In the field of modern military technology, the unveiling of China's "Jiu Tian" drone marks the emergence of a new type of aerial platform. This device, with its modular design and multi-mission capabilities, has quickly gained international attention. Ukrainian media, however, have raised doubts about its positioning as a "drone mother ship," based on their combat experience.
This perspective stems from lessons learned in air defense confrontation during the Ukraine-Russia conflict, emphasizing the vulnerability of high-value targets. This assessment provides valuable feedback, driving technological optimization and strategic adjustment.
The following analysis focuses on the core arguments of Ukrainian media, examining the position and potential of the "Jiu Tian" within the concept of swarm warfare, combined with global trends in drone development.
The Ukrainian website "Defense Express" analyzed a promotional video of the "Jiu Tian" released by CCTV in May 2025.
The video shows the belly hive compartment releasing a large number of small drones, forming a dense attack formation, emphasizing the extension of short-range weapons' operational range from thousands of kilometers away.
This visual presentation indeed highlights the innovation of the "Jiu Tian," but Ukrainian media point out that actual size limits the scale of this function. The fuselage length is only 16.35 meters, with a wingspan of 25 meters, equivalent to a medium transport aircraft level, falling short of the giant platform implied in the promotion.
Although the hive compartment supports the internal release of hundreds of small cruise missiles or quadcopters, the range of these munitions is mostly limited to 10 to 30 kilometers, requiring the mother ship to go deep into the enemy's firepower zone to activate the swarm. This directly exposes survival risks: on the modern battlefield, platforms without stealth features are easily locked by long-range radar.
From the perspective of Chinese technological evolution, the "Jiu Tian" inherits the reconnaissance and strike integrated framework of the Yilong series, but increases the payload to 6 tons, with a range of 7,000 kilometers and an operating altitude of 15,000 meters. These parameters come from the localization of turbofan engines, with a 20% increase in thrust compared to the previous generation, allowing for prolonged high-altitude cruising.
Compared to the 32-hour endurance of the earlier Rainbow-5, the "Jiu Tian" reduces its own weight by 15% through composite materials, freeing up space to integrate the hive module. This advancement demonstrates the advantages of modular design: the mission bay can be switched within two hours, supporting fire strikes or electronic warfare.
However, Ukrainian media's questioning points directly at the pain points of the swarm mother ship model - the internal compartments are difficult to accommodate long-range munitions. Taking Iran's "Shahed-2" as an example, it has a length of 3.5 meters and a wingspan of 3 meters, and even after folding, its weight remains 150 kilograms. The "Jiu Tian" has a maximum of 8 to 10 units in its cabin, far less than the hundred shown in the video. This physical constraint arises from the structure of a width of 1 to 2 meters, making saturation deployment impossible.
Ukrainian viewpoints are based on their national air defense experience: in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, targets with a volume exceeding 5 cubic meters have an average survival time of less than 50 minutes. Although the Russian "Witness" series launches thousands of units per week, the interception rate exceeds 70%, highlighting the cost pressure of saturation attacks.
If the "Jiu Tian" forcefully advances into a 30-kilometer circle, it will face the S-400 long-range system or Patriot mid-range interception, or even short-range portable missiles can pose a threat. After analyzing the video details, the media believes that deploying small quadcopters requires low-altitude operations at 500 meters, further increasing exposure risks.
By contrast, the US MQ-9 "Reaper" has a payload of only 2 tons, emphasizing long-duration reconnaissance rather than swarm command; although the "Jiu Tian" has a 6-ton capacity, which is leading, it needs to balance maneuverability and payload.
The Ukrainian report acknowledges that if it shifts to an external suspension mode, six of the eight suspension points can support anti-ship missiles with a range of 200 kilometers or glide bombs with a range of 100 kilometers, which can operate outside the air defense perimeter, increasing the survival rate to 70%.
This assessment is not to negate the overall value of the "Jiu Tian," but to remind that the swarm concept needs practical testing. Chinese developers have already considered external suspension of long-range cruise missiles, such as Israel's "Harop," which has a length of 2.5 meters, and through a composite rack, can be increased to 15 units, but the form changes from internal "dispersion" to external exposure, increasing aerodynamic resistance by 10% and reducing the range accordingly.
In the global drone ecosystem, the "Jiu Tian"'s hive design draws inspiration from the TB2 coordination tactics in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, but scales it up, aiming to compress the enemy's decision-making chain.
The Ukrainian media emphasizes that the cost logic is key: the estimated cost of a single "Jiu Tian" is $80 million, while each swarm unit costs $100,000, and the interception missile costs $500,000.
Data from the Ukraine-Russia conflict shows that under saturation conditions, the loss rate of air defense exceeds 75%, but the first loss of the mother ship will collapse the entire system. With a 95% self-sufficiency rate in the Chinese supply chain, from upstream materials to downstream AI, the R&D cycle is shortened by 30%, providing a foundation for iteration.
The media suggests that if paired with a J-20 formation escort, the swarm potential can be unleashed; however, single-machine operations carry high risks. Compared to the 1-ton payload of the US X-47B, the "Jiu Tian" fills the gap of an internal cabin, promoting distributed production, reducing costs by 20%.
Tactically, Ukrainian analysis suggests that the "Jiu Tian" could learn from the Russian fiber-optic FPV interference resistance, but the cabin needs upgrades to humidity control to avoid a 10% increase in the failure rate of the munitions. Unlike previous generations, its short takeoff and landing capability supports the 076 amphibious carrier, promoting sea-air integration, but the release process at low altitude makes it vulnerable to being hit by portable weapons.
Simulations show that the survival rate inside the intrusion circle is less than 20%; however, the external suspension of glide bombs increases it to 70%. This reveals the gap between the concept and practical implementation of the mother ship, yet it confirms the potential for long-range strike: a 7,000 km range covers the Asia-Pacific region, and when combined with long-range munitions, it expands the intelligence network.
China's drone technology has made significant progress over the past decade. In 2015, the BZK-005 had a range of only 1,000 kilometers, with limited information fusion; the "Jiu Tian" supports multi-drone coordination via satellite links, real-time target assignment, and a 50% reduction in intervention. The Yilong upgraded from 2 tons to 6 tons, emphasizing reconnaissance and strike, but without a hive; the "Jiu Tian" uses AI decision-making to adapt to the terrain of the Taiwan Strait.
The media acknowledges the intercontinental potential, but reminds that stealth iteration is needed: the next generation may use hydrogen fuel, extending the range beyond 10,000 kilometers, solving the volume problem. Compared to the Indo-Pacific air defense network, the "Jiu Tian" needs an electronic warfare cabin to suppress radar.
The article concludes by reiterating that traditional armaments remain the core: cruise missiles with a range of 200 kilometers ensure withdrawal. This balance is precisely the path from static to flight that China has taken.
After the maiden flight of the "Jiu Tian," China has advanced team trials, accumulating 80 flight hours. By December 2025, it participated in a South China Sea drill, verifying the intelligence link, supporting the takeoff and landing of the 076 ship. The scale of the industrial chain has increased by 25%, strengthening the delivery capability. This progress responds to the criticism, pushing the transition from the mother ship concept to a multi-domain platform.
Although the analysis of Ukrainian media focuses on limitations, it points the way for the "Jiu Tian." In the future battlefield dominated by drones, this platform will integrate swarms and traditional strikes, responding to global challenges.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/7580338218341401128/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.