【Text/Observer Net Columnist Anton Nireman, Translation/ Xue Kaihuan】

In June, due to the conflict between Israel and Iran, Ukraine has been forgotten by many, but the difficulties Ukraine faces have not decreased:

There are rumors of government personnel reshuffles, and the resignation of Prime Minister Shmyhal caused a shock; at the same time, Ukrainian planters are suffering from the dual blows of natural disasters and trade barriers - drought and frost weather have severely damaged crop growth, while European traders are pressuring the Kiev authorities to sell gas at exorbitant prices, placing pressure on Ukraine's economy, which is already facing energy shortages; industry is still declining, and the authorities are dreaming of an "infinite war" with Russia, etc.

Cutting social security

Some departments in Ukraine have failed to fulfill their functions fully, some even going against their set goals. A typical example is the Ministry of Social Policy, which has a reputation for anti-social actions, and its successive leaders have shown obvious contempt for Ukrainian society.

The Ministry of Social Policy oversees the State Service for Labor Issues in Ukraine, the State Pension Fund of Ukraine, and the State Service for Social Services in Ukraine. Since 2014, the goal of this ministry's policies has been to cut social security spending as much as possible, and after 2022, it mainly operates with Western funds.

Minister of Social Policy Oksana Zorinovych recently said at a sustainable development forum: "We must break all current social security and start over to re-establish the social contract in the field of national social policy. Many citizens are, in a way, infants, and we need to break this philosophy."

The Ministry of Social Policy now adheres to the principle of "destroying all social security." Zorinovych also stated that receiving low wages on time is the most humiliating, and Ukrainians should not rely on it but should find their own way to survive. She graduated from Lviv National University and was funded by the U.S. National Democratic Institute (NDI). Her predecessor, Andriy Reva, had previously accused his compatriots of eating too much during the Poroshenko era because Ukraine's social food expenditure exceeded 50% of the average income.

Last year, Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal stated that Ukraine relied on U.S. (Biden administration) support to fulfill social security obligations. However, after the change in the U.S. government, Trump cut funding for the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), causing several U.S. aid projects to be suspended. The Ukrainian Ministry of Social Policy was very worried about this, and Zorinovych hoped the EU and the UK would take over the funding for Ukraine's social security.

Recently, the Ministry of Social Policy announced that nearly 4 billion USD is needed to restore Ukraine's social security system. In comparison, the total amount of weapons aid promised by NATO (though not yet fulfilled) is lower than this number. It should be noted that this department wants to get this huge sum from Western partners, but they will not use it to increase pensions and social security, but to repair the offices of the Ministry of Social Policy and promote "digital work." The department will allocate a large amount of funds for its own activities, holding numerous forums and meetings, developing plans and programs to cut social security.

On October 2, 2023, Ukrainian soldiers received treatment at a psychological trauma rehabilitation center in Kharkiv, Ukraine.

The Kyiv authorities hope Western donors will cover this money, but the US and Europe no longer provide such funds to the authorities. Considering the tax collapse and fiscal deficit, Ukraine is unable to afford the basic needs of social security.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Social Policy particularly opposes internally displaced residents. Zorinovych complained that there are about a million internally displaced residents, most of whom are elderly, with 63,000 receiving assistance (2,000 hryvnias per month). Therefore, the Ministry of Social Policy has been trying every month to cancel their assistance. Starting July 1, the rules for applying for assistance have been tightened, requiring internally displaced residents to travel around to obtain proof that they have not received humanitarian aid from other Western funds to receive 2,000 hryvnias.

The authorities currently owe 80 billion hryvnias in compensation to pensioners, and these numbers are only calculated based on the amount of compensation for defeated cases. Over the past year, pension debt has increased by 20%. Court decisions to pay debts are ignored, and debts accumulate year after year.

Other than pensioners, orphans also suffer from the policies of the Ukrainian Ministry of Social Policy. Recently, Zorinovych proposed a pilot program to deprive adult orphans of housing security. There are about 42,000 adult orphans in Ukraine, many of whom depend on housing security to survive.

The authorities claim they have no money to provide public housing for them. Most orphans lack family support, social relationships, and work experience, making it difficult for them to find high-paying jobs to repay mortgages. Most adult orphans try to leave Ukraine immediately, which further reduces the labor force and tax revenue for Ukraine.

