Reference News Network, December 20 report: The Spanish website "China Policy Watch" published an article titled "The Geopolitical Challenge of Japanese Militarism" on December 17. The author is Joan Carlos Gindin Dúlip. The following is a partial translation:
Japan is on the brink of multiple crises that could reshape the balance of power in East Asia. As the world's fourth-largest economy, Japan is currently facing long-term economic stagnation, the fastest aging population in the world, and unprecedented geopolitical pressures caused by American hegemony, which has forced it to re-militarize.
This is not just about worrying economic data; more importantly, for decades since 1945, Japan has adhered to constitutional pacifism, but now it is being pushed to adopt aggressive military postures.
Washington is eager to turn Japan into a pillar of its containment strategy in the Pacific region. But this path carries life-or-death risks for Japan: first, Japan may be drawn into armed conflicts it cannot win; second, its already fragile economic recovery may collapse, and the rules-based international order may ultimately disintegrate. This is the reality Japan faces, and its decisions in the coming months will not only determine its own future, but also affect the stability of the entire Asia-Pacific region.
Washington views Beijing as its main strategic competitor in the 21st century and is curbing China's rise by building regional alliances and partnership networks. In this process, Japan has become a key component of this containment strategy. Pressure from the White House is pushing Japan to gradually abandon its post-war pacifist stance and become a more proactive and action-oriented military ally of the United States.
It is worth noting that Japan's re-militarization is not due to its national strength, but rather exposes its structural weaknesses. Japan is no longer the dynamic economic superpower it was in the 1980s, and it also faces severe demographic challenges. In this context, significantly increasing defense spending means transferring scarce resources from key areas such as education, technological innovation, infrastructure, and welfare systems that support a rapidly aging society. This is nothing short of a risky gamble, which may accelerate rather than prevent economic decline.
Even more thought-provoking is the fact that Sino-Japanese economic ties are extremely close, with Japanese supply chains deeply integrated with Chinese manufacturing, and Japanese companies have significant investments in China. Such a deep economic relationship should be a strong force for promoting cooperation and stability. However, the current geopolitical competition logic, largely led by Washington, places rational economic interests behind increasingly militarized and confrontational national security considerations.
Japan should actively seek to ease relations with China. It can promote the construction of an inclusive regional security framework that includes China rather than excludes it, and use its economic relationship with China as a basis for expanding cooperation, rather than viewing this relationship as a weakness to overcome. However, in reality, Japan's political arena is still dominated by conservative forces committed to strengthening the U.S.-Japan alliance, who are increasingly inclined to accept the logic of re-militarization.
In summary, Japan is at a historic crossroads, facing choices that will shape its fate for the next few decades. Currently, Japan's choice to advance re-militarization within the framework of the U.S.-Japan alliance almost certainly leads to accelerated economic decline and a high risk of catastrophic war. Conversely, if it chooses to ease relations and strengthen economic cooperation, Japan will have a more prosperous and secure future.
However, choosing this alternative path requires political courage, strategic autonomy, and the willingness to withstand pressure from Washington, all of which are rare in today's Japanese political arena. The direction Japan takes in the coming years will not only concern the Japanese people, but also affect the entire Asia-Pacific region and the world. (Translated by Wang Meng)
Original: toutiao.com/article/7585872753127998002/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.