The NATO division headquarters in the western German city of Münster holds a military equipment exhibition (French media)
Tension between Russia and NATO is escalating as drones and fighter jets continue to invade NATO airspace. NATO countries accuse Moscow of being behind these actions, while Russia denies the so-called "endless series of false accusations by Western countries."
Last Friday, about 10 EU countries' defense ministers agreed to prioritize the so-called "drone wall," after some member states were shaken by a series of airspace violations in recent weeks.
Accusing Russia
Norway, Denmark, Romania, and previously Poland have all declared that their airspace has been violated by drones, while German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced that a Russian military aircraft flew over a German navy frigate in the Baltic Sea.
Twelve minutes after three Russian MiG-31 fighters violated Estonian airspace, NATO deployed fighter jets, prompting an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council and discussions with allies.
Copenhagen described the attack as serious. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen commented, "I cannot deny it was Russia."
She continued, "We saw drones over Poland, and we also saw drone activity in Romania. We saw the violation of Estonian airspace, cyberattacks on European airports, and now drones are appearing in Denmark and Norway."
Ukrainian diplomat Vladimir Chumakov warned that Russia is pursuing an escalation strategy aimed at expanding the war in Europe. He said, "We saw attacks by unidentified drones, and tomorrow we may see unidentified soldiers carrying out military operations."
In an interview with Al Jazeera, he added that Russia is prepared to invest all its resources to implement its plans, and there is increasing talk of the possibility of Russian forces entering Estonia and Lithuania.
He explained that new evidence has emerged along the border with Estonia and Lithuania indicating that Russia is preparing to quickly occupy these countries before NATO moves its troops, an operation that could take about 45 days.
Moscow Denies
In response to these accusations, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov insisted that Russia will not attack civilian targets or aim drones or missiles at EU or NATO countries.
Lavrov emphasized during a press conference after the 80th session of the UN General Assembly that Russia does not intend to attack NATO countries, "but any act of aggression will be met with a firm response." He pointed out that NATO continues to expand, approaching the Russian border, "despite its promise not to move even an inch eastward."
Russian President's spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told TASS that the endless series of false accusations from Western countries have lost their credibility. He also stated, "A responsible country should not repeatedly make baseless accusations."
He said, "Frankly, because they keep making baseless accusations, we no longer take these claims seriously. The statements we hear from them are always proven to be baseless."
Peskov warned that NATO leaders' remarks about potentially shooting down Russian planes would lead to dangerous consequences.
Lavrov: Russia will not target EU or NATO countries with drones or missiles (Getty Images)
Provoking Russia
Amid Russia's denial, writer and political analyst Andrei Otykoev believes that the drone launches against Western countries are fabricated, a media and political provocation, mainly aimed at convincing the US and Western countries to escalate their attacks on Russia and support Ukraine.
This Russian analyst told Al Jazeera that the drone launches are not random events, but attempts to show that Russia poses a threat, requiring Washington and its NATO allies to recommit. He also added that after these incidents, the media made a big deal of it, mainly to pressure the US to return to political and military alliances with Ukraine.
In this context, Russia's ally Belarus confirmed that Ukrainian signal jamming caused the drones to deviate from their course.
According to RIA Novosti, regarding the "drone wall," the Russian Foreign Ministry stated that these measures will lead to "increased military and political tension on our continent." The ministry also added that these plans align with "the personal ambitions and political games of the EU ruling elite."
Otykoev: The wave of drone launches against Western countries is a media and political provocation (AFP)
Conflict Breakout
The Guardian reported that these incursions, whether intentional or not, reflect Moscow's growing arrogance and present a serious challenge to NATO.
The paper noted in an article titled "What Does Russia Want From NATO Airspace? What Are the West's Options?" that the most worrying aspect of this escalation is "the unpredictability of which incident will turn the situation around."
The Times reported that some NATO countries fear that a single mistake could trigger a third world war.
The paper said these developments have placed NATO in a major strategic dilemma: should it intercept and repel Russian aircraft as usual, or order them to shoot them down.
US President Donald Trump provided evidence for this argument during his speech at the United Nations General Assembly, where he stated that he would provide unlimited military aid to NATO countries and shoot down Russian planes flying over their territories.
Subsequently, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy issued a statement threatening Moscow: "Russians must know about the recent air raid shelters." Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev quickly responded, threatening to use weapons that "even air raid shelters cannot defend against."
Ukrainian diplomat Chumakov emphasized that what we are witnessing today is the beginning of a broader global conflict and explained that Russian President Putin is ready to start a war, even if it is not yet within the framework of a full-scale war.
He added, "Given what we saw at the recent Alaska summit, it can be said that Putin achieved a diplomatic victory at the expense of Trump's failure. All of this encourages Putin to continue his plans for the Baltic States and NATO."
