On October 15, 2025, the China Semiconductor Going Global New Routes Forum was held at the Green Land Bund Center in Shanghai, jointly organized by Observers Network, the School of Microelectronics of Fudan University, and the Integrated Circuit Industry Branch of the Fudan University Alumni Association. In the roundtable discussion of the forum, under the core theme of "China's Semiconductor Supply Chain Security and Global Collaboration," Dr. Li Zhanmeng, founder partner of Xinpai Capital, hosted a deep dialogue with four senior guests: Jiang Xiaojun, co-founder of Xilv Intelligence; Liu Yangyang, head of supply chain risk control products at Hehe Information; Liu Yixing, director of the global management committee at L&L Law Firm; and Wang Xianhui, head of the supply chain at Zhongyin Microelectronics. The guests analyzed the current security challenges facing the semiconductor supply chain based on their professional experience and industry insights, shared practical paths for building a resilient supply chain, and provided an outlook on the global semiconductor supply chain landscape in 2030, offering multi-dimensional thinking for the going global of China's semiconductor industry and its supply chain security development.
New Challenges in Supply Chain Security: Geopolitical Tensions Intensify, Risks Spread from "Single Points" to "Networked Structures"
"The unexpected event of Anshide Semiconductor, a subsidiary of Winbond Electronics, being taken over by the Dutch government made the entire industry deeply realize the importance of supply chain security," said Dr. Li Zhanmeng, the moderator, in his opening remarks of the roundtable, pointing out the severe reality that the semiconductor industry is facing disconnection and long-arm jurisdiction. With changes in the global geopolitical landscape, the security of the semiconductor supply chain has shifted from the "material shortages" during the pandemic to more complex "compliance restrictions" and "associated sanctions" risks, a trend that was fully verified in the guests' sharing.
Dr. Li Zhanmeng
Liu Yangyang, head of supply chain risk control products at Hehe Information, revealed the upgraded characteristics of sanction risks. He pointed out that U.S. sanctions against Chinese semiconductor companies have shifted from 'single-point strikes' to 'networked associated sanctions.' In September 2024, the U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) issued new regulations clearly stating that not only will the companies themselves be sanctioned, but also affiliated enterprises holding more than 50% of the shares will be subject to the same level of control. Moreover, the requirements for origin-based sanctions continue to tighten, and the urgency of identifying supplier tiers, tax rate applications, etc., for exported products has significantly increased.
Liu Yangyang, Head of Supply Chain Risk Control Products at Hehe Information
"Our service provider, a storage chip company, experienced a disruption in raw material transportation due to sudden warfare in the location of its overseas supplier, and such risks have become a core requirement for enterprise supply chain management. Qixin Huiview's AI functions for global supply chain scenarios can effectively address the sudden risks in the semiconductor industry," he emphasized.
As a veteran with 29 years of experience in the semiconductor industry, Wang Xianhui, head of the supply chain at Zhongyin Microelectronics, recounted the "layered intensification" of U.S. bans on advanced process supply chains through personal experience. From November 2024 to January 2025, the U.S. successively issued three orders: restricting AI chips with over 3 billion transistors from being processed at TSMC and Samsung; prohibiting domestic companies from purchasing HBM (High Bandwidth Memory); requiring wafers with 16/14nm FinFET processes to be packaged in BIS white-list regions (such as Taiwan and South Korea), which directly posed significant challenges to the supply chain security of domestic AI-related high-end chip design companies. Companies like JCET and Tongfu faced certain impacts due to the inability to return wafers. Wang Xianhui candidly stated that the advanced process supply chain is currently in a "dilemma": while domestic companies like SMIC are making breakthroughs in 7nm and 12nm processes, it still takes time, and the overseas supply chain is restricted by geopolitical factors, even EDA software faces the risk of supply interruption. We have initiated contract renewal plans with companies such as Synopsys and Cadence to avoid design work stagnation.