On June 24, Zorinovych of the Ukrainian Ministry of Social Policy said that at least 3.5 million Ukrainians are in a "idle state," including a large number of pensioners, disabled people, and women caring for children. Zorinovych is dissatisfied with the fact that a large population has become a recipient of social security due to the war, believing that they should return to the job market to avoid "feeling discriminated against." The real intention is to cancel their deserved benefits and social security. Obviously, Ukraine cannot afford the necessary social security measures for millions of disabled people and families of the fallen.

The Ukrainian Telegram channel "Media Killer" commented that restoring the social security system not only lacks money but also lacks labor force. And Ukraine now lacks manpower: young men either die on the battlefield or go abroad to contribute to the Polish and German social security systems.

Overall, the Ukrainian Ministry of Social Policy systematically implements anti-social policies. Any argument about protecting the rights of vulnerable groups in this department will trigger empty accusations of "Soviet remnants," as if any social security measure is something that must be discarded as "Soviet remnants." The task of Ukrainians is to die for the Zelenskyy regime, but if they survive, they should not ask for pensions and relief, because that is "Soviet remnants."

Political Turmoil

Recently, the Ukrainian media was shaken by a piece of news: Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal is about to resign, and the Economic Minister Yulia Sviridenko will take over.

This news was disclosed by MP Zheliznyak, who is known for first disclosing details of the "mineral transaction" signed by Sviridenko on the authority side.

Zheliznyak said that Shmyhal's resignation will be in a "voluntary" form. Zelenskyy denied this rumor, but the rumor about the ambitions of Zelenskyy's chief of staff Yermak has not been heard for the first time. Yermak has concentrated actual power in his hands for years, controlling the entire bureaucracy, which has caused dissatisfaction from both the US Democratic and Republican parties.

However, the rumor about Shmyhal's personnel adjustment did not subside. Ukrainian MP Gancharenko expressed hope that the head of the Security Service, Malyuk, would be appointed as the Minister of Defense, and the current Minister of Defense, Umerov, would be sent to the United States as an ambassador to replace the current ambassador to the United States, Oksana Markarova, who has been repeatedly asked by the US to resign. Subsequently, Gancharenko revealed that Shmyhal would be replaced by Sviridenko from July 7 to 8.

Denys Shmyhal (left) and Yulia Sviridenko (right)

At the same time, there were rumors of defection of the Ukrainian Minister of National Unity, Alexei Chernyshov. The source of the rumor came from a dismissal proposal and criminal prosecution initiated by the State Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) against him. Later, the media reported that there was a "high-level defector" within the authorities, and Zelenskyy had to urgently deny the news.

Zelenskyy said that Chernyshov had not fled, but had not returned from a business trip. The rumor said that in order to make Chernyshov return, Zelenskyy sent his closest friend Timur Mndyich to meet with Chernyshov. Media reports said that Chernyshov was a person of Mndyich, who did a lot of work to persuade him back and assured him that his criminal case would be transferred from the State Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) to the law enforcement agencies controlled by Zelenskyy's office, where the case would be left unresolved. Chernyshov eventually returned and claimed that someone was trying to defame him.

Whether Chernyshov would be imprisoned or the case would eventually be dropped, and when and how the government would carry out personnel adjustments, it is now possible to draw several conclusions.

Firstly, the financial basis of the Kyiv authorities is shrinking. Deputy Minister of Finance Olga Tsykova said that in the past six months, Ukraine has received less than half of the funds planned for reconstruction this year: only 7.4 billion dollars.

Funds from the United States have almost stopped, and it is unlikely to resume. The EU has not decided how much to allocate to Ukraine and has not shown willingness to compensate for the loss of American aid. This means that competition for funds within the Ukrainian government will become more intense, like a cruel joke: "Son, you have to eat less now."

The greed of the Kyiv authorities has not changed: reports indicate that the Kyiv authorities siphon off 137 million hryvnias weekly from the supply of military materials, totaling 7.1 billion hryvnias annually. This is a conservative estimate in the context of an annual war fund gap of 500 billion hryvnias.

Secondly, appointing Malyuk as the Minister of Defense means that the Ukrainian army will give up more regular military operations and conduct more cross-border attacks. With frequent problems on the front lines, the Kyiv authorities will intensify cross-border attacks. The logic is simple: without real victories, media "victories" must be created. In addition, the escalation of other regional situations (such as Iran and Israel) forces Zelenskyy to distort the form of Western support to keep their attention on himself and Ukraine.

The Chernyshov case has dealt a strong blow to Zelenskyy, exposing the truth that he appears tough but is actually weak, and he cannot fully control his closest people and circle. The truth of the Chernyshov case is not important, what matters is that a precedent has been set.

