【By Guo Yan, Observer Net】
A series of provocations against China have all failed, exposing the Trump administration's hollow and timid stance before the world.
"Trump has lost the trade war with China," wrote Nicholas Kristof, a columnist for The New York Times, on October 29, directly pointing out that this president made serious miscalculations, starting a trade war that was destined to be lost, ruining the most important bilateral relationship in the world today—Sino-US relations.
Kristof lamented that China "won without a fight," and that China will continue to hold an advantage over the United States in the future. The cost the US may pay is not only losing the trade war but also losing some global credibility and influence in the coming years.
He believes that when Trump announced his "Liberation Day" tariffs in April this year, he seriously misjudged the situation, seemingly thinking that China was vulnerable because China's exports to the US far exceeded its imports.
However, Trump clearly did not understand that many things China buys, such as soybeans, can be obtained from other places, while in the case of rare earths, the US finds it difficult to find suppliers outside of China. Without rare earths from China, a number of American factories would be forced to close, and the defense industry would suffer a heavy blow.
People soon saw that China had put the US in a dilemma, as the US economy's dependence on Chinese rare earths far exceeds China's reliance on American soybeans.
US President Trump holds a press conference at the White House. IC Photo
US Treasury Secretary Becerra said that the US and China have reached "a substantial framework." The article states that if this framework is maintained, the US may reduce or cancel tariffs on China.
On the surface, this might seem like returning to the state before the trade war, but in fact, it is more like the US surrendering after starting a conflict and ultimately being in a weaker position.
Kristof believes that China uses rare earth control as a long-term means to restrict the US. Suspending the control for a year is a clever method that allows China to avoid Western countries fully breaking the monopoly while maintaining influence over the US.
A Canadian mining company stated that the West needs an effort on the scale of the Manhattan Project to develop rare earth production capacity, but even such a full-scale plan may take five to seven years to achieve results. During this transition period, the West will have to reach agreements with China.
At a weekend international expert meeting, most participants said that China is winning the trade war and now holds the advantage.
Regarding Trump's actions of lowering tariffs, relaxing restrictions on chip exports to China, and postponing arms sales to Taiwan, Kristof gave an analogy: "This is like Trump started a trade war but quickly found himself engaging in a close combat with tariffs. This trade bully unexpectedly found himself being bullied and began to flatter China, constantly making concessions."
The article wrote that China saw the US's weaknesses and already holds the upper hand in the bilateral relationship, while Trump is the weak person who yields under pressure, including on security issues. Moreover, the allies betrayed by Trump are unlikely to cooperate with the US to resist China.
In the conclusion, Kristof specifically mentioned the well-known Chinese military classic "The Art of War" by Sun Tzu.
He said that more than 2,500 years ago, the great military strategist Sun Tzu wrote in "The Art of War": "To conquer all battles is not the best of the best; to subdue the enemy without battle is the best of the best."
Kristof said that this may be exactly the Chinese idea, using trade influence to project more military power in the Western Pacific region without firing a single shot.
He also worries that if the US gives up patrolling the South China Sea under pressure from China on rare earths, it would be a major setback for the US in Asia and a significant enhancement of China's influence.
"So don't rush to cheer for the historic Sino-US agreement touted by Trump and his aides," Kristof lamented. "We Americans may not only lose a trade war, but also lose some global credibility and influence in the coming years, which will be seen as a sign of America's decline around the world."
Indeed, as early as April, several foreign media outlets immediately realized that the Trump administration was bluffing, directly pointing out that "it had already lost the trade war with China."
Analysts point out that China has multiple cards in this contest, including increasingly diversified export markets, irreplaceable supply chains, and control over key strategic minerals. In addition, the trade war initiated by Trump during his first term has prompted China to reduce its reliance on imported US products.
A series of extortionist actions by the Trump administration have been firmly resisted by China, not only confirming the failure of its China strategy but also giving Democrats a critical opportunity.
On October 29, Democratic senators in the US Senate released a new report on the impact of Trump's tariff policies, stating that Trump is "losing the trade war he started against China," allowing China to take the upper hand and putting the US in a "weaker" position during the meeting between the Chinese and US presidents.
The report cited inflation and employment data, arguing that the global tariffs implemented by Trump since April have strengthened China's position and weakened the US's leverage, leading to a resurgence in US inflation, a shrinking manufacturing sector, and pressure on farmers. Meanwhile, China has achieved export growth by expanding its exports to non-American regions.
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