Wang Xianhui, Head of Supply Chain at Zhongyin Microelectronics
Jiang Xiaojun, co-founder of Xilv Intelligence, added the "hidden risks" of the supply chain from a technical industry perspective. He pointed out that the gaps in advanced process supply chains not only exist in hardware equipment such as lithography machines but also in core software and process accumulation. MES (Manufacturing Execution System) in domestic wafer plants is still dominated by products from companies like Applied Materials in the U.S. Although domestic MES companies have made progress, in terms of reliability and stability on advanced process lines, foreign products remain the 'benchmark'. More importantly, the accumulation of process capabilities, even if having the same equipment as TSMC, requires time and data accumulation to reach the same production level. This is an insurmountable gap for the domestic supply chain in the short term.
Jiang Xiaojun, Co-founder of Xilv Intelligence
Liu Yixing, director of the global management committee at L&L Law Firm, emphasized the destructive power of "non-technical risks."
"Overseas enforcers and judicial authorities are influenced by negative media reports from Western sources, leading to increased prejudice against Chinese enterprises, which has significantly increased legal compliance risks for semiconductor going global," Liu Yixing stated frankly. Chinese enterprises often find themselves in a passive position in overseas investments due to neglecting legal service investment. For every 100 yuan of overseas investment, U.S. enterprises invest 1 yuan in legal fees, while Chinese enterprises invest less than 1/500. This 'prevention cost' gap could lead to enterprises suffering total losses when risks arise.
Liu Yixing, Director of the Global Management Committee at L&L Law Firm
Resilience Building Practices: Multiple Pathways to Breakthroughs – From "Risk Warning" to "Ecological Collaboration"
Facing multiple challenges in supply chain security, the guests shared specific paths for building a resilient supply chain based on their business practices, covering dimensions such as risk warning technology, overseas layout strategies, and domestic substitution innovation, providing the industry with implementable "breakthrough solutions."
Hehe Information's Qixin Huiview, through "AI + Data Intelligence," has built a "full-cycle management system" for supply chain risks. Liu Yangyang introduced the operational logic of this system using a domestic storage chip company as an example: "First, comprehensive risk perception, through global data monitoring, we can issue early warnings about events such as wars, natural disasters, and epidemic control measures. For instance, when the Ben Gurion Airport in Israel closed due to war, we can provide real-time information. Second, intelligent decision-making, using large models to integrate internal supply chain data of enterprises, analyze the specific impact of risks on suppliers, inventory, and production schedules, and provide response plans combined with historical handling experiences." This "perception-analysis-decision" loop has compressed the enterprise's supply chain risk response time from "day-level" to "minute-level," greatly improving the efficiency of responses.
Zhongyin Microelectronics has adopted a "double circulation + multi-regional layout" strategy to open up the overseas advanced process supply chain. Wang Xianhui introduced that the company has established a white-list OSAT account in Taiwan, enabling collaboration between TSMC's wafer processing and local packaging. At the same time, it is expanding the South Korean supply chain. "If the capacity in Taiwan is tight, we can transfer the wafer of Samsung/TSMC to the South Korean white-list packaging factory, forming a 'Taiwan-South Korea' cross-backup." Within China, Zhongyin Microelectronics promotes the combination of "mature processes + advanced packaging," saying, "For edge-side computing needs, it is not necessarily dependent on 7nm processes. Using 28nm and 22nm mature processes combined with 2.5D/3D stacking packaging, we can meet some scenarios. Domestic companies like SMIC and Huali have already achieved mass production of 22/28nm processes, providing a foundation for supply chain resilience."
Xilv Intelligence focuses on "design-manufacturing collaboration" to help domestic substitution break through bottlenecks. Jiang Xiaojun pointed out that the core problem facing major domestic chip design companies is "product migration" — products designed based on TSMC's PDK (Process Design Kit) cannot be directly adapted to domestic wafer plant lines. "We use AI technology to mine wafer manufacturing data, helping enterprises optimize process parameters and achieve product migration from TSMC to domestic lines," Jiang Xiaojun emphasized. He stressed that domestic substitution should not be a "low-level clone," but rather innovation based on the current state of domestic industry. "For example, if domestic wafer plants use multiple exposure techniques to replace EUV, we need to develop targeted process optimization schemes. This kind of 'problem-based innovation' can truly solve supply chain security issues."
