Reference News Network, August 20 report - According to the Russian "Viewpoint" newspaper website, August 14 report, the United States is continuing to upgrade its missile defense system. According to Western media reports, the U.S. ambitious "Groundbreaker" system will be divided into four layers, with a total cost of up to $175 billion. Experts believe that the U.S. massive reinforcement of the missile defense system will force Russia to re-examine its implementation strategy for nuclear deterrence against the U.S.

The United States has revealed details of the "Groundbreaker" missile defense system. The system will be divided into four layers: one space-based layer and three land-based layers, with 11 short-range missile launch systems distributed across the U.S. mainland, Alaska, and Hawaii.

Reuters said that the "Groundbreaker" system under construction is technically very complex, with an estimated total cost of $175 billion. The system is expected to be completed in 2028.

The "Groundbreaker" plan is basically aimed at establishing a multi-layered missile defense system to protect the U.S. mainland, but the "Groundbreaker" system is not impervious. In case of necessity, Russia will launch a large number of decoys and jamming devices, and use physical countermeasures targeting components of the missile defense system. In this way, Moscow can break through the U.S.'s most powerful missile defense system.

Alexei Ampilov, chairman of the "Foundation" Foundation, which supports the development of scientific research and civil initiatives in Russia, said: "The global nuclear deterrence system of any country consists of offensive and defensive capabilities. These two parts are closely related and work together, and the overall effectiveness of the entire system depends on the quality of these two parts."

He explained: "Therefore, if one party in a potential conflict has a large number of attack warheads and intercept missiles, it becomes very important for the other party to 'launch first,' as this ensures the attacker's advantage and higher survival probability. This phenomenon is called the 'security dilemma,' where actions taken by a country to strengthen its own defense can be seen as a potential danger by its rival."

Ampilov said: "In fact, the current White House is trying to significantly expand the components of the deterrent system, which is a heavy burden for both sides. The threat Russia faces is obvious: if the U.S. defense system becomes extremely strong, it will maximize the reduction of losses the U.S. may suffer when Russia retaliates. Therefore, preemptive tactics may be beneficial to Washington."

"Of course, the deployment of 'Groundbreaker' will force Russia to take equal countermeasures. Russia can completely replace existing attack weapons by deploying a large number of 'Avangard' hypersonic missiles. In addition, the New START Treaty is due to expire next year," he added.

Ampilov said: "This document has long restricted the increase in the number of Russian weapons. Considering that the domestic situation in the U.S. has changed, Russia may decide not to extend the treaty. In this way, this 'security dilemma' will be eliminated by the possibility of larger-scale attacks."

"Moreover, the experience gained from the special military operation has given the Russian armed forces a wealth of data on the working principles and weaknesses of their own missile defense system. Therefore, Russia may also significantly expand the protected area, such as placing the entire European part of the country under protection," said the expert.

He also said that just days before the meeting between Putin and Trump, detailed information about the operating mode of "Groundbreaker" suddenly emerged, "probably someone is using this method to alert the public about some topics of the leaders' meeting."

"At the same time, Trump is now acting in the style of former President Reagan, using abstract threats to pressure Russia, but the cost of the response measures I have listed is only a fraction of the cost of 'Groundbreaker'. Therefore, in my opinion, Russia can achieve the optimal deterrence plan in its dialogue with the U.S.," Ampilov said.

Vadim Kozulin, director of the Center for Global Studies and International Relations at the Institute of Contemporary International Problems of the Russian Foreign Ministry Academy, believes that the outside world should take into account that the "Groundbreaker" plan has become the basis for Trump's communication with voters, "that is to say, in a sense, it is Trump's flagship plan, and he obviously does not want to give it up at this stage. The high-profile announcement of this plan may become the starting point for Russia and the U.S. to begin discussing the establishment of mutually acceptable mutual deterrence rules." (Translated by Zhao Zhipeng)

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7540533388734677556/

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