German media: What is Trump's so-called "land exchange," and can Ukraine retain Donbas?

After U.S. President Trump met with Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, although the publicly disclosed content did not mention the handling of occupied Ukrainian territories, this will determine the direction of peace.

The results of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's visit to Washington and his bilateral meeting with U.S. President Trump have attracted attention and discussion from international media. Trump stated that the United States agrees to assist Europe in providing security guarantees for Ukraine. However, whether these security assurances can be actually included in the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement remains uncertain.

Trump also said he has started arranging a meeting between Russian and Ukrainian leaders. German Chancellor Merkel (also known as Mertz) revealed that a summit between Russian and Ukrainian leaders will take place within the next two weeks, but the location is still undetermined. Zelenskyy stated that he is ready to meet with Putin and is willing to participate in a trilateral meeting between the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine to discuss the territorial issues between Russia and Ukraine.

Although NATO Secretary General Rasmussen mentioned that the topic of territory was not discussed at the meeting on the 18th between European countries and U.S.-Ukrainian leaders, before meeting with Putin and Zelenskyy, Trump had already proposed a "land exchange" plan between Russia and Ukraine.

Putin wants complete control over Donbas

Russia currently occupies one-fifth of Ukraine's total area. In addition to the Crimean Peninsula annexed in 2014, there are parts of the Luhansk and Donetsk provinces in the east (collectively known as the Donbas region), and parts of the Zaporozhye and Kherson provinces in the south.

The core of Trump's "land exchange" proposal is for Kyiv to give up the industrial hub of Donbas. The residents here mainly speak Russian. Since 2014, Putin has always tried to control the Donbas region, supporting local separatist forces to "independence." Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Donbas has been the most brutal battlefield of the Russia-Ukraine war.

According to the New York Times, citing a senior European official who heard the briefing on the Alaska meeting between U.S. and Russian presidents, Putin demanded that Ukraine withdraw its troops from the Donbas region. In return, Putin proposed to freeze the conflict in other parts of Ukraine at the current front lines and provide a written commitment not to launch further attacks.

Putin initially described the invasion of Ukraine as an operation to protect the Russian-speaking population in Donbas. According to a Russian senior journalist Remchukov quoted by the New York Times, Putin may be willing to exchange other territories occupied by Russia for parts of Donbas still under Ukrainian control.

"Compared to Dnipro, Sumy or Kharkiv, Donetsk is more seen as [our land]," said Sergei Markov, a Moscow political scholar who once served as a Kremlin advisor, when talking about the areas of Ukraine partially occupied by Russia.

Unrecognized referendums

In September 2022, four occupied districts in eastern and southern Ukraine held referendums under Russian manipulation, claiming to join the Russian Federation. However, the Council of Europe report stated that the referendums were neither free nor open, and locals suffered violence and coercion. Moscow claimed that the referendum results have become part of the Russian Constitution, thus absolutely unchangeable. However, among the four occupied regions, only Luhansk is completely controlled by Russia.

For Russia, the Donbas region holds significant geopolitical importance. It is rich in coal and iron ore, making it a center for steel and chemical industries. It is estimated that the eastern region also contains rare earth mineral deposits. At the same time, it is connected to Crimea by land. Ukraine no longer has access to the Sea of Azov.

Since 2014, the military importance of the region for Ukraine has increased. The Ukrainian army has established a "fortress zone" here, which is the most important line of defense so far. Although Russia controls most of the Donbas region, it has never broken through this "fortress zone."

The U.S. Institute for the Study of War analyzed that if Ukraine is forced to abandon this "fortress zone," it would have no guarantee of preventing the resumption of hostilities.

Ukraine has repeatedly emphasized that it does not consider giving up or ceding territory. "We will not leave the Donbas region," Zelenskyy told reporters before the recent Alaska meeting between Russian and U.S. presidents, refusing to give up any territory not occupied by Russia.

Sources: DW

Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1840938677597194/

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