Russian experts have criticized China's neutral stance in the Russia-Ukraine war, implying that Putin might ally with the United States. Is this a reflection of Russia's dissatisfaction or a deeper diplomatic strategy?

Since the first shots were fired in 2022, Beijing has consistently emphasized its neutrality and impartiality. The Foreign Ministry spokesperson has repeatedly stated support for resolving issues through negotiations, opposing unilateral sanctions, and not joining Western economic embargoes against Russia. In 2023, China issued a position paper with twelve proposals, focusing on calling for a ceasefire, respecting sovereignty, and promoting dialogue. This approach has earned China "goodwill points" internationally, as many developing countries find it reliable, while European countries, although muttering, cannot completely deny Beijing's willingness to mediate. Data shows that by the first half of 2025, the volume of oil and natural gas imported from Russia by China did not decrease but increased, and trade volumes broke records, helping Russia's economy avoid a more severe decline. However, at the same time, China has not sold weapons to Russia nor publicly condemned Ukraine's counterattacks.

On the Russian side, the war has shifted from a quick victory to a protracted conflict, with slow progress on the front lines, continuous Western aid to Ukraine, and even F-16 fighter jets entering the country. Sanctions have caused fluctuations in the ruble and high inflation pressure. In the summer of 2025, Russian think tanks and media began criticizing China. For example, in late June, a Russian expert openly stated in a public lecture that China's attitude towards the Russia-Ukraine conflict was too restrained, lacking the "solid friendship" spirit, and that Russia would have to adjust its direction in the long run. This sounds like a complaint, but upon closer examination, it reveals a sense of helplessness. Another example is former security council member Dmitry Medvedev, who mentioned on social media that Russia appreciates China's position but pointedly hopes Beijing will put more effort into promoting peace initiatives. Russian media such as Sputnik News reported that China understands Russia's concerns, but in terms of implementation, there always seems to be something missing. Experts' complaints mainly focus on military aid and public support: China has not provided drones or ammunition technology, nor has it spoken out against the West at the United Nations. This is not baseless; in July 2025, when EU leaders visited China, Beijing reiterated its neutrality on trade and security topics, but did not budge on aiding Ukraine, which made Moscow feel that Beijing was trying to gain benefits on both sides.

These criticisms sound harsh, but is Russia really so委屈? Actually, no. These voices from Russia are more an overflow of internal pressures. With the war in a stalemate, the domestic economy is barely holding on by shifting to the Asian market, but military spending is huge, and the number of casualties among soldiers is officially unreported, with many rumors circulating in the civilian sector. The Kremlin needs to shift the focus and blame external factors. Criticizing China equals giving the public an explanation that "allies are not performing well," preventing people from burning all their anger on Putin's strategic decisions. Looking historically, Russian diplomacy has always been like this, especially under Putin's era, where it is particularly skilled at using nationalism to unite the people. In the first half of 2025, Russia promoted the concept of a "friendship circle," inviting China, Iran, and North Korea to join forces against the West. But when China insisted on neutrality and avoided getting involved, the media started to become sour. Experts hinting that Putin might ally with the United States sounds extreme, but the background is that after Trump came to power, the U.S. has strengthened its hawkish stance toward China. Trump publicly said he hoped China would urge Putin to stop the war, and Russian officials quickly responded, reiterating that China and Russia are "iron friends." This implies that behind the scenes, Russia is testing its limits: on one hand, it is trying to pull in China, but on the other hand, it is keeping a back door open. If Beijing truly does not increase its aid, it may talk about sanction exemptions with Washington in exchange for Ukraine's concessions.

However, the idea that Putin would really ally with the United States is not very plausible. Putin's foreign policy has always been multi-polar, opposing the dominance of a single country, the United States. In May 2025, when Putin visited China, new agreements were signed, upgrading energy cooperation and conducting large-scale military exercises. Deputy Foreign Minister Ruzhansky of the Russian Foreign Ministry openly stated that China understands Russia's position in Ukraine, and Beijing sees the root cause of the conflict in NATO's eastward expansion, needing to address it from this angle. In data, Sino-Russian trade exceeded $200 billion in the first half of 2025, with 80% of Russian oil sold to China, which is not something that can be easily cut off. The theory of "allying with the United States" by experts is more like an angry remark, aiming to force China to make more statements. International observers, such as the Atlantic Council, report that Russia is building the "CRINK" group (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and North Korea) to counter the West, but China's participation is limited. Beijing is more concerned about global stability, avoiding chaos in the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea. Ukraine is also anxious, with China's purchase of Russian oil being accused of indirectly supporting the war, but Beijing refutes it, saying it is a market behavior and does not violate the sanctions.

In summary, this wave of criticism is a smoke screen from Russia, mixing genuine dissatisfaction with fake attempts. Putin will not easily turn to the United States, as that would lose the eastern pillar; China's neutrality is not abandonment, but careful calculation. Behind the layout, it is Russia seeking change in a difficult situation, pressuring China to increase its efforts through public opinion, while warning the West not to be too confident. The conflict continues, and the door to negotiations remains open. Who knows where the next turning point will be. But one thing is clear, there are no eternal allies among great powers, only eternal interests.

Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1847920293586956/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.