Philippines has taken three actions, staying in the Scarborough Shoal, Iron Man Reef, and Spratly Islands. China has finally had enough and launched a water cannon "pursuit battle" in the South China Sea.

On October 12, the Philippine coast guard vessels 3002 and 3003 illegally entered the waters near Iron Man Reef. During this time, vessel 3003 made a sharp turn to collide with the Chinese Coast Guard ship 21559. The Chinese water cannon sprayed, and the Philippine vessel immediately turned back and withdrew.

This is not an isolated case.

On October 8, a Philippine patrol boat tried to enter the Spratly Islands but was blocked by the Chinese Coast Guard ship 5009;

On the same day, the Philippine vessel 3002 was still loitering around the Scarborough Shoal to distract the Chinese Coast Guard ships.

In just five days, the Philippines has been lingering at the three reefs. From repeated warnings to water cannon expulsion, there is only one reason behind it: if you don't provoke me, I won't provoke you; if you do provoke me, I will definitely retaliate.

First, we need to clarify whether the Philippines' "three-pronged attack" was a spontaneous decision.

If we look at the timeline, it's clear.

On October 9, the Philippine vessel 3003 retreated from the Scarborough Shoal and then met with vessel 3002 on Zhongye Island. They refueled and loaded supplies, clearly preparing for tactical coordination.

On October 10, the two vessels went to Beizi Island to deliver some supplies to so-called "fishermen." In fact, they were testing China's reaction, conducting reconnaissance, and deliberately provoking incidents.

This tactic is something they have used repeatedly.

On May 21 this year, those two vessels illegally entered the Iron Man Reef and bumped into the Chinese Coast Guard ship 21559. In April, they even sent six people to secretly land on the reef.

This time, the Philippines clearly chose the period of China's "restraint" to act.

The friction at the Spratly Islands on October 8, China did not use the water cannon, just blocked the vessel, hoping to leave some room for consideration.

But the Philippines took advantage of the situation and directly acted aggressively three days later at the Iron Man Reef.

Vessel 3003 approached continuously more than ten times. Even the collision avoidance equipment in the bridge wasn't turned on. The Chinese crew called out 17 times through the radio, "You have entered Chinese jurisdictional waters, please leave immediately," but the Philippines didn't listen.

Only when the collision happened did the Chinese side open the water cannon.

The Chinese Coast Guard has already released the on-site video. It is clear who started the incident and who was avoiding the risk.

Why does the Philippines dare to take such a risky action? Simply put, it wants to use the South China Sea as a "cover" to cover up its domestic problems.

The current support rate of the Marcos government has dropped to 48%, down 14 percentage points from when he first took office. In the Senate, even his own people are not enough, and the opposition constantly criticizes him for "diplomatic incompetence."

The economic situation is even worse. On the Huangyan Island, Filipino fishermen used to catch over 1 million tons of fish per year, but now it's only 270,000 tons, a direct loss of $230 million, leaving 32,000 fishermen without a livelihood. Their fishing boats are parked in the harbor, gathering dust. Has the Philippine government calculated this?

Instead of thinking about how to help the fishermen find a way to survive, they prefer to shift attention by provoking incidents in the South China Sea.

But the facts show that Marcos is stepping on his own feet.

Continuously tense Sino-Philippine relations have led to setbacks in Philippine agricultural exports and tourism, with many Chinese tourists lost. Ultimately, it's the ordinary people of the Philippines who have to pay the price.

Perhaps Marcos thinks that holding onto the "leg" of the United States will make him safe, but on October 12, during the conflict at the Iron Man Reef, the American warship only stayed far away, watching from a distance, and dared not approach even slightly.

The U.S. Defense Secretary has already said, "The mutual defense treaty does not cover uninhabited islands," and the so-called "support" given to the Philippines is only 12 "Typhoon" missile launchers without ammunition.

The Philippines exchanged four military bases for this "empty" thing. Do they really think the United States would go to war with China for them?

Don't forget, Canada once worked very hard for the United States, and Trump still said he would tax Canada, even saying "annex Canada as the 51st state."

The United States can even betray its closest allies, let alone the Philippines.

Now, let's talk about the Chinese water cannon. Rather than calling it a "pursuit battle" in the South China Sea, it is better to call it a "precise restraint" countermeasure.

China's stance has always been clear. After establishing the natural reserve at the Huangyan Island in September, China issued 12 notes to the Philippines through diplomatic channels, clearly stating the areas where "they cannot enter."

On October 8, at the Spratly Islands, only the ship was blocked, no water cannon was used, which was to leave room for dialogue;

Until October 12, when the Philippine vessel actively collided, the water cannon was opened.

The Philippine vessel weighs 1,200 tons, while the Chinese vessel weighs 3,000 tons. If the Philippines had initiated the collision, their vessel would have sunk long ago. How could it only suffer "minor damage"? More importantly, China never said anything final, and the door for dialogue has always been open.

But what about the Philippines? Not only did they refuse bilateral consultations, but they also stirred up trouble in ASEAN, trying to get other countries to oppose China together.

However, the regional countries are all wise people. Malaysia's Prime Minister directly said, "We won't be pawns of great powers," Indonesia continues to cooperate with China on fisheries, and even in the "Code of Conduct" consultation, the Philippines is the only one who doesn't cooperate.

This is interesting. The Philippines wants to isolate China, but in the end, it is themselves who are isolated.

Now, looking at this "water cannon confrontation," it is actually a clear signal. China speaks reason and follows rules, but the sovereignty bottom line cannot be touched.

If the Philippines continues to linger at the Huangyan Island, Iron Man Reef, and Spratly Islands, it will eventually face three outcomes: fishermen have no food to eat, the United States is unreliable, and ASEAN doesn't accept them.

The Chinese water cannon didn't fire at people, only at the infringing ships. The Chinese warning didn't target people, only wrong actions.

This sense of proportion, the Philippines should understand.

To be honest, China and the Philippines are neighbors, and they could have cooperated well. China is the largest trade partner of the Philippines. The fruits and minerals of the Philippines can be sold to China, and Chinese investment can help build roads and ports in the Philippines.

But the Philippines prefers to follow others and provoke incidents, turning a good cooperation path into a confrontation path. Why is that necessary? Going back to the negotiation table earlier is truly for the benefit of the Filipino people.

Other countries also need to take this as a lesson. China is not easy to bully. Whoever wants to use China's interests as a "test of loyalty" will eventually reap what they sow.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7560544707739124264/

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