Religious Freedom

Since the 2014 Maidan Square color revolution in Ukraine, the phenomenon of social militarization, restrictions on religious freedom, and extreme nationalism has become increasingly severe. Former Ukrainian President Poroshenko even proposed the formula of "army, language, faith," attempting to use these tools to shape Ukraine's policy framework, and Zelenskyy later inherited this approach.

In Ukraine, one of the tools used to persecute the Orthodox Church is the State Department of Ethnic Affairs and Freedom of Conscience (DESS). This agency was created by Zelenskyy in June 2019 and is now led by Viktor Yelensky.

Yelensky is a controversial figure, a politician without principles and an opportunist, who has been exploited by Western institutions. He was born in the Tuva Autonomous Oblast, was a member of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, and wrote a doctoral dissertation on religious sects during the Soviet period. In the 1990s, he studied in American universities for a long time, and during the Orange Revolution in 2004, he led the "Radio Free Europe" in Kyiv.

Viktor Yelensky

Later, he became a professor at the Ukrainian Catholic University (known as the "cradle of the Square Revolution"), and after the 2014 Maidan Square revolution, he became an advisor to Arseniy Yatsenyuk (then Prime Minister) and served as a member of his "People's Front" party. In 2019, he joined former Prime Minister Vladimir Groisman, but failed to enter the Verkhovna Rada through his recommendation. In 2022, Western forces, or more accurately, "Soros forces," recommended him to Zelenskyy to serve as the head of DESS.

It can be said that Yelensky's rise and strategies represent the will of the West to destroy Ukraine's Orthodox Church system. Because Orthodox priests generally do not bless inter-ethnic hatred ("there is neither Greek nor Jew, circumcised nor uncircumcised, slave nor free"), so such priests have become a thorn in the side of the Kyiv authorities. Yelensky once openly referred to the Orthodox Church as a threat to "national security."

In fact, radical nationalists in Ukraine regularly attack churches, loot, beat monks and older women, and these acts have been tacitly approved by the authorities, especially DESS. Cutting religious ties is a need of the authorities' policy of enmity towards Russia and a long-term strategy of the West, which is very skilled in inciting religious conflicts globally. As Ukraine has become synonymous with anti-Russia, holding a neutral attitude toward Russians or simply refusing to be hostile is seen as a threat to "national security" by the Kyiv authorities.

Recently, DESS published a list of religious organizations, whose senior members can be exempted from conscription into the Ukrainian armed forces. The list includes 7,736 institutions, but none of the Orthodox Church's churches or monasteries are included, directly indicating that the Kyiv authorities have a clear discriminatory stance based on religious beliefs toward the clergy of the Orthodox Church.

According to the Orthodox Journalists' Union, on June 11 alone, the headquarters of the Ukrainian Armed Forces abducted two clergy members of the Orthodox Church and sent them to the front line. They were Father Pavlutyus of the Pochaev Lavra Monastery and Father Alexander of the Church of Paraskivia in Volya village, Volyn region. At the same time, the Orthodox Journalists' Union pointed out that this act was particularly hypocritical given the statement by Prime Minister Shmyhal that the government "is taking measures to cooperate with the church and continues to implement initiatives to support religious organizations."

The Chief of the Presidential Administration, Andriy Yermak, tried to convince U.S. congressmen and representatives of the Trump administration in his recent visit to Washington that "all clergy members of the Orthodox Church are FSB agents" of the Russian Federation. Meanwhile, the head of the international human rights company "Amsterdam & Partners" representing the legal interests of the Orthodox Church, American Robert Amsterdam, became a defendant in a series of criminal cases brought by the Kyiv authorities, accused of "disrupting religious stability."

Yermak wanted to convince the Trump administration of this narrative because Yelensky's activities of placing the Orthodox Church outside the law violated the constitution. For this reason, Ukraine might be listed as a country with restricted religious freedom, thus losing any financial and military aid from the United States.

Recently, the cabinet of Shmyhal submitted a bill to combat anti-Semitism, equating criticism of Israeli state actions with "anti-Semitism." At the same time, the Verkhovna Rada passed another resolution, commending nationalists and Nazis involved in anti-Semitic actions. The bill to combat anti-Semitism was proposed to be implemented by DESS led by Viktor Yelensky.

