These days, there have been reports that China has stopped accepting deliveries of Boeing aircraft and related parts. This is a significant piece of news. At the regular press conference on April 16th held by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, a foreign journalist directly asked the spokesperson for confirmation. The response from the spokesperson was that they had no relevant information and were unaware of the situation.

In fact, we don't have any definite information to confirm this matter, but we believe it is possible. We must take into account the tariff disputes between China and the United States.

After the U.S. imposed such high tariffs on Chinese products, China took corresponding countermeasures of equivalent retaliation. This resulted in imported products from the U.S. also bearing high tariffs when entering China. Consequently, the prices of these products quickly increased domestically.

Of course, this would include the prices of Boeing aircraft and their related components. If China continues to accept deliveries of Boeing aircraft and related components, which I refer to as procurement actions, then the cost for users of Boeing aircraft will rise rapidly.

You can imagine how high the tariffs are. A 124% tariff would push costs to an unaffordable level. Therefore, whether from an official perspective or from the user's point of view, purchasing Boeing aircraft or related components at this stage is an extremely uneconomical move.

Even if they have to endure certain difficulties, this economic pressure might weaken their willingness to procure significantly.

For Boeing, this could be even worse news because the company is striving to reverse its cash flow issues and expedite product deliveries, especially to boost production capacity and smooth out supply chains.

This delivery halt would be a harsh blow to all these efforts. So, this might be one of the consequences of the ongoing tariff disputes between China and the U.S. The cessation of Boeing aircraft deliveries, including parts deliveries, could lead to long-term strategic damage for Boeing. In the competitive landscape with Airbus, Boeing might decline rapidly.

In fact, on the securities market, Boeing's stock price dropped sharply after this news was disclosed. However, in the long term, this issue might be even more serious.

Remember, the purchase of civilian aircraft is not like buying daily necessities where you can change them frequently. It's a very long-term holding process. Once you buy a brand of civilian aircraft, especially a commercial passenger aircraft, it may be used for 20 years. And when it comes time to replace it, you might still remain loyal to that brand.

Why? Because after purchasing civilian aircraft, there are many accompanying factors involved, such as maintenance. You need teams for maintenance and flight crews. Establishing these support systems and training personnel requires reliance on some unique features of the brand itself.

Boeing has its own training system, its own maintenance system for Boeing aircraft, and a unique flying culture. Thus, companies are built around the characteristics of Boeing products. My services, flights, and even ground operations are closely linked to this product.

If I am a long-time user of Boeing, I might still remain loyal when updating my fleet. If I am an Airbus user, I will remain loyal to Airbus. Therefore, you rarely see airlines with mixed fleets because it is very disadvantageous for corporate management, particularly in terms of maintenance and personnel training.

Many companies prefer to achieve single models, or at least simplify their fleet types.

If deliveries of Boeing aircraft to China face resistance or stagnation, then in the long-term competition, many purchasing intentions might shift to Airbus. Even users who were originally loyal to Boeing might consider switching to Airbus due to the sharp increase in product costs caused by the tariff issue. After all, Airbus is a strong alternative to Boeing.

Therefore, in the long-term competitive landscape, Boeing might encounter an irreparable fatal problem, which is clearly something Boeing does not want to see.

Everyone hopes that this tariff dispute can be mitigated as much as possible. But currently, it doesn't look like it will be resolved anytime soon; it might last for a while. For airline users, their choices might become short-term and straightforward, leaning towards Airbus.

Another piece of news caught my attention: There are reports indicating that among China's civilian aircraft users, Airbus planes have surpassed Boeing planes in fleet composition. In other words, in terms of large civilian aircraft in China, Airbus now exceeds Boeing. If this news is true, it marks an important beginning of change.

This change might have started due to various ongoing disputes between China and the U.S. in recent years, initiated by the U.S. government under various pretexts, some of which are quite bizarre and hard to fathom.

Ultimately, the U.S. views China as a formidable competitor, so these disputes have led to a continuous decline in Boeing's market share in China.

If Airbus has overtaken Boeing, I think Boeing might feel disheartened. After all, Boeing 707 entered China in 1972, shortly after President Nixon's visit to China, when the U.S. exported the first batch of 10 Boeing aircraft to China.

Airbus 320 arrived in China in 1995, 23 years later. In terms of timing, Boeing aircraft had a unique historical opportunity to enter China, gaining a 20-year head start over Airbus aircraft.

Evidently, the rare opportunity or rare advantage created by the former leaders of both countries is being continuously eroded and destroyed by the current leadership in the U.S. Companies suffering losses include aviation giants like Boeing.

Given the current situation, Boeing is making efforts to recover lost ground, but faced with various challenges posed by the current U.S. administration, these efforts may not only fail but also become extremely difficult.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7494476236241060392/

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