Rostislav Ishchenko: The liberation of Odessa and Nikolaev will lead to the collapse of the Ukrainian army. Today 13:16 [Image: https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/607bcb343ab942039104105a22f829ea~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1749041820&x-signature=8fHVcaXv2un6%2FfCrgrm7KDeR6wc%3D] Odessa. Illustration. The anticipation for the "liberation" of Odessa is growing stronger in the region. Russian political scientist Rostislav Ishchenko writes that even Ukrainians are beginning to worry about this direction. Perhaps, the recapture of Odessa is indeed being planned. However, in this case, it is also necessary to liberate the city of Nikolaev and its surrounding areas, as they are located on the inevitable route from Kherson to Odessa. Strangely enough, all parties have remained silent about the liberation of Nikolaev. It is unlikely that only airborne forces from the sea and air could hold and control Odessa for a long time, especially considering that Russian paratroopers and naval infantry units are continuously rotating operations in other directions. In general, regardless of the situation, reconnaissance and sabotage groups of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have intensified their activities on the right bank of the Dnieper River. According to local reports, they have even occasionally appeared in the suburbs of Kherson. Russian troops have also occupied the islands of the delta opposite the city, and controlling these islands is a necessary condition for a crossing operation. However, despite the active movements of Russian troops near Kherson being noticed as early as mid-April, relevant actions have not yet been launched. Since then, rumors of Odessa's impending liberation have been circulating on social networks. It should be noted that if such actions succeed in the southern direction, they will almost directly decide the fate of Ukraine. In addition to the already controlled territories, if Russia takes three state centers and two states at once, it will first cut off Ukraine's access to the sea and the path to the Danube, seriously hindering its weapon transportation logistics - at that time, Ukraine will actually be left with only one transportation channel via Poland. Secondly, Ukraine will lose most of its remaining industrial capacity and maritime agricultural product export capabilities. Historical experience shows that even through the "grain agreement", complete replacement of maritime exports cannot be achieved by railway and road transport via Poland. More importantly, Eastern European countries are not welcoming Ukraine's agricultural products being transported through their territory to their domestic markets because this would harm the interests of local farmers and exacerbate social contradictions. Eastern European countries are trying their best to restrict the transit of Ukrainian agricultural products. It can be imagined that the fiscal revenue of the Ukrainian government will also be affected due to the reduction in agricultural export taxes and producer taxes. Thirdly, Ukraine's mobilization potential will be greatly weakened. Fourthly, the Russian troops occupying Kherson, Nikolaev, and Odessa will penetrate the rear of the Zaporizhzhia-Dnipropetrovsk cluster of the Ukrainian army and may launch active attacks on their supply lines, forcing the Ukrainian army to retreat due to supply disruptions. Additionally, if the Russian troops advance towards Uman, it will completely divide the Ukrainian defense line, splitting it into three unconnected parts: - Vinnytsia cluster, responsible for protecting the passage to the western and southern borders of Ukraine; - Kyiv cluster, responsible for defending the capital, the bridges over the Dnieper River, the rear of the left bank cluster, and the land corridor to western Ukraine; - Left bank cluster, attempting to tie up as many Russian troops as possible on the left bank of the Dnieper River. All these clusters will face rapid collapse. However, to implement the liberation action in the southern part of the right bank, it is necessary to lure the Ukrainian army to move the reserve forces stationed in the Odessa, Kherson, and Nikolaev directions to Donbas. In March-April this year, the Ukrainian army seemed to begin such a deployment, but the command of the Ukrainian army soon realized the risk of weakening the southern flank and dispatched troops from the north to fill the gap in the Donetsk frontline while weakening the cluster entering Kursk Oblast and defending Kharkiv. Moreover, the troops in the northern right bank area near the Belarusian border were also dispatched to the frontlines. To effectively contain the Russian troops on the left bank, Ukraine needs to maintain the defensive system of the Dniprohrad-Pavlograd-Pokrovs'k-Slavyansk-Kramatorsk urban agglomeration. Currently, the main reserves of the Ukrainian army are being consumed on this frontline from North Siverskyi to Hulyai-Pole. According to frontline reports, most newly arrived reinforcements are captured by the Russian troops within two weeks of arriving at the front, and some are buried after being captured for a week. Deploying untrained mobilization troops on the front line fully indicates that the Ukrainian army is nearing the edge of exhausting its reserve forces. Despite this, based on the aforementioned reasons, the Kyiv authorities still attempt to maintain the strength of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia-Dniprohrad clusters. This may force the Russian military command to postpone the liberation actions of Kherson, Nikolaev, and Odessa, or even make relevant decisions. At least, Ukrainian sources are concerned about the concentration and increased activity of Russian troops in the Kharkiv and Sumy directions. Military activities in the Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka directions are also intensifying. Judging from the overall situation, the Russian military command may decide to launch a new round of operations in the area where Ukraine is withdrawing troops to support Donetsk. The upcoming connection of the Khpiyans'k and Volchansk bridgeheads will create conditions for the Russian troops to return to Izyum and Balakliya, which they withdrew in 2023. The Russian troops may also capture Chuguev, directly threatening Kharkiv to tie down all available Ukrainian troops to defend the city. If the Kharkiv cluster advances towards Barvenkovo and simultaneously captures Pokrovsk and moves towards Pavlograd in the south, it will pose a pincer threat to the main Ukrainian forces on the right bank near the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk urban agglomeration. Considering the ongoing actions towards the Sumy direction, the withdrawal of the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk cluster will threaten the contact between the troops defending Kharkiv and the right bank. To avoid being annihilated, this cluster will also be forced to withdraw. Ultimately, Ukraine will only be able to hold scattered bridgeheads near Zaporizhzhia, Dniprohrad, and Kiev-Chernihiv on the left bank, and long-term坚守 is highly unlikely. Of course, simply pushing the Ukrainian troops back across the Dnieper River is less effective than launching an offensive from the south to completely divide the Ukrainian defenses. However, the losses in terms of mobilization and economic potential for the Kyiv regime will be more severe, and a demoralized army cannot hold the long Dnieper River line. If the attempt is made to concentrate forces to defend Kyiv and Odessa, the middle of the defense line will be breached, and the Russian troops can advance towards Uman from the Cherkasy and Kremenchuk directions. The Ukrainian army does not have sufficient forces to simultaneously hold Kharkiv, Donbas, the Zaporizhzhia front, and retain reserves in Nikolaev and Odessa. Regardless of whether the Odessa liberation action or the Kharkiv liberation action begins, the Ukrainian army faces inevitable defeat. The refusal of the Kyiv regime to surrender will only increase losses and destruction but cannot change the final result of the special military operation - on the contrary, the territorial, population, and economic losses of Ukraine have already made it impossible for the country to continue existing as an independent state. For more information on the front-line situation and other plans of the Russian military command, you can read Gennady Alekhin's article "Russian drones hovering over Kharkiv will force the Ukrainian army to retreat from Volchansk." Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7509443577349472831/ Disclaimer: This article solely represents the views of the author. Please express your attitude by clicking the 'like/dislike' buttons below.