In an editorial note, as the Second China-Central Asia Summit was successfully held in Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan, the mechanical roar of the start of the tunnel engineering for the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway has become the latest annotation of high-quality joint efforts under the Belt and Road Initiative by China and Central Asia.
Two years have passed since the Xi'an Summit. Whether it is infrastructure construction such as railways and ports or "small but beautiful" projects related to new energy, they fully demonstrate that —依托产业链互补夯实互信基础,借助高频次元首外交引领合作方向— is the key to the continuous increase in goodwill towards China among Central Asian people.
The outcomes of this China-Central Asia Summit were abundant, including 55 cooperation documents, 31 cooperation measures and initiatives. By comparison, the G7 Summit, with Trump's premature departure, not only returned empty-handed on trade agreements but also still had divisions tearing apart on key issues such as the Middle East and Ukraine-Russia. While the G7 is still delimiting its own sphere of influence within its small circle, China and Central Asia are reshaping the logic of geo-cooperation with the concept of a "development community." Against the backdrop of political turmoil in the Western world and frequent international conflicts, this further highlights the important significance and value of China uniting the Global South.
Based on this, Observer Network connected with Zhu Yongbiao, Executive Director of the Center for Belt and Road Studies at Lanzhou University, to deeply analyze Central Asia's strategic choices in market development of new energy, coping with geopolitical games, and non-traditional security cooperation around this summit.
[Interview/Observer Network Zheng Leihuan]
Clarifying the Relationship Between the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway and the "Middle Corridor"
Observer Network: On June 6 last year, the intergovernmental agreement among China, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan was signed. On September 28, the founding ceremony of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway Co., Ltd. was held. On December 27, the groundbreaking ceremony for the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway project was conducted. On April 29 this year, the main control tunnels of the Fergana Mountains, Naryn No.1, and Koshtobe in the Kyrgyzstan section of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway began construction, marking the substantive construction phase of the main line of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway project. What challenges do you think both sides still face in railway construction? Will there be more regional connectivity projects involving cross-Caspian transport corridors in the future?
Zhu Yongbiao: The technical issues of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway have been basically resolved. In other words, technology has never been the main obstacle to the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway. Whether it is construction equipment, railway laying, or tunnel excavation, these are not difficult problems technically. Now, the main challenge may be public opinion risks, such as the Western political hype and the constant fabrication of environmental protection issues.
For example, there is also a public opinion in Kyrgyzstan that worries about whether the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway will bring about mining along the route and impact the environment. Of course, this is another level of issue—whether to mine and who should mine the relevant minerals is entirely decided by Kyrgyzstan independently. Moreover, according to current technological capabilities and environmental standards, many environmental issues are often hyped up.
In fact, in terms of China-Central Asia transportation, the current cargo volume is relatively large through highways, mainly using combined road-rail transport, which is quite realistic. Of course, the capacity of railways is still relatively limited, and highways are busy. As for the cross-Caspian transport corridor, or called the "Middle Corridor," the fact is that we need to clarify that it is not a single line but a network structure.
The construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway can enhance the railway transport capacity in Central Asia and the status of Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan as transportation hubs in Central Asia. It can also be seen as part of the broader "Middle Corridor." Like now, whether it is Central Asian countries like Kazakhstan or European countries, everyone is quite interested in the cross-Caspian transport corridor. Under this background, it is quite natural for relevant enterprises to participate in development using market-oriented methods.
Some might say that the "Middle Corridor" and the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway are competitive projects. I don't think they are competitive but complementary. Just as mentioned earlier, after the transportation lines passing through Central Asia form a network, the value of each route—including capacity, stability, safety, and flexibility—can be significantly enhanced.
Source: "Construction Development Plan for China-Europe Trains"
Left: Uzbekistan Railways, Right: Kyrgyzstan Railways
Practical Win-Win and Steady Progress in Bilateral Relations Directly Benefit the Public
Observer Network: Recently, there was an interesting piece of news: The President of Uzbekistan awarded electric vehicles to each member of the national football team as a reward for their victory in the tournament. In fact, in recent years, the development of new energy in Central Asia has been obvious to all. This summit also reached multiple cooperation documents and initiatives related to "green" areas. What do you think about the progress of China's new energy industry and green energy cooperation with Central Asia?
