President Trump has drastically changed his tone, now saying he wants to help Ukraine reclaim its territory, which sharply contrasts with his previous insistence on ending the war within 24 hours.

Trump's initial strategic vision was to withdraw from the Ukrainian battlefield, leaving European affairs to NATO and the EU, and even selling Ukraine to Russia in order to focus on containing China.

However, reality quickly shattered this plan. The conflict did not stop but became more intense, forcing Trump to take over Biden's mess and make a tough statement against Russia.

This situation is not the first time.

During Bush's era, he was bogged down in Afghanistan.

Obama wanted to return to Asia-Pacific, but was caught up in Middle Eastern wars.

Trump's first term aimed to conclude the trade war with China, but was undermined by the pandemic and internal unrest.

Biden wanted to unite Europe against China, but was completely tied down by the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

As for Trump's second term, the situation would be even more complicated, with internal chaos increasing, the Ukraine-Russia conflict escalating, and Israel acting recklessly in the Middle East. What could he do to counter China?

Trump

All of this is deeply influenced by historical inertia, a point that is often overlooked.

This inertia is first reflected in the Ukraine-Russia conflict: the war has never been just a confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, but a war between the entire Western system and Russia, making it impossible for anyone to easily disengage.

Therefore, even though Trump had once firmly promised to end the conflict and have the US step out of it, the result was that he ended up participating in the war, and like Biden, he also claimed to support Ukraine in regaining its lost territories. This is a specific manifestation of historical inertia in war.

This inertia is also reflected in the US strategy towards China: multiple consecutive US presidents have raised their anti-China rhetoric louder and louder, but their actual actions have faced increasingly more setbacks.

Every president wants to fully confront China, but ends up being unable to do so. Failure to oppose China is no longer an occasional mistake by individual American leaders, but a structural inevitability of the US system.

A deeper level of inertia is that China has always been in an excellent strategic position. No matter how long the war continues or how hard the US struggles, China will always be the one that can maintain its composure and expand its influence from the chaos.

Biden and Obama

This kind of inertia essentially highlights the ongoing systemic decline of the United States.

The rise of a superpower usually relies on comprehensive advantages such as resources, credit, allies, and institutions, while its decline is characterized by uncontrollable strategies and fragmented policies.

This is precisely the current situation the US is facing: still wanting to manage the world, but no longer capable of controlling it.

Each president tries to correct the failure of the previous one, only to find themselves dragged into deeper quagmires.

This is the typical path of imperial decline: not a sudden collapse, but a continuous spinning in a series of inertias until resources are exhausted.

This is why Trump has a clear strategic plan with very clear goals, yet he cannot achieve them.

The gap between "being able to do what you want" and "being able to do what you think" is enough to reflect the extent of America's decline.

Ukraine-Russia Conflict

In sharp contrast, China has stepped out of all this because China has not been entangled in the mud of the old order.

China has not joined the Western-led confrontation system, nor inherited the Cold War burdens of the Soviet Union, but instead has taken a new path.

While others are fighting desperately for one front or one piece of land, China is accelerating the development of new energy, artificial intelligence, and high-end manufacturing, shifting the competition to fields where it excels.

While others are busy forming alliances and expanding their militaries, China is promoting the "Belt and Road Initiative," building a community with a shared future for humanity, and accumulating structural advantages in the Global South.

So, the Ukraine-Russia conflict has vividly demonstrated China's wisdom: without firing a single shot, China can continuously gain strategic benefits. Now, the US very much wishes it could be in China's position, but it simply cannot.

This is a fundamental difference between China and the US: the US hopes to play short-term games and make quick money, but as its strength declines, it keeps getting trapped.

What China has shown is not short-term calculations, but long-term wisdom, grasping the big picture and planning for the future. This wisdom.

This forward-looking perspective is the most scarce force in a world full of turbulence.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7553544252178645540/

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