L&L Law Firm provides protection for enterprises going global from the perspective of legal and service systems. Liu Yixing proposed the concept of "strong internationalization," suggesting that enterprises should take the initiative in overseas M&A and investments: "First, lock in dispute resolution paths, prioritize arbitration over local judicial jurisdiction; second, strive for control guarantees, even if paying an additional 5% cost, obtain risk coverage through third-party guarantees. For example, if there had been Dutch local capital guarantees in the case of Winbond Semiconductor, the crisis could have been resolved through political coordination." At the same time, Liu Yixing called for the construction of a "national-level semiconductor going global service system." "The going global of the semiconductor industry requires the collaboration of professional institutions such as lawyers, accountants, and investment banks. This requires the government to take the lead in establishing a 'guardian force' to provide public service support for enterprises."
Outlook for 2030: Globalization and Regionalization Coexist, China's Semiconductor Needs to Build 'Autonomy + Collaboration' Dual Capabilities
In the final segment of the roundtable discussion, the guests provided an outlook on the global semiconductor supply chain landscape in 2030. Despite the continued uncertainties brought by geopolitics, "coexistence of globalization and regionalization" and "emphasizing both self-reliance and international cooperation" became consensus. China's semiconductor industry needs to find its position in this trend and build core competitiveness.
Liu Yangyang predicted from a technological empowerment perspective that by 2030, AI large models will be fully integrated into semiconductor supply chain management. "Not only will large enterprises adopt 'data-driven' risk control models, but small and medium-sized semiconductor enterprises will also popularize these models. Internal and external data integration, multi-dimensional risk alerts, and intelligent decision support will become standard, which will help improve supply chain management efficiency by more than 30%." He believes that technology will become an important force to overcome geopolitical barriers. Through AI, enterprises can more accurately identify global supply chain nodes, optimize resource allocation, and reduce reliance on single regions.
Wang Xianhui expressed hope for breakthroughs in domestic advanced process technologies. "I hope that by 2030, 1-2 companies in China will break through 7nm and 5nm processes, achieve domestic production of key equipment such as lithography machines, and complete the EDA and IP ecosystems, giving birth to a 'Chinese version of NVIDIA.' However, he also emphasized that this requires time accumulation. The semiconductor industry chain is vast, and breakthroughs in processes, equipment, and materials are not achieved overnight. They require coordinated efforts from multiple parties."
Liu Yixing pointed out from a global market perspective that China's semiconductor going global will face "new space" by 2030. "China's influence in Central Asia, the Middle East, and other regions continues to grow. Cities like Kashgar may become semiconductor industry hubs connecting the Islamic world. These regions have abundant electricity and land resources and a strong demand for Chinese technology, becoming new growth points for semiconductor going global." He predicted that by 2030, China's semiconductor industry will occupy an important share of China's GDP.
Jiang Xiaojun believes that by 2030, the global semiconductor supply chain will present a "multi-polar structure." "The United States, China, Europe, Japan, and South Korea will form their own regional supply chain systems, but key technologies and markets will still require international cooperation, such as the global procurement of semiconductor materials and equipment." For China, the core is to build 'autonomy + collaboration' dual capabilities. "On one hand, we need to achieve autonomous control in key areas such as 7nm and below advanced processes, EDA, and MES; on the other hand, we must maintain openness, obtaining key resources through international cooperation to avoid the technological isolation caused by decoupling."
Dr. Li Zhanmeng concluded by stating that the security of China's semiconductor supply chain and global collaboration essentially means "seeking certainty in uncertainty." "Geopolitical issues cannot be avoided, but technological innovation, ecological construction, and international cooperation can create opportunities for us." He called on industry upstream and downstream enterprises to strengthen collaboration, and the government, enterprises, and service agencies to form a joint effort. Only in this way can China's semiconductor industry occupy a safer and more competitive position in the global landscape by 2030.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7562486487736975926/
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