Direct News: What are your thoughts on the deadlock in the tariff negotiations between Japan and South Korea with the United States?

Special Commentator Liu Peace: The negotiations between Japan and the United States have entered their third round, while the talks between South Korea and the United States have completed their second round. However, so far, no meaningful progress has been made, let alone any breakthroughs.

In my opinion, the current deadlock in the tariff negotiations between Japan, South Korea, and the United States is mainly due to the high similarity in the tariff war games between these two countries and the United States.

Firstly, both Japan and South Korea are highly developed manufacturing economies that rely heavily on the U.S. market. In terms of trade products, they maintain a significant surplus with the United States. Moreover, these two countries are staunch allies of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region and depend on American protection for security. This is why the Trump administration chose to negotiate with Japan and South Korea first, as they believed these "soft targets" would be easier to handle.

Secondly, since Trump initiated this century-long tariff war, the tariff rates imposed on Japan and South Korea by the United States have been basically identical. On April 2nd, the U.S. announced an "equivalent tariff" of 24% on Japan and 25% on South Korea. Both countries were granted a three-month tariff exemption starting April 9th, meaning only a 10% basic tariff would be applied during this period, with the remaining tariffs to be negotiated later. Therefore, the greatest confusion facing Japan and South Korea is not this 10% basic tariff but rather the additional 25% car tariffs and 25% steel and aluminum product tariffs previously imposed by Trump. Since the U.S. is the main export destination for Japan and South Korea's cars and steel/aluminum products, this move by the Trump administration indeed had a significant impact on their economies and pushed them into a situation of shared misfortune.

Thirdly, the U.S. tariff bullying measures against Japan and South Korea have simultaneously sparked nationalist sentiment domestically in both countries, with voices emerging calling for reflection on their alliances and deep ties with the U.S. Moreover, South Korea is set to hold its presidential election in about ten days, and Japan will also hold its Upper House election in July. This makes it difficult for both governments to make concessions to the U.S. easily. Consequently, the tariff negotiations between Japan, South Korea, and the U.S. have simultaneously reached a deadlock.

Direct News: So, in your view, what will be the next direction for this tariff war between Japan, South Korea, and the U.S.?

Special Commentator Liu Peace: I noticed that since Trump announced the tariff war against 185 economies worldwide on April 2nd, many countries have been in a state of panic, especially Japan, India, Vietnam, and other economies in Asia. They have been eager to negotiate with the U.S. However, interestingly, over 50 days have passed, and not only have relevant countries like Japan, South Korea, and India slowed down their negotiation pace with the U.S., but their attitudes have also become increasingly firm.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba publicly stated that "there is no need to rush to reach an agreement with the U.S."; Japan's chief trade negotiator and Minister for Economic Revitalization, Akira Amari, declared that there would be no unilateral concessions to the U.S. Li Jaiming, the candidate with the highest poll numbers in the current South Korean presidential election, also claimed that there was no need to rush into a trade agreement with the U.S., and that the interests of South Korea must be prioritized in negotiations. Even Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, who has repeatedly been rumored to be close to reaching an agreement with the U.S., said, "It is clearly premature to conclude that an agreement will be reached with the U.S."

At the same time, among the 185 economies globally, only the UK has reached an economic and trade agreement with the U.S., and China and the U.S. have only reached a three-month "ceasefire" agreement. Apart from that, no economy has reached an agreement with the U.S., and there hasn't even been any progress in tariff negotiations. And as I predicted earlier, in the face of Trump's tariff war, around 180 other economies have chosen to "lie flat," adopting a "non-confrontation, non-compromise, non-negotiation" policy towards the U.S.

I believe this means that 99% of the 185 economies targeted by Trump's announcement to impose high tariffs have unanimously chosen to resist the U.S. softly. This is why Trump called Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and urged a quick resolution of the tariff agreement between the U.S. and Japan. It is also why U.S. Treasury Secretary Bostin threatened that if other economies did not quickly reach agreements with the U.S., the U.S. would restore the highest equivalent tariff rate announced by Trump on April 2nd.

In my view, all of this can only indicate that the Trump administration has fallen into extreme anxiety in the face of this tariff resistance movement led by the majority of economies. Because in recent days, not only has Moody's downgraded America's credit rating, but U.S. 20-year treasury bonds have also become unsellable, and the signs of a shrinking U.S. economy have become increasingly evident. Under these circumstances, I personally predict that as long as the other economies continue to adhere to the correct response approach of "non-confrontation, non-compromise, non-negotiation," the Trump administration will soon be unable to sustain itself in this century-long tariff war and will ultimately be forced to retreat in disarray. I believe that the signs of America's defeat are already apparent and very obvious.

Author | Liu Peace

Layout | Li Shuo

Editor | Lai Chenlu

Proofreader | Zeng Zijin

Supervisor | Chi Wei

Original Article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7507614291101614619/

Disclaimer: This article represents the author's personal views. Please express your opinions by clicking the 'Agree' or 'Disagree' button below.