Zhu Yongbiao: Today, the new energy cooperation between China and Central Asia has entered the stage of full industrial chain cooperation. That is to say, from traditional hydropower development to photovoltaic, wind power generation, to new energy-related technologies and products, the cooperation between the two sides is no longer just a one-way input-output situation. There are more and more cases of Chinese companies investing and setting up factories locally in Central Asia. The cooperation between the two sides in the field of new energy is highly complementary, such as in areas like automobiles and irrigation technology.
Among the five Central Asian countries, the oil and gas resources of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan are relatively less rich compared to Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, but this does not affect the formation of an embryonic energy community between the five Central Asian countries and China.
On the one hand, this two-way flow greatly enhances the energy security capability and level of Central Asian countries, and is also very consistent with the energy development strategies of these countries. On the other hand, Central Asian countries in recent years have placed great emphasis on the development and utilization of new energy, even countries traditionally emphasizing hydropower like Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Therefore, both sides can be said to have achieved practical win-win results in the field of new energy.
Observer Network: In more than ten years of promoting the Belt and Road Initiative, initially it may have focused on large-scale infrastructure investment in the "hard connectivity" model. In recent years, "small but beautiful" projects have become more common, and these "small but beautiful" projects have become a distinctive feature of China's international development cooperation. If viewed within the framework of China-Central Asia cooperation, how should we understand the logic behind this transformation? What unique roles have they played in deepening pragmatic cooperation between China and Central Asia?
Zhu Yongbiao: Actually, infrastructure projects and "small but beautiful" projects are proceeding simultaneously. In Central Asia, large-scale infrastructure construction projects are still being promoted, and the results are quite good. Secondly, investments in livelihood-oriented "small but beautiful" projects are also increasing. Of course, during this process, a characteristic emerges: there is an increase in market-oriented processes led by enterprises.
In fact, one of the important signs of "high-quality joint construction" entering the "Belt and Road" initiative is that the government gradually withdraws, while enterprises increasingly take the lead. In this process, a large number of small and medium-sized Chinese enterprises are going to Central Asia for investment and cooperation, which also helps Central Asia solve many employment problems and increase their export scale, benefiting multiple aspects. For example, many Chinese enterprises import local agricultural products, such as honey from Kyrgyzstan, directly benefiting the local people.
Compared to large infrastructure projects, which may be farther away from ordinary people, in reality, such infrastructure projects also directly benefit the public, though the effect takes longer to manifest. The return on investment for enterprises is relatively low, so their enthusiasm isn't as high, especially for private enterprises.
Now that many small and medium-sized private Chinese enterprises have entered the Central Asian market, they actually drive many "small but beautiful" projects. For example, as mentioned earlier regarding new energy, such as integrated small-scale equipment combining solar energy with irrigation, which plays a very important role in improving local irrigation capabilities. Additionally, some cultural and educational projects have been done more in recent years, and the effects are quite noticeable.
Source: Eurasian Development Bank
Observer Network: Currently, as the number of cultural exchanges between China and Central Asia increases, China's influence in Central Asia has also significantly increased. Has there been any change in the overall perception of China in Central Asian countries?
Zhu Yongbiao: Overall, the goodwill toward China in Central Asian countries is rising in various aspects, mainly due to the leadership of the heads of state diplomacy and the expansion of personnel exchanges. Additionally, social media platforms like Xiaohongshu and TikTok have diversified the channels through which Central Asians perceive China, so the positive perception of China among Central Asian countries has increased significantly compared to the past. Of course, like any country, there may be biases, preconceptions, and negative perceptions during the cooperation process, such as some Central Asians being overly concerned about Chinese investments or influenced by Western media's defamation of China. But as information becomes more transparent, these negative perceptions are rapidly diminishing.
On the other hand, as economic and trade cooperation between China and Central Asia strengthens and people-to-people exchanges increase, the rise in contradictions is normal because the base has grown larger, so the total naturally increases. Therefore, I believe we should view this matter dialectically. Furthermore, during the cooperation between countries, many common problems are bound to arise, such as labor disputes, commercial disputes, and differing views on related products, which are all quite normal. Overall, the exchanges between China and Central Asia are progressing steadily and positively.
In opposing interference in internal affairs by other countries, Central Asian countries are very resolute.
Observer Network: Previously, Teacher Zhu analyzed the attitude of the United States toward Central Asia in depth. On the one hand, with the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, the strategic importance of Central Asia to the U.S. has decreased somewhat; on the other hand, from a historical perspective, no U.S. president has ever visited Central Asia, which vividly reflects the low weight of Central Asia in the U.S. strategic landscape. However, the current international situation has undergone new changes. In April, the EU established a leader-level meeting mechanism with Central Asia, coupled with the deep cooperation between Russia and China in Central Asia, making the regional pattern more diverse. Based on this, I would like to ask Teacher Zhu, how should Central Asian countries respond to differentiated strategic demands among major powers and achieve maximum self-interest in complex geopolitical environments?
