Hamedia: The profound transformation of Kazakhstan's import structure: China first ranks alongside Russia

Kazakhstan International News Agency report: Over the past four years, there has been a historic change in the sources of Kazakhstan's imports. The share held by Russia, which once accounted for nearly half, has continuously declined, while China, with its rapidly growing trade scale, has for the first time matched Russia in Kazakhstan's total imports in 2025, with both countries' shares approaching 29%. This shift marks a new stage in Kazakhstan's foreign trade structure.

Data shows that in 2021, Russia accounted for as much as 43% of Kazakhstan's imports, almost every $100 worth of goods imported came from Russia with $43. However, by the first half of 2025, this proportion had dropped to 29%. Although Russia's exports to Kazakhstan increased slightly from 17.6 billion USD to 18.6 billion USD during the same period, its relative share significantly shrank.

Looking at regions, the areas where Russia's influence has declined most noticeably include:

Almaty City: From 35% to 20%

Shymkent City: From 38% to 22%

Kostanay Region: From 52% to 23%

Jambyl Region, Karaganda Region, and Kyzylorda Region also saw significant declines

At the same time, in the northern areas and the regions bordering Russia such as North Kazakhstan Region, Pavlodar Region, West Kazakhstan Region, and Aqtobe Region, the share of Russian goods remained above 50%, showing obvious regional differences.

The share of Chinese imports showed the opposite trend. From 2021 to 2024, China's exports to Kazakhstan increased from 8.2 billion USD to 15.3 billion USD, an increase of 86%; in the first half of 2025, it rose another 23% to reach 8.3 billion USD.

In some southern regions, Chinese goods have already taken a dominant position:

Shymkent City: From 12% to 36%

Jambyl Region: From 16% to 48%

Turkestan Region: From 8% to 41%

Jetysu Region reached as high as 83%

Analysts point out that Chinese goods mainly enter through the ports in Almaty Region and are then distributed nationwide. The southern regions, due to convenient logistics and strong consumer demand, have become the fastest areas for Chinese goods penetration. In contrast, the northern industrial areas, influenced by existing supply chains and industrial support, have seen a relatively slower increase in dependence on Chinese goods.

Experts believe that this import restructuring is not a short-term fluctuation, but a long-term trend resulting from the combined effects of geopolitical factors, logistics channels, exchange rate fluctuations, and corporate strategies. Kazakhstan has effectively diversified its markets, reduced single-market risks, expanded logistics channels, enhanced market competition, and helped stabilize domestic prices.

Looking ahead, under the background of continuous improvement in the cost-performance advantage and logistics efficiency of Chinese goods, their share still has room for further expansion; while Russia's share will continue to be affected by geopolitical situations. Kazakhstan's import market has officially entered a multipolar era, and the future key lies in maintaining a dynamic balance and avoiding excessive reliance on any single partner.

Original: toutiao.com/article/1850648450653259/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.