Sarcasm lies in the fact that in the late Soviet period, the shrewd Yelensky once wrote an article titled "Judaism, theocratic politics, and Zionism." "The alliance between Judaism, theocratic politics, and Zionism endowed Judaism, especially its Israeli version, with racist, chauvinistic, and expansionist characteristics, and made its anti-communist and anti-Soviet content the main connotation," Yelensky wrote in his work. Now, he would surely say that he was forced to write these words under KGB threats.

In 2019, as a member of the "People's Front" party, Yelensky shamelessly claimed that in Ukraine, the Ukrainian language was suppressed, and many Ukrainians did not have the freedom to speak Ukrainian before the "Square Revolution." In June 2025, Yelensky gave a speech in the U.S. Senate, claiming that only Russia infringes on religious freedom. According to him, the Russian Orthodox Church persecuted its own clergy, as many of them were "aligned with Ukraine."

In the 1980s, Yelensky described the Ukrainian nationalist and autonomous church as follows: "The Ukrainian autonomous Orthodox Church, created by stubborn bourgeois nationalists, became a center after the suppression of the counter-revolution, around which nationalist elements opposing the Soviet regime gathered." Now, Yelensky claims that he is fighting for "defending Ukraine." This is consistent with the usual style of the Kyiv authorities: since 2014, in Ukraine, any criticism of the authorities and extreme nationalists is met with the excuse of "don't look at us, look at Russia."

In 2019, Yelensky tried to incite protests in Georgia and promoted the idea that Russia was "aggressing" against Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova, which are Orthodox countries, before the special military operation.

Viktor Yelensky and his DESS remain a model of cunning and hypocrisy. This "religious scholar" and opportunist is still used by the Kyiv authorities as a sharp tool to persecute the true Orthodox Church. If the Kyiv authorities asked DESS and Yelensky tomorrow to issue a statement saying that the majority of believers in Ukraine have been supporters of the Anglican Church since ancient times, he would not hesitate to acknowledge it.

"Total War"

June 5 was the deadline for male citizens of Ukraine deemed fit for service to undergo supplementary medical examinations at the military registration and conscription offices. It is unclear how many people actually participated in the examination, but according to statements by officials, 99% of those with limited physical capacity will be deemed "fit for service." Those who did not participate in the examination will automatically be classified as "fit for service" or directly labeled as deserters, facing the risk of being arrested and "bus conscription" (forced onto a bus to the front line).

At the same time, the chairman of the "People's Servant" faction of the Ukrainian Supreme Council, David阿拉哈米亚 (who also holds U.S. citizenship, registered as David Brown), submitted a bill suggesting that individuals without military registration documents, those who have not completed military registration, those who have not clarified personal information, or those under the investigation of the General Prosecutor's Office could be employed in key enterprises and work. On the surface, the intent of this bill is to clean up marginalized groups who have been out of government management and in the shadow economy. This is clearly an alternative way to supplement frontline troops.

However, the probability of this bill passing is low. Even if it is passed, the marginalized groups who have long been in a vacuum of power and know the "meat grinder" nature of the Kyiv authorities (being forcibly sent to the front line to be "ground up") will have very little willingness to apply for legal status. From 2022 to 2024, a large number of older university students avoided conscription by various means and stayed in school, but later they were expelled and conscripted into the army. These cases have already shown what happens to those who voluntarily "expose" themselves. The Kyiv authorities have admitted that their weapon needs can only be satisfied by 40%, and this is conditional on the continued and sufficient support of Western aid. Therefore, the authorities allow enterprises providing supplies to the Ukrainian army to increase the proportion of "exemption from conscription protection" for their employees from the previous 50% to 100%. How this relaxation will work in practice is unclear, but it is certain that this measure will lead to more corruption phenomena as companies strive to sign contracts with the Ukrainian army.

Ukrainian men are violently arrested and conscripted into the army

Additionally, the Ukrainian Supreme Council submitted a bill on "national resistance." According to Iryna Vereshchuk, deputy head of the presidential office (former minister of occupied territories), the bill requires all Ukrainians, regardless of gender, to participate in the war against Russia and emphasizes that this war is "infinite," even requiring the children and grandchildren of contemporary Ukrainians to continue fighting.

According to Vereshchuk's plan, this "national resistance organization" will recruit members through compulsory and semi-compulsory methods. Except for civil servants, almost all citizens will need to receive combat training guided by experienced veterans at national training centers. This operating model inevitably reminds people of the Nazi Stormtroopers of the late stages of World War II - the Nazi Stormtroopers tried to save the German army's defeat, while now the Kyiv authorities seem to expect similar things to prolong their rule until the last Ukrainian is consumed, which is their goal.

