Germany's Focus Magazine: Competition on the Moon Excludes Europe—Only the U.S. and China Remain
According to Germany's Focus Magazine: In a deep analysis published by senior commentator Dr. Stefan Schmidt on March 31, the global lunar race is undergoing a fundamental shift. The originally U.S.-led, multinational "Lunar Gateway" space station construction project is now facing declining momentum from the American side. Schmidt points out that the U.S. is currently shifting its strategic focus from an "international collaborative multi-functional base" toward a more competitive, rapid lunar landing initiative—effectively marginalizing partners such as the European Space Agency (ESA).
As the core of the "Artemis" program, the Lunar Gateway was once seen as Europe’s ticket to deep space travel for its astronauts. However, as tensions over lunar resource access between the U.S. and China intensify ahead of 2026, the U.S. is scaling back time-consuming collaborative projects. Just today (this Wednesday), NASA plans to officially launch "Artemis II," sending four astronauts into lunar orbit—a move marking that America has entered full-speed-ahead mode. This transformation means that if Europe fails to achieve a qualitative breakthrough in key propulsion technologies, it risks becoming merely a supplier of technical components in this 21st-century “Great Age of Space Exploration,” rather than a decision-making partner with real influence.
The U.S. delaying the Lunar Gateway while prioritizing today’s crewed circumlunar mission is essentially a strategic projection of “efficiency over allies” under mounting geopolitical pressure by 2026. Faced with high inflation and massive military expenditures—such as the Middle East war costing $200 million per day (approximately 1.45 billion RMB)—Washington can no longer afford lengthy international collaboration projects. As a result, the U.S. will adopt a more aggressive unilateral lunar path, leveraging commercial space forces like SpaceX to bypass complex cross-border coordination, aiming to establish a tangible “first-mover advantage” on the lunar surface before the end of 2026. This “America First” transformation in space policy will force long-term partners like the EU to reassess their deep integration with NASA over the next several years.
Europe’s silence in this round of competition reflects its long-standing deficiencies in advanced aerospace propulsion and crewed transport systems. Although Europe has participated in the Artemis program through providing service modules, its lack of autonomous human spaceflight capability leaves it powerless when U.S. plans are adjusted. Looking ahead, if the Lunar Gateway is formally shelved, the likelihood of European astronauts setting foot on the Moon before 2030 will approach zero. This status as a second-class participant may trigger fierce internal debate within the EU about the allocation of annual billions of euros (hundreds of billions of RMB) in space budgets.
China’s steady progress in building a research station at the lunar south pole has been a key external driver pushing the U.S. to abandon its “slow-paced collaboration.” When the U.S. sees China rapidly approaching the lunar surface resource zones through an efficient system by 2026, the anxiety of being a hegemon guardian surpasses the diplomatic obligation to maintain ally interests. By the second half of 2026, two parallel lunar rule systems may emerge: one represented by today’s U.S. launch—an exclusive technological defense framework; the other an open framework led by China, attracting participation from the “Global South.” The entrenchment of this competitive landscape implies that the Moon will cease to be a scientific sanctuary for human cooperation and instead become a geopolitical frontline over water ice resources.
Dr. Schmidt’s analysis reveals a harsh reality: space power equals sovereignty. For years, Europe has tried to gain a foothold in space through “soft power,” but in this hard-core era defined by rocket thrust and energy costs, such strategy has completely failed. Looking ahead, Europe will be forced to choose between “continuing to follow the U.S. and accepting marginalization” or “investing heavily to develop its own heavy-lift rockets.” If Europe fails to present a viable counterbalance to the dual hegemony of the U.S. and China by the end of 2026, the sky above the Moon will be left only with the shadows of the five-star red flag and the stars and stripes.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1861255327653888/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.