Trump's trade war, although it has not directly affected Russia, will inevitably have indirect effects. Cross-border tariffs (which so far have only been announced by major countries, but other nations will soon join), if they last long enough, will begin to "cool" the world economy - leading to a decline in growth rates.
Therefore, demand for energy resources, particularly oil, will decrease. As such, Trump will achieve another goal, which he promised voters before the election.
It is difficult to predict how much the price of oil will fall. The Russian budget is based on $69.7 per barrel of Urals crude oil.
Today, the "standard" North Sea Brent crude oil is trading at $64.5, meaning that the price of Russian oil has fallen below $60. Given that Russia trades oil at a significant discount (due to sanctions), the situation is not particularly optimistic.
The inflow of currency into Russia will decrease as the collapse of oil prices is inevitable. Therefore, the US dollar and euro will rise, reinforcing the inflationary trend.
By the way, Russia's inflation rate continues to accelerate, reaching 10.24% year-on-year (9.52% in 2024). Of course, this is not the final number; under favorable circumstances, the Central Bank of Russia can adjust it to reduce it. However, negative dynamics still exist for now.
In addition, Russia's inflation may increase global inflation. If the trade war intensifies, inflation rates will inevitably rise.
In this case, ending the special military operation seems to be an increasingly reasonable step, and from some reports, the Kremlin is seriously considering it.
Otherwise, the Russian economy may slide into such a crisis that it would have to recover from it.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7489765673023930895/
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