still have good opportunities to consolidate their positions. In Poland, the main nationalist candidate received more votes than the "Pro-European" Civic Platform party representative, and the second round of elections is imminent, with results awaited.

Everything seems to indicate that the political systems of major countries in Eastern Europe are heading towards fragmentation, and all frameworks that could ensure their gradual "absorption" by the EU are disintegrating. It can be said that these elections have marked the end of the so-called "post-communist development period" for our former Warsaw Pact allies - they have entered a historically more unpredictable phase.

Is this beneficial or dangerous for Russia? The answer depends on how the current situation affects the relationship between Poland, Romania, and Western European major powers (and Brussels, which is under their control).

After pro-Soviet regimes fell in the late 1980s, all Central and Eastern European countries generally followed similar paths: old elites were excluded from power, with only a few representatives managing to secure positions in the new government.

In all regions taken over by the West from Russia after 1991, the rulers were mediocre, moderate political figures, with the primary requirement being a high degree of Russophobia. However, this was not nationalism, as such political doctrines were considered a threat to the EU and its dominant states. The Russophobia of countries directly adjacent to Russia was an easily manipulable historical legacy. At that time, Americans fully supported this, allowing France and Germany to some extent manage the Eastern European countries.

The main task of the new regime was to ensure the smooth integration of their respective countries into NATO and the EU, followed by joining the eurozone, which guaranteed their economic close dependence on Germany. The exception was Poland, which always enjoyed special status with Americans and was allowed to avoid becoming an economic vassal of Germany.

Hungary quickly showed its distinct traits: in 2010, Viktor Orban's conservative movement came to power. Soon after, non-establishment forces took control in Slovakia. However, the country had already joined the single euro area and lacked even limited economic sovereignty. Balkan countries (Romania and Bulgaria) quietly followed the lead until last year when they became official members of free movement within the EU - coinciding with the beginning of cracks in the entire EU framework due to unresolved issues over many years.

We know that these problems stem from the inability of leaders of major Western European countries to envision a future political and economic vision for the EU. This means that their primary task is to maintain their position as the main vested interests in Eastern and Southern Europe. Under these circumstances, maintaining the current income levels of France or Germany requires constantly plunging other smaller European countries into poverty, which fully aligns with their political goals.

The main reason why German, French, or British leaders dare not directly confront Russia is that their citizens are unwilling to die in battlefields. Despite the economic difficulties faced by the West, the level of poverty and despair that gave rise to militarism and fascism in the first half of the 20th century is far removed. The use of Ukraine has its limits, and the end of this drama is already in sight. This means that Berlin, Paris, or London needs to mobilize other human resources if they wish to continue their confrontation policies against Moscow.

Successful integration within the EU framework could provide certain possibilities. Over the past decade, the EU has become a machine for extracting resources from poor peripheral countries to the center (benefiting Germany, France, and a few nearby neighbors like the Netherlands, Belgium, and Austria).

In this situation, even relatively large countries like Spain, Italy, Poland, or Romania are destined to gradually become labor suppliers and consumers of German and French goods. The result will be the gradual impoverishment of these countries, reducing them to the fate of unfortunate Ukraine or Moldova. This means that there will be a large number of "have-nots" there, who might relatively easily be used as "cannon fodder" for an endless fight with Russia.

Therefore, if Poland and Romania can stabilize and even achieve prosperity, it would be beneficial to us. Conversely, their decline aligns with the interests of those forces whose sole goal is to extend the privileges of a few countries and their elites. In Europe, the group dominated by France and Britain, which have been Russia's main opponents for two centuries, leads this group, followed by Germany, which seeks economic benefits but lacks independent diplomatic skills.

The French government has not hesitated to actively interfere in the electoral processes of countries like Romania, demanding that internet platforms limit the activities of the opposition. Meanwhile, Brexit has not hindered the consistency of French and British objectives: both sides are completely aligned in their core European foreign policy issue - limiting Russian interests as much as possible. Therefore, Paris is promoting various ways to establish new forms of military-political cooperation between the EU and Britain.

The main obstacle to achieving these plans is the revolutionary changes occurring at the heart of the Western world (the United States): the U.S. will inevitably respond to the behavior of small and medium-sized countries defying their Western European "guardians." We cannot expect Polish and Romanian leaders to pursue pro-Russian policies - they have no reason to do so. However, Eastern Europe is forming its own face, though it may still be unclear, but this is not crucial for Russia. What matters is how much Poland and Romania are controlled by our main adversaries - Britain, Germany, and France. A weakening of this control will allow them to achieve economic development and even relative prosperity, while strengthening of this control will make them "cannon fodder."

Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7506358026493592073/

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