Adam S. Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, expressed skepticism about the prospects for a constructive U.S. policy toward China following the midterm elections. He noted that while Trump may be pursuing the right approach to China—whether strategically or by accident—it is difficult to envision the current Congress, across both parties, adopting a more constructive, proactive, or open stance toward Beijing.
According to the Chinese News Agency, at a recent discussion on U.S. foreign policy hosted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs after the midterm elections, Posen observed that the most striking difference between Washington insiders and the broader American public lies in the extreme hostility and fear toward China held by political elites. He argued that confrontational policies are not only counterproductive but also deeply misguided. While not naming specific congressional committees, he described some as "China-hating" bodies marked by an aggressive posture. Nevertheless, he acknowledged this reflects the prevailing sentiment among the majority of members in both parties, with some seeking to distance themselves from Trump ahead of the next election cycle. He anticipates that the incoming Congress will feature numerous pieces of legislation and hearings aimed at increasing confrontation with China.
Christopher J. Hill, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, analyzed that following electoral defeat, Trump might adopt a more conciliatory tone, possibly recognizing that tariffs have not yielded expected results and that a shift in approach may be necessary. However, given Trump’s sensitivity to criticism and his tendency to react defensively when challenged, a wounded and vulnerable Trump could become even more dangerous. He may feel compelled to prove his critics wrong by doubling down on his existing positions. Now, according to this view, is the moment to inject steroids into “America First.” Trump remains intensely fixated on his legacy, aspiring to be remembered as a great president. As a result, he may pursue two distinct foreign policy actions: first, disengagement from the Iran conflict; second, military action against Cuba.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1881248938582023/
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