【By Observer Net, Wang Yi】 Recently, US President Trump threatened to terminate business relations between the United States and China in the edible oil and other trade areas due to China not purchasing American soybeans. He confidently claimed that the US could "produce its own edible oil" and "did not need to import from China".

However, on October 16, Bloomberg, a US media outlet, poured cold water on Trump, stating that his move would have limited impact on China and would also hurt the US itself because "the processing capacity is limited, and we cannot press enough quantity".

Although Trump did not explicitly mention the target product, it is widely believed that he referred to used cooking oil (UCO). This waste oil generated by households, restaurants, and food manufacturers can be processed into biodiesel, used as an alternative to fossil fuels. With increasing global pressure to reduce carbon emissions, such alternative fuels for vehicles are becoming increasingly popular in various sectors.

According to Time magazine, under the green transition policy of former US President Biden, the amount of UCO imported by the US from China has grown rapidly. In 2022, the US turned from a net exporter to a net importer of UCO, with a large portion of these imports coming from China. In 2023, China became the largest supplier of UCO to the US.

Data from the US Department of Agriculture show that in 2024, China's exports of UCO to the US reached a record high of 12.7 million tons, worth about $1.2 billion, accounting for 43% of China's total UCO exports.

Bloomberg pointed out that considering the US Environmental Protection Agency's plan to increase the blending ratio of biofuels in fuel in the next two years, the US may still rely on importing UCO. Although the federal government is pushing to expand domestic oil supply, the US processing capacity is limited, making it difficult to meet the demand of both the fuel and food industries. Jason Miner, an agricultural analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, said: "The bottleneck is that we cannot press enough."

In 2024, the US was the largest export market for China's used cooking oil.

Even if the US completely stopped importing Chinese UCO, the actual impact on China would be limited.

"Even if Trump truly banned the import of UCO from China as he said, this would be largely a symbolic act," the report cited data, stating that although the US imported a record 12.7 million tons of UCO from China last year, related imports had already declined before Trump made his threat. In the first seven months of 2025, China exported only 387,000 tons of UCO to the US, nearly halved compared to the previous year.

Dan Mackay, an analyst at Quantum Commodity Intelligence, a price reporting agency, said that part of China's UCO exports have been redirected to the EU, while others have been directed to sustainable aviation fuel producers in China. He said that the impact of the decline in US demand has been absorbed by the market, and after Trump's threat, there was no change in China's UCO export prices.

Two anonymous Chinese UCO traders told Reuters that Trump's comments had little impact on the market. One trader said, "Domestic producers now mainly accept European orders and no longer consider the US market."

Kang Wei Cheang, a Singapore-based agricultural broker at StoneX Group, analyzed that Chinese UCO traders may face short-term pressure and need to redirect some sources to Europe or digest inventory, but the overall impact would be limited.

In comparison, soybean trade is far more important to the US than UCO exports are to China. Even though China's UCO exports to the US reached a record high in 2024, totaling around $1.2 billion, the US soybean exports to China amounted to $12.6 billion.

China is the world's largest buyer of soybeans, mainly using them to extract soybean meal feed and edible soybean oil. Last year, US farmers supplied about one-fifth of China's soybean imports, and soybeans are one of the most important US agricultural exports. However, since May this year, China has not purchased any soybeans from the US again. As of mid-September, no ships have been booked for the new harvest season, and instead, large amounts have been purchased from South American countries like Brazil and Argentina.

Dan Basse, president of Chicago Agricultural Resources Company, estimated that if China does not enter the US soybean market by mid-November, the total loss of US soybean sales to China could reach 14 to 16 million tons.

This has raised concerns among US farmers. David Burrier, a farmer from Maryland, told AFP, "This will be a very difficult year. About 40% of our farmland may only break even or incur losses." He warned that if China continues to stop buying US soybeans, it would be a "top-level alert".

Scott Gerlt, chief economist at the US Soybean Association, said that US farmers are facing greater financial pressure, with lower crop income and rising costs of fertilizers and agricultural equipment due to tariff policies. Chad Hart, a professor at Iowa State University, said that the number of bankrupt farms in the US has increased by about 50% compared to last year.

To reduce dependence on the Chinese market, US soybean farmers hope to develop markets in Southeast Asia, North Africa, and other regions. However, Reuters pointed out that the alternative markets for US exports are small and cannot replace the position of China, the world's largest soybean importer.

Professor Shen Yi from the School of International Politics at Fudan University wrote in an article on Observer Net that the US's choice to "target China's edible oil" is essentially to show strength to domestic soybean interest groups. If the US really bans the import of waste oil, its biodiesel industry will suffer. Waste oil plays an important role in the US's green fuel policy, and its price is closely related to subsidy policies. A ban on these raw materials could shake the supply base of the US's new energy industry. It is a saying that "those who harm others will inevitably harm themselves, and those who harm others will inevitably harm themselves". There are already voices in the US pointing out that such policies lack industrial considerations.

Regarding Trump's threat to stop importing Chinese edible oil, Lin Jian, spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, stated on the 15th that China's position on handling Sino-US trade and economic issues has always been consistent and clear. A trade war and a tariff war have no winners and do not benefit any party. Both sides should negotiate to resolve relevant issues on the basis of equality, respect, and mutual benefit.

This article is exclusive to Observer Net and may not be reprinted without permission.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7561846578651103795/

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