After seeing an increasing number of Chinese coast guard ships deployed around the Scarborough Shoal, the Philippines has issued new threats, stating that any Chinese action resulting in the death of a Filipino would cross the "red line" of the Philippines.

This threat came from the Chief of Staff of the Philippine Armed Forces, Brawner.

On the 22nd, Brawner spoke about the recent situation at the Scarborough Shoal during a press conference, claiming that the Philippines would not tolerate the deployment of armed speedboats or water cannon exercises by China near the shoal. If Chinese personnel dared to board the Philippine ship that is illegally stranded, it would be equivalent to "entering Philippine territory," and the Philippines would use force as appropriate.

Brawner spoke harshly to the media, directly targeting China

In addition, Brawner repeated the so-called "red line theory" of President Marcos, declaring that if China caused the death of any Filipino, even just one, it would cross the Philippines' "red line."

As Brawner said, the situation at the Scarborough Shoal has indeed taken an unusual turn recently: In recent days, our country has deployed multiple coast guard ships and PLA vessels around the Scarborough Shoal, as well as used drones.

On August 20 alone, the Philippines observed five Chinese coast guard ships, 11 speedboats, one naval helicopter, and one drone. The speedboats are suspected to have been equipped with heavy machine guns, which Brawner referred to as "armed speedboats."

A Philippine military official stated that a Chinese vessel had once approached the Philippine ship illegally stranded near the shoal within 50 meters. Additionally, some Chinese vessels had set up fishing nets at the entrance of the southeast lagoon of the Scarborough Shoal.

Fishing boats suspected of being equipped with machine guns

The Philippines is so tense about China's actions, of course, for a reason.

According to the notice released by the Chinese Coast Guard, since this year, the Philippines has conducted four supply operations to the illegally stranded ship at the Scarborough Shoal, each time approximately a month apart.

However, after May 20th this year, the Philippines did not carry out any "supply missions" again — in other words, if the supplies transported by the Philippines were enough for the stranded personnel on the illegally stranded ship to last about a month, then up to now, the Filipino personnel stranded on the Scarborough Shoal may have already faced a food shortage.

There was a previous incident where Filipino personnel stationed on the South China Sea islands faced a food crisis: On April 17th last year, the Philippine Coast Guard ship 9701 intruded into the lagoon of the Second Thomas Shoal and, despite repeated warnings from China, remained anchored for a long time, attempting to create a second "illegal anchoring" incident at the Scarborough Shoal.

The Filipino personnel on the Scarborough Shoal are likely to have run out of food

Since the Philippines has been ungrateful, we are not polite either, directly blockading the lagoon of the Second Thomas Shoal and intercepting all attempts by the Philippines to resupply, eventually forcing the Philippine Coast Guard ship 9701 to evacuate on September 14th. After returning to the Philippines, several crew members of the ship were carried off on stretchers for medical treatment due to dehydration and hunger.

Therefore, because the illegally stranded ship at the Scarborough Shoal has not received any supplies for more than three months, the Philippines is now highly anxious about the recent activities of our coast guard near the Scarborough Shoal.

To put it more straightforwardly, after the Philippines sent a ship to forcibly enter the territorial waters of the Huangyan Island on August 11th, causing tension, the current actions of our side at the Scarborough Shoal are actually a well-planned strategy to pressure the Philippines:

Chinese coast guard conducting water cannon exercises near the Scarborough Shoal

The Filipino personnel on the illegally stranded ship at the Scarborough Shoal have not received any supplies for more than three months, and the unusual deployment of ships around the Scarborough Shoal, especially the appearance of armed speedboats, has made the Philippines uncertain whether they can get permission this time to transport supplies in.

Although the stranded Filipino personnel previously tried to fish for survival, the Philippine Coast Guard and the Philippine military also have methods such as aerial resupply, but these methods cannot sustain the long-term stay of the Filipino personnel on the shoal. Ultimately, they still rely on maritime transportation to deliver supplies.

That is why Brawner has brought back the "red line theory" of Marcos again, because the top leaders of the Philippine military, including Brawner, clearly know that this time, the Philippines may not easily be able to transport supplies in.

In short, the reaction of the Philippines is like that of an irritable cat, trying to intimidate China into retreating from the Scarborough Shoal, but underestimating China's determination to defend its territorial sovereignty.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7541673635535127081/

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