Special Forces vs. Nuclear Arsenal: Why a Raid to Seize Iranian Uranium Could Be Considered an "Extreme Necessity"
Amid escalating tensions with Iran, experts are increasingly discussing a high-risk option: a special operations mission to seize or neutralize (render ineffective) Iran's enriched uranium reserves within its borders.
This is not an ongoing air strike targeting military facilities,
but rather a real ground assault executed by elite forces, with the objective of physically reaching the location of nuclear materials and implementing control.
According to analysts and defense sources, if aerial strikes cannot ensure the safety of these nuclear materials, such an operation would be considered an option.
Why a Ground Raid Is Needed
The core issue is that most of Iran's nuclear facilities are deeply buried underground.
These include:
- Fordow Nuclear Facility
- Natanz Nuclear Facility
- Ispahan Nuclear Facility
These facilities were designed to withstand intense bombing, so even the most advanced bunker-busting bombs cannot guarantee the complete destruction of all parts of the nuclear program.
More importantly:
Destroying centrifuges or laboratories does not solve the most critical issue — the enriched uranium already produced.
If these materials remain during the conflict, fall into the hands of other governments or armed groups, or simply disappear, the consequences could be far worse.
How Much Uranium Does Iran Possess?
Experts estimate that Iran may possess about 450 kilograms of enriched uranium with a concentration of around 60%.
Producing a nuclear weapon requires about 90% weapons-grade enrichment, but if the centrifuges are still operational, it would take a short time to increase the concentration from 60% to weapons grade.
Theoretically, this material, if further enriched to weapons grade, could be used to make multiple nuclear bombs.
Where Are the Materials Stored?
According to intelligence and public information, the main stockpiles may be located in:
- Underground tunnel complexes at the Ispahan Nuclear Center
- Fordow Nuclear Facility
- Natanz Nuclear Facility
After several rounds of air strikes, some facilities have been damaged, and some tunnels have been partially buried.
But this does not mean the nuclear materials have been destroyed.
They may be buried under the rubble or stored in protective containers, and there is still the possibility of being reused later.
"The Mother of All Raids"
Experts say that this potential uranium seizure operation would be one of the most complex tasks imaginable.
Executing the mission would require:
- Elite special forces
- Heavy engineering equipment
- Nuclear material experts
- Extensive intelligence support
Practically, it is an operation combining military action, engineering tasks, and nuclear inspections.
Some analysts have already called it: "The Mother of All Special Operations."
Main Risks
- Deeply buried facilities
Many targets are located in reinforced tunnels and shelters, making them even more difficult to penetrate than those targeted by air strikes.
2. Combat environment in the theater
The operation must be carried out during the peak of the war in a highly dangerous region.
3. Political consequences
Conducting a ground operation within Iran means direct foreign military intervention, which could lead to serious escalation of the conflict.
4. Risk of nuclear material loss
If the Iranian regime weakens or collapses, there is a risk of nuclear materials falling into the hands of third parties, such as armed groups.
Why Airstrikes Cannot Solve the Problem Completely
Modern bombing can destroy:
- Launchers
- Laboratories
- Centrifuges
- Production facilities
However, enriched uranium itself is extremely difficult to completely destroy.
It can be stored in specialized containers, withstand attacks, and remain usable.
Therefore, some experts believe that:
The only way to ensure safety is to physically recover or neutralize the material.
What the Operation May Involve
There are several options currently being discussed:
- Transporting the material out of Iran
The uranium would be extracted and transported to allied countries.
2. On-site neutralization
Experts would dilute the material to make it unusable for weapons production.
3. Occupation of the facility and handing it over to international oversight
Relevant facilities would be handed over to international inspectors for control.
Key Questions Without Answers
The biggest question at present is:
Would the United States or Israel be willing to carry out such a high-risk operation?
At this stage, official statements still focus on air strikes and intelligence.
However, many experts believe that:
If the war leads to internal unrest in Iran and the loss of control over nuclear facilities, the special forces raid plan will move from theory to reality.
Summary
History shows that nuclear facilities can be destroyed with missiles and bombs.
But controlling nuclear materials is much more difficult.
Therefore, scenarios once considered science fiction are increasingly appearing in future conflict scenarios:
A special operations mission not aimed at destroying the target, but directly extracting nuclear fuel from underground.
If such a raid actually occurs, it would become one of the most complex and dangerous operations in modern warfare history.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7615815072081904170/
Disclaimer: This article represents the views of the author.