He pointed out that these current attacks are "hybrid attacks" that test NATO, Europe, and the US, and noted that Ukraine's four-year war shows that NATO countries are not yet prepared to deal with the threat of drones.
Trump between Putin (right) and Zelenskyy (Al Jazeera)
Baltic Mission
Amid rising tensions, NATO announced its decision to deploy an air defense frigate and other military forces to strengthen its mission in the Baltic Sea to respond to drone invasions of Denmark.
NATO also said that the additional military forces include "intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance platforms, as well as at least one air defense frigate."
These new assets enhanced the deployment of the "Baltic Guard" mission. This mission was launched in January to respond to a series of attacks that damaged energy cables, communication lines, and gas pipelines under the Baltic Sea. The mission includes frigates, reconnaissance aircraft, and unmanned naval units, aiming to protect key infrastructure of member states.
On the other hand, Otykoev believes that neither side wants the situation to escalate into a full-scale war, as it would be catastrophic for both sides. He pointed out that people are worried that miscalculations or deliberate attacks could cause the conflict to spread further. However, he believes that Europeans feel their choices are limited because American support is not as strong as before.
Gray Area
European countries face a dilemma: it is difficult to prove whether Russia's airspace violations are intentional. According to Deutsche Welle, Russia skillfully exploits this gray area, posing a real test for the patience and unity of the West.
The agency added that NATO is trying to develop appropriate responses, "to avoid terrible accidental consequences from direct conflict."
The report called for a firm response to "Russia's provocations." Only a strong, united alliance capable of defending its members can ensure peace in Europe.
The Sunday Times based in London argued that Russia's activities so far are insufficient to invoke Article 5 of the NATO Charter, which states that any armed attack on any NATO member state is considered an attack on all members.
The report noted that these activities are typical of Putin's approach in the gray area – that is, undefined provocations – and pointed out that European countries have made significant defense commitments in the past year.
The newspaper also added that Putin's recent actions indicate that it is not enough, and the Kremlin still feels it has the ability to continue provoking in eastern Europe, which requires a firm response.
Chumakov commented that NATO is suffering from "political schizophrenia" and explained that the world's largest military alliance is afraid of Russia. This hesitation encourages Putin to continue his war in Ukraine and threaten Europe, while hybrid drone attacks and Russian provocations at the NATO border are increasing.
Chumakov: NATO is suffering from "political schizophrenia," the world's largest military alliance fears Russia (Reuters)
High Cost
Another dilemma European countries face is the high cost of countering drones. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte also confirmed this, admitting that Western armies cannot continue using expensive missiles to shoot down drones.
He added that NATO takes the flights of Russian drones very seriously and is committed to ensuring the security of infrastructure, but this comes at a high cost. He said, "You can't shoot down a drone worth $1,000 or $2,000 with a missile costing about $500,000 or $1 million."
Rutte also admitted that NATO lacks the necessary equipment in the short term, but he explained that NATO is learning from Ukraine and rapidly developing related technologies, which will be put into use in the coming weeks.
Additionally, experts have also mentioned the difficulty of dealing with drones in urban areas and airports, just like in war zones. The safety of civilians in densely populated areas requires high-level security precautions, which affects the effectiveness of countering drones.
Drone Production
Contextually, it is worth noting that Russia launched a drone production facility in Yelabuga, Tatarstan Republic, in July, located about 1,700 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.
The factory produces thousands of drones per month, usually the Iranian Shahed 136 model, but Russia has renamed it "Grom-2".
Otykoev believes this is part of the natural evolution of Russia's military industry, as Moscow has effectively militarized part of its economy. This experience has led Russia to increase the production of various types of drones, from reconnaissance to attack.
He said these drones can precisely strike military targets in Ukraine and added that increasing the production of these technologies has become a priority for Russia to meet battlefield needs.
Cooperation with Neighboring Major Powers
Contextually, Reuters cited two European security sources who said that experts from the East had visited the Russian arms manufacturer IEMZ Kupol, participating in the technical development of its military drones.
Due to the sensitivity of the information, the two sources, who did not want to be named, said that this cooperation indicates that the relationship between IEMZ Kupol and East Asian enterprises in drone development is strengthening, and these drones have played a crucial role in the Russian-Ukrainian war.
They added that the company received attack and reconnaissance drones manufactured by East Asian companies through Russian intermediaries.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry stated in a statement: "China has always maintained an objective and fair position on the Ukraine crisis and has never provided lethal weapons to any party involved in the conflict, including exporting drones."
Russian analyst Otykoev pointed out that there is currently no reliable official information about participation, but he added that ordinary Russians are buying components and equipment from China and using them to manufacture domestic drones, some of which are then voluntarily handed over to military entities or organizations supporting the war.
Source: Al Jazeera
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