Iranian airstrikes gradually evolving into a Gulf War, with severe consequences

Middle East conflict escalates

French major newspapers have covered the Middle East situation with rolling news on their front pages, pointing out that Iran attacked Israel and surrounding areas, and Trump threatened to destroy Iran's nuclear power plants.

Le Figaro reports that in response to the U.S. president's ultimatum, which stated that if Iran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, the United States will destroy Iran's power plants. In response, Tehran said it would attack key infrastructure in the Middle East on Sunday.

Le Journal de l'Echo reports that Israel attacked Iran's South Pars gas field, Iran's largest natural gas field, and then Tehran retaliated by attacking Qatar's natural gas infrastructure. This aerial attack on Iran's military by the U.S. and Israel is turning into a new Gulf War, putting U.S. allies such as Qatar and the UAE at the center of the storm. Despite being attacked by Iran, most Gulf countries have taken a defensive posture.

Chain reaction triggered by the war against Iran

The war launched by the U.S. and Israel against Iran, followed by Tehran's retaliatory strikes, has triggered a series of chain reactions. The final direction of the war remains unclear. It is particularly noteworthy that the war's focus has shifted to energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf region, causing oil and gas prices to surge. It is expected that France's bill in May will increase by 15%, and global stock markets have begun to show panic, with business leaders also feeling anxious. It must be pointed out that many industries have been affected by military attacks and the surge in energy prices.

For example, the tourism industry, especially the hotel industry, is suffering heavy losses. Due to the experience of being trapped during the initial phase of the conflict, they are generally cautious about the Gulf region and other tourist destinations, and the outlook for summer bookings is worrying. The war in the Persian Gulf has also affected the chemical industry and the global aviation industry. The sharp rise in jet fuel prices has further worsened the situation for the aviation industry and caused serious damage to air transport. The capacity of major aviation hubs in the Gulf region has declined, cargo planes have stopped flying, leading to insufficient capacity on the Asia-Europe route and rising freight costs.

The risk of economic recession is increasing

Le Journal de l'Echo points out that even if the war in the Persian Gulf ends immediately, it will take time to restart the energy infrastructure in the region because both sides have attacked energy infrastructure, causing serious damage. Therefore, global economic activities will inevitably be affected.

Oil and gas prices may remain high for a long time. Analysts believe that a global economic recession is not yet certain, but its likelihood has significantly increased, especially in Europe and Asia.

Currently, central banks around the world are taking a wait-and-see approach. For example, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Federal Reserve have already issued warnings about the possibility of an economic recession. Moreover, Europe is seeking measures to deal with the rise in energy prices.

The oil crisis could hit Trump

Analysts point out that the failure of the U.S. government to control the soaring oil prices could cost Trump dearly in the midterm elections in November. Currently, he is gradually losing patience with the war against Iran. However, the U.S., as the world's leading producer of oil and natural gas, is also very sensitive to oil shocks.

There are three main reasons: First, U.S. oil companies cannot increase production overnight. Second, the U.S. also needs to import crude oil because the oil extracted through hydraulic fracturing is a relatively clean liquid, which does not match the processing capacity of Texas refineries. These refineries were designed to process heavy, viscous crude oil from Venezuela or the Persian Gulf. Finally, Americans consume more crude oil than other countries to create the same amount of wealth, and their lifestyle is highly dependent on energy.

Returning to coal-fired power generation

Asian countries seem to have found a way to cope with the energy crisis by operating coal-fired power plants, which is not conducive to the transition to clean energy and environmental protection. The newspaper analyzes that only China, with its large oil reserves, considerable renewable energy capacity, and low dependence on natural gas, has been relatively less affected by the Gulf oil crisis.

The war against Iran will affect Europe

An opinion article in Le Figaro points out that Tehran caused a global shortage of crude oil supply using missiles and landmines worth only tens of thousands of euros. Within the first ten days after the U.S.-Israel war against Iran broke out, the energy import costs for Europe increased by 3.4 billion dollars.

Food prices are also expected to show the same upward trend, as nearly one-third of the world's fertilizers are refined from crude oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts believe that the impact of this Gulf war on global market prices may have exceeded that caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Source: rfi

Original: toutiao.com/article/1860371035242567/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author himself