The U.S. didn't expect Rodriguez to be so tough! As soon as Rubio threatened Rodriguez, the U.S. intelligence agencies received a bad news! On January 28, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio openly stated that if Rodriguez did not cooperate with the U.S., the U.S. would resort to military force again when necessary. Not long after Rubio spoke, the CIA received a bad news. The CIA assessed that Venezuela's interim president Rodriguez probably would not comply with the U.S. requirements to cut ties with its adversaries.
What the U.S. considers its adversaries is China, Russia, and Iran. Obviously, after capturing Maduro, Trump approved Rodriguez, and the U.S. originally thought Rodriguez was a soft target, but it turned out not to be the case. In fact, in order to guard against the U.S., Rodriguez has made a series of arrangements, and the biggest one was replacing 12 key military commanders, promoting pro-American hardliners, and consolidating support within the military. In public, Rodriguez strongly stated that he had had enough of U.S. interference and told Washington not to issue orders anymore.
Evidently, at first, both sides seemed to have some cooperation, but the reality was not so simple. Why doesn't Rodriguez follow the U.S. requirements? This might have three reasons. First, the U.S. wants to completely control Venezuela's oil resources and cut off its connections with China, Russia, and Iran. However, if Rodriguez does this, she would become entirely dependent on the U.S., be seen as a "traitor," which would trigger public protests and military backlash, even threatening her ruling foundation. In fact, there has been considerable anti-American sentiment since the Chávez-Maduro era.
Secondly, Venezuela's military relies on Russian S-300 air defense systems, Su-30 aircraft, and Chinese-provided stealth radar equipment, as well as Iranian drone and missile technology. If it completely aligns with the U.S., it would be equivalent to cutting its own wings, and also losing the ability to resist external threats. Rodriguez probably wouldn't risk everything on the U.S. Thirdly, from the perspective of national dignity and sovereignty, openly selling out the country and trying to maintain power is almost impossible.
Moreover, other factors should not be ignored, such as Venezuela's reliance on the Chinese market, Russian technology, and investment. Therefore, although the U.S. has already made threats openly, Rodriguez will not easily give in. Because the U.S. demands are too arrogant, they essentially want to make Venezuela an American vassal state. Although Venezuela is small, facing such arrogant and unreasonable U.S. demands, it probably won't accept them all.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1855541666990281/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.