【Military Second Plane】 Author: Feng Yu
According to a report by Russian State News Agency on November 24, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio said after meeting with the Ukrainian side that Russia is part of the plan and they should confirm this plan.
Rubio also mentioned that in the early stages of participation in mediation, the United States started from understanding Russia's position, which was conveyed to him in both written and oral forms.
Previously, Bloomberg reported that the process of formulating this peace plan had nothing to do with Rubio at all; it was handled entirely by Trump and Putin's envoys. Some content of the plan seems to be directly translated from the original Russian requirements.
Rubio probably knew about this plan not much earlier than Ukraine and Europe, and then he went to negotiate with the Ukrainian side.
Looking at it together, Rubio's current meaning is that he, as the highest level representative of the United States negotiating with Ukraine, but he can't make the final decision. What he can decide is just to have a good talk with Ukraine. Whether the modifications proposed by Ukraine can pass is not up to him, nor is it up to the United States. It depends on whether Russia agrees or not.
(Yermak, a close aide of Zelenskyy, and Rubio)
According to the publicly released information after this US-Ukraine meeting, Rubio and Zelenskyy were very satisfied, and it seemed that the talks went well.
The Ukrainian side claimed to have provided some modification suggestions to the United States, and the US apparently did not reject them. It seems that everything is beginning to develop in favor of Ukraine, meaning that the United States has no strict demands, and there is room for discussion. Also, there are reports that the US attitude changes every hour.
However, these are only surface-level appearances.
Rubio stated the most essential point of the current situation: it is not that the United States is not making concessions, but rather that even if the United States makes concessions, it is of no use.
This is why the United States first talks with Ukraine, because the final decision lies with Russia.
Trump would prefer to take the conditions set by Russia, translate them with a machine, and hand them over to Ukraine. What's the use of Ukraine raising more demands?
(Trump's envoys laughing and chatting with Putin)
Putin's stance is clear. When he met with the Security Council, he said that the US proposal could become the basis for mediation, but emphasized that this plan has not been discussed substantially with Russia, which effectively tells the outside world: Russia is willing to talk, but it doesn't mean that what the US says is the final word.
This means that even if Ukraine does not change a single clause of the 28-point agreement, Russia may not accept it directly, and may add other conditions.
Moreover, it seems that Russia is provoking Trump, believing that the US may not be able to convince Ukraine to accept the 28 points.
This gradually takes on a hierarchical tone, where Russia gives orders at the highest level, the US acts as the second level, responsible for executing Russia's commands, and Ukraine and Europe are the lowest level, waiting to receive notifications. They can express dissatisfaction, but in the end, they still have to ask what Russia will do.
If Russia remains completely inflexible, even proposing new demands, the US has no way to respond, and can only continue to pressure Ukraine.
(Field Situation)
As to how things have developed to this point, the reason lies in the battlefield reality repeatedly emphasized by Russia.
Russia has always used the battlefield reality as an argument, demanding that Ukraine must recognize the new reality. These statements are not only to force Ukraine to give up territory, but also to emphasize the strength of the Russian army on the front lines.
This is the most fundamental reality, and also the underlying logic of the Russia-Ukraine conflict: you can't beat me, no matter how much you talk, it's all in vain.
The United States came up with a plan that is completely favorable to Russia, because the United States has accepted this reality. If your military strength on the battlefield is insufficient, what's the use of talking?
Ultimately, the agreement is determined by the battlefield. All these developments will eventually point to the same fact: battlefield strength always determines the content of negotiations.
No matter how much support Europe provides to Ukraine, or how much Ukraine emphasizes its strategic goals, the parts that can be included in the agreement are still the facts on the battlefield.
You can refuse to accept it, but you will face more and more new realities.
(Putin and Trump)
Therefore, the future direction is very clear, and Ukraine can only sign the agreement under pressure. Therefore, during this process, the United States has not really troubled Russia, but instead chose to increase leverage on Ukraine by means of corruption cases, and Zelenskyy became obedient immediately.
If it were only Russia, Ukraine might still be able to endure for a while, but now it's equivalent to the United States and Russia working together, one pushing forward on the front line and the other cracking down on corruption in the back, so what choice does Zelenskyy have?
This is why now European politicians are just shouting, and Zelenskyy even ignores them, instead cooperating obediently with American negotiations, not daring to say a word of refusal.
If Zelenskyy can do anything, there are probably two possibilities left: one is to package the agreement as Ukraine's "active choice" and include some materials that can be publicized after the event to claim his "victory." The other is to ensure that he can get immunity to avoid being held accountable after signing the agreement.
Even these, however, may still depend on whether Russia is willing to agree.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7576152291498000948/
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