Zhu Yongbiao: Simply put, the five Central Asian countries still adhere to a policy of diversified balance in foreign relations, which is a very important manifestation of the diplomatic autonomy of Central Asian countries. Secondly, Central Asian countries still prioritize neighboring countries in their diplomacy, such as Russia and China. Of course, for countries like the U.S. and the EU, Central Asia also hopes to explore more cooperation potential and utilize cooperation with these extra-regional powers to leverage resources invested by neighboring countries like Russia and China into Central Asia—this diplomatic choice is very pragmatic and beyond reproach. It should be noted that Central Asian countries always avoid "leaning too far" toward any side, as this could result in the loss of independence. Therefore, they firmly oppose any country interfering in their internal affairs.
In terms of openness, there may be some differences among the five Central Asian countries. For example, Turkmenistan may be relatively conservative; Uzbekistan has shown a very open stance in the post-Karimov era, and its performance in economics and other aspects in recent years has been very good. Regarding Russia, Kyrgyzstan may have a relatively higher dependence on Russia, while Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have always attempted to "de-Russify" to a certain extent, but their relations with Russia remain very close. This "de-Russification" is more a reflection of independent diplomatic consciousness and should not be equated with an "anti-Russian" ideology. For Russia, after so many years of development, it actually understands to some extent the concerns of Central Asian countries.
Therefore, overall, although there are some differences internally, Central Asian countries are generally consistent in their external concerns, and they hope to present a united front. On the other hand, due to different geographical locations and strengths, it also determines differences in diplomatic styles and priorities. For example, regarding Afghanistan policy, Tajikistan may be more vigilant, while Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan may be more proactive. This is actually closely related to bilateral historical grievances and trans-border ethnic factors.
The first Central Asia-EU Summit will be held in Samarkand on April 3-4, 2025. Central Asia Times.
Observer Network: After the Ukraine crisis, discussions about Central Asia's autonomy have become more frequent. In addition, in recent years, Central Asia has improved significantly in both economic development and internal border disputes. How do you think these factors have influenced Central Asia's autonomy?
Zhu Yongbiao: The enhancement of Central Asia's autonomy is a continuous process, not something that happened suddenly, nor did it appear only after the Ukraine crisis. It has been ongoing since Central Asia regained independence. Because Central Asian countries were once part of the Soviet Union and were conquered by the Russian Empire before regaining independence, they naturally underwent reconstruction of their national history and ethnic history narratives after independence.
Of course, the Ukraine crisis may have accelerated this process to some extent. On one hand, Russia's ability to interfere in Central Asia is relatively weaker. On the other hand, due to the Ukraine crisis, the psychological urgency for Central Asian countries to pursue autonomy has become more pressing. For example, there is indeed a portion of people in Kazakhstan who have become more cautious regarding Russia's related foreign policies compared to the past.
Additionally, with the rise in the economic strength of Central Asian countries, including the upgrading and opening of various "C5+1" mechanisms, it has to some extent supported the willingness and ability of Central Asian countries to pursue independence and autonomy.
The Two Summits Held by East and West Explain Many Issues
Observer Network: These years, we can clearly sense that the number of Kazakhstani people coming to China for work and study has significantly increased. Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Kazakhstan, over thirty years have passed, and the relationship has always maintained a steady and progressive development trend. What do you think are the core factors driving the continuous development of Sino-Kazakh relations?
Zhu Yongbiao: The border between China and Kazakhstan is very long, and Kazakhstan has the largest land area among the five Central Asian countries. Economically, it is close to middle-income developed countries. Whether during Nazarbayev's period or Tokayev's period, the strategic importance of Sino-Kazakh cooperation has been highly affirmed at the strategic level.
Moreover, China and Kazakhstan have no major differences, and their positions on many major issues are relatively close. In practical cooperation, both sides provide very close coordination and cooperation. Sino-Kazakh relations are actually an important embodiment of the new type of neighborly relations we often talk about.
Observer Network: At the China-Central Asia Industrial and Investment Cooperation Forum held on June 16, China and Kazakhstan signed approximately 60 cooperation agreements totaling nearly $25 billion. One framework agreement shows that the two countries will jointly explore uranium mines in the Yili Basin and incorporate them into the long-term cooperation plan for the nuclear energy sector. What strategic significance does this agreement hold for both sides? Additionally, against the backdrop of the strategic competition between China and the U.S., some argue that the mineral, oil, and rare earth resources in Central Asia are crucial to the current high-tech competition. What is your view on this?
