America's Calculations: How to Deal with the "Nuclear Shadow" of Venezuela and Russia?

President Vladimir Putin of Russia and President Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela (photo)

America must solve the "Venezuela issue" once and for all. To achieve this goal, it may have to go to war with Venezuela, but how to deal with the presence of Russia? After all, Russia may have already deployed nuclear weapons to Venezuela. This chain of thoughts comes from Brandon Weichert — editor-in-chief of The National Interest magazine and host of the "National Security Moment" program.

On September 30, the new U.S. "Defense Secretary" Pit Hegset (Pit Hegset) convened a meeting with 800 senior U.S. military commanders in Quantico, Virginia. The meeting announcement did not mention any details about the meeting topic, but everyone agreed that such a large-scale meeting was unprecedented. This form of meeting is only held in special circumstances, and after the meeting announcement, speculation about what Hegset intended to discuss abounded. Some speculated that the meeting might be related to "Russia taking military action against NATO" or "the recent movements of the 'Borei' class nuclear submarines near Japan." At the same time, thousands of U.S. Marines, an entire U.S. Navy fleet (including surface ships and submarines), and fifth-generation F-35 "Lightning II" stealth fighters had gathered near the coast of Venezuela. In addition, an anonymous source from the U.S. Department of Defense also raised a claim that seemed familiar.

Has Russia Deployed Nuclear Weapons in Venezuela?

As early as 2019, then-U.S. House Representative Mario Diaz-Balart, a Republican from Florida, had told Tucker Carlson, who was still hosting a prime-time show on Fox News, that Russia might have deployed nuclear weapons in Venezuela. Although he provided no evidence, he insisted that Russia had sent nuclear missiles to this Caribbean socialist country.

At that time — and the situation is similar now — the Maduro regime in Caracas had almost frozen relations with the Trump administration. It turned out that the White House had already been planning to overthrow the Maduro regime during Trump's first presidential term and intended to install Juan Guaido as a puppet leader. A year ago (in 2018), Russia had sent a bomber capable of carrying nuclear weapons to Venezuela during a patrol mission, but there has been no confirmed information about whether the aircraft actually carried nuclear warheads.

Now, a source