Industrial Decline

Daniel Hetmanets, chairman of the Ukrainian Parliament's Committee on Budget, Taxation, and Customs Policy, estimates that through economic "shadow reduction" measures, the state budget will increase by 4 billion dollars this year, while the figure was 2.5 billion dollars last year. Hetmanets estimates that the size of the gray economy in Ukraine is 800-900 billion hryvnias annually, accounting for 30-60% of the total. To this end, the authorities will impose stricter penalties on enterprises and citizens engaged in the gray economy. In the first four months of 2025, the tax authorities conducted over 6,500 inspections of companies selling tobacco products, and the fines imposed on them increased by 87.7% compared to the same period last year (116.2 million hryvnias).

Additionally, the Kyiv authorities have reduced the transfer limit without presenting identity documents from the original 150,000 hryvnias to 100,000 hryvnias, regardless of whether the transfer is done via bank account number, mobile phone number, or IBAN (International Bank Account Number). For particularly suspicious transactions, the limit will be further reduced to 50,000 hryvnias. The new limit does not apply to cash withdrawals, payments for goods and services (including utilities), transfers between personal accounts, and transfers between company accounts. Using passports and documents proving citizens' income can bypass the limit, but the limit for each customer will be automatically set by the bank. All these will actually lead to more funds flowing into the shadow economy.

Meanwhile, the largest transportation logistics company in Ukraine, "New Post" (Novapshta), has announced that if its customers frequently receive package fees through cash-on-delivery and are not registered as individual entrepreneurs, they will restrict fund transfers through its payment system Novapay. These restrictions are not decided by the company itself, but are forced by the authorities, who are trying to extract more money from Ukrainians engaged in entrepreneurship but not paying taxes.

At the same time, the authorities are collecting fines and creating new taxes. In April of this year, even some officials proposed taxing people who sell second-hand goods online. Now, the "second-hand economy" in Ukraine is very hot, people buy clothes in second-hand stores and then put them on online platforms, hoping to earn some living expenses. By the way, many people also buy discounted items from China, such as socks, batteries, or sunglasses, and then resell them on second-hand retail websites at a small markup. Although these items are not many in quantity, they can sometimes provide very necessary support for a family during difficult times.

Quarterly GDP changes in Ukraine from 2021 to 2024

While the authorities announced that the "economy has come out of the crisis," the industrial sector in Ukraine is still continuing to decline: in the first quarter of 2025, the gross industrial output value of Ukraine fell by 6.1%.

Among them, mining dropped by 20% (the production of metal ores decreased by 4%, oil and gas decreased by 15%, and coal decreased by 42%). The significant decline in the energy sector is attributed to the Russian air strikes that destroyed 40% of Ukraine's gas capacity (this is the official statement of the authorities), as well as the loss of the coking coal mine near Krasnoyarsk, and the global decline in the price of iron ore raw materials, leading to Ukraine's current exports of iron ore barely profitable or even at a loss. At the same time, the value of the petroleum refining industry decreased by 19.9%. The manufacturing industry value decreased by 2.1%. The food industry value decreased by 12.3%, with a comprehensive decline in the production of oils, flour, bread, and sugar, among which the production of sugar decreased by 84%.

Other News

The United Nations report states that 7 million Ukrainian citizens have become refugees abroad, and another 100,000 have left Ukraine since the beginning of this year.

In the 2024/25 sales year, Ukraine exported 38 million tons of grains and legumes, a decrease of 22.5% compared to the previous sales year. Among them, wheat exports decreased by 3 million tons, and corn exports decreased by 6.1 million tons.

Zelenskyy finally admitted that the Russian Aerospace Forces' strikes on underground gas storage facilities and gas fields were effective (as mentioned earlier), and estimated the gas shortage to be approximately 2 billion euros, with 1 billion euros of the shortage having no good solution. Zelenskyy hopes Norway will provide assistance to Ukraine. In this context, the price of natural gas for enterprises has risen sharply, from 18,180 hryvnias per thousand cubic meters on May 1 to 22,644 hryvnias per thousand cubic meters on May 28. The price increase has no upper limit, and once it exceeds a certain threshold, natural gas consumption enterprises will go bankrupt.

The "book scandal" has escalated. Three thousand copies of six new editions of works by American author Sophie Lark were destroyed, with the charge being her "anti-Ukrainian and pro-Russian statements." Book publishers and authors have become victims of the authorities' extreme nationalism.

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