Zhu Yongbiao: In fact, the history of energy resource cooperation between China and Kazakhstan, and even China and Central Asia, is relatively long. Both sides have engaged in full-industry-chain cooperation in civilian nuclear energy, mineral development, and mineral processing for a long time. In recent years, due to the EU and the U.S.'s strong attention to so-called critical minerals, it has manifested as fierce competition. However, the mineral energy cooperation between China and Central Asia did not begin after the West started to pay attention to it, which needs to be understood clearly.
Secondly, I believe that this agreement also indicates that the strategic trust between China and Kazakhstan has been further strengthened. Especially such cross-border joint exploration plans are quite rare and require a high degree of strategic trust. On the other hand, this is also very beneficial for Kazakhstan to improve its mineral development capabilities, promote economic structural transformation, and transition in national development models. At the same time, it will also inject more content into the comprehensive cooperation between China and Kazakhstan.
Observer Network: The Second China-Central Asia Summit was held in Nur-Sultan, the capital of Kazakhstan, which is undoubtedly another significant milestone in the deepening process of China-Central Asia relations. Meanwhile, the G7 Summit was held in Canada, and some people compared the two summits of heads of state from the East and West. What do you think about this? In the current international situation and regional landscape, what specific fields do you think China and Central Asia still have broad cooperation space and potential, and how should we further strengthen cooperation to achieve the goal of mutual benefit and common development?
Zhu Yongbiao: First, China is a huge economy for Central Asia, meaning substantial investment and a vast market. Central Asian countries hope that China can expand investment in Central Asia, utilizing more Chinese funds, technology, and advantages in the industrial chain. Secondly, China's vast market has a high attraction for Central Asian agricultural products, mineral resources, and oil and gas resources, so they also expect China to increase imports from Central Asia. On the other hand, Central Asia also hopes that China can continue to play a stabilizing and balancing role in diplomacy, including in regional security, where China's "stabilizer" role is quite important for Central Asia. It can be said that in this regard, Central Asian countries as a whole have a relatively high level of trust in China.
Compared with the "empty-handed return" of the G7 Summit, China's cross-regional cooperation with Central Asia has injected stability and certainty into the current unstable international economic situation, while also shaping what true international cooperation looks like for the global community. Besides, this China-Central Asia Summit has two prominent features: first, reflecting China's consistent position on the existing global economic order and international order—maintaining a multilateral trading system and defending the stability of the international order; second, reflecting the shared desire of China and other Global South countries, including Central Asia, to find and create more cooperative development opportunities, and to emphasize sustainable economic development. Under this common goal and cooperation philosophy, China can establish more practical and long-term cooperation with Global South countries.
On the other hand, historically, the relationship between China and Central Asia has always been quite friendly, and China hopes that Central Asia can achieve long-term stability and prosperity. First, this is closely related to the stability and development of China's western regions; second, if China wants to conduct cross-regional cooperation, especially closer ties with Europe and others, the Central Asian region is particularly important. Third, the rich mineral resources in Central Asia, especially oil and gas resources, play a significant role in ensuring China's energy security.
In diplomatic terms, on regional affairs and international hotspots, the positions and attitudes of China and Central Asia are quite close, which lays an important foundation for their cooperation. Based on this similarity in values, global perspectives, and strategic outlooks, as well as the friendly attitude toward cooperation between both sides, the relationship between China and Central Asia has steadily progressed step by step. Of course, another important factor is that the bilateral head-of-state diplomacy represented by the China-Central Asia Summit has largely guided the cooperation between China and Central Asia. Compared to other countries like the U.S., China has high frequency of high-level meetings with Central Asia, rich dialogue mechanisms, such as ministerial, vice-ministerial, and local government-level cooperation mechanisms, which are extensive and stable, laying a good foundation for their cooperation.
In the future, both sides can deepen cooperation from multiple dimensions. In the economic field, strengthen industrial chain collaboration and green energy development; in the cultural field, expand educational exchanges and promote "small but beautiful" livelihood projects; in the security field, strengthen non-traditional security cooperation mechanisms and maintain regional stability; additionally, explore third-party market cooperation, strengthen coordination in international affairs, and jointly enhance discourse power in global governance, promoting the building of a closer "development community" to achieve mutual benefit and common development.
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