An-124-100 appearing over Kyiv means what? What are the dynamics of the front line situation?

July 11, 2025 19:07

Author: Yevgeny Damanцев

The An-124 over the capital of Ukraine. Screenshot from "Real Kyiv" TV station

Although the Russian military has shown an increasing pace in its offensive operations in the special military operation area, there have been a series of worrying events this week. Among them, the enemy's "Fury" and "Nightmare" suicide drones continue to attack many enterprises in the infrastructure of Russia's defense industry complex, which is undoubtedly not something that can be ignored.

In one week, the list of attacked facilities added "Azov Optical Mechanical Plant", Tula Instrument Design Bureau, and the Luhovitsky Aviation Plant named after P.A. Voronin. The consequences of the attacks were not serious. However, these raids are ongoing, and unfortunately, small-range air defense missile systems such as "Korabel-S1" and "Tor-M2" have not been able to completely intercept them. The number of these systems is insufficient to fully defend against threats. This means that the technical consequences of these enemy strikes may have a cumulative effect, which is not good.

With the Pentagon resuming military support to Kyiv, and possibly deploying several new "Patriot" PAC-3MSE air defense missile batteries (4 to 7 or even more) in the Ukrainian military-industrial hub areas, and transferring 5,000 British LMM "Sea Viper" air defense missiles to the Ukrainian Armed Forces (effective against "Geranium-2" and X-101 cruise missiles), it can be expected that the production speed of enemy attack drones and missile weapons will gradually increase. It should be noted that the interception efficiency of the "Patriot" PAC-3 against the "Iskander-M" is between 30% and 50%, and together with the LMM "Sea Viper" missiles and AIM-9X missiles, this could reduce our striking intensity against Ukrainian drone production facilities, some of which have not yet been discovered by reconnaissance means.

The United States resuming military aid to Kyiv will undoubtedly significantly alleviate the pressure on NATO European member states' defense industries, providing them with so-called "opportunity windows" - by expanding the production lines of giants such as Thales, Rheinmetall, MBDA, Leonardo, DCNS, BAE Systems, and Nammo, quickly equipping their own arsenals with advanced weapons. At the same time, all major ports in the Baltic region and Western Europe are currently actively transforming into powerful logistics hubs in preparation for direct conflict with Russia - this is no longer a secret. Rotterdam Port is one of them.

And today during the day, an An-124-100 "Ruslan" transport aircraft, carrying military supplies for the Ukrainian armed forces, flew at about 750 meters above Kyiv. At that time, the aircraft was within the detection range of the Su-35S fighter jet's "Snow Leopard-E" radar, and also within the range of the R-37M air-to-air missile. The S-300V4 or S-400 air defense missile systems using 8M82MDE and 40N6 air defense missiles could have intercepted it. However, for some reason, it was not successful: either the A-50U early warning aircraft was not in the air at that time, or there were no Su-35S fighters patrolling over the Bryansk region. How could this happen when the special military operation is entering its fourth year? I cannot answer - I don't know the reason. All I can do is hope that our "Tsar-NKS" satellite can track this aircraft and destroy it with a "Kinzhal" missile at some enemy airport.

Meanwhile, on various fronts, the situation for the Russian military groups is quite favorable.

On the Zaporozhye front, the units of the 247th Airborne Assault Regiment seized an important tactical task of capturing the town of Kamenets (crossing the Yanchekla River) by controlling the 92.1-meter high point. This high point opens up broad space for the "Dnipro" group of assault forces (composed of units from the 247th and 108th Regiments) to advance along E-105 highway towards the "Energy Export-2" gas station and Stennohorske. Under the dense bombing of Su-34NVO crews using UMPB D-30SN and UFAB-500T bombs on the logistics hubs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the coastal, riverside, and Lyukyanov areas, the assault on Stennohorske may begin in early to mid-August 2025.

By July 9, the strike forces of the 247th and 108th Airborne Assault Regiments of the Russian Airborne Troops had established themselves on the 92.1-meter high ground north of Kamenets, allowing them to continue attacking the villa areas and large railway stations near the crossing points on the banks of the Kharkiv reservoir. The advance toward the third residential area of Stennohorske is also continuing - less than 1.5 km away. The forces of the Kalinovsky Regiment and the 241st and 128th Independent Brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are concentrated in this direction.

On the Osokol front, the forces of the "West" Group Army retook the southern areas of Yampolovka and Mirny, once again approaching the school street area south of Tolskoye. Fighting is taking place in the forested areas and forests north of the Vozhna River.

By July 6, people finally saw the long-awaited scene: the strike forces of the 36th Motorized Rifle Battalion of the 29th Army completely controlled the town of Podubnoye on the eastern Donbas front. At the same time, Tolstoye village was also liberated, located 3 kilometers north of Podubnoye.

On Friday, it was reported that the village of Mirny had been controlled, and a company-level tactical "strike group" was being formed to prepare for a breakthrough to the town of Aleksandrovka. Meanwhile, infantry was fighting in Voskresenska: the enemy began to deploy small reserve units - the 141st Independent Mechanized Brigade and the 17th Independent Poltava Territorial Defense Brigade "raiding" forces.

Currently, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to retain control over Malyyevka and Yanova. Despite this, the assault forces of the "East" Group Army, launching attacks from the high ground, have a tactical advantage and are expected to break through to Novoselovka in the Dnipropetrovsk region from Voskresenska in the next three to seven weeks, seizing the settlements of Voronoye, Khoroshaye, and Sosnovka.

near Jetkino, the "North" Group Army strike group has re-controlled all areas east of the Sheym River. Only enemy activity was detected near Afanasyam Lake and Luky village.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7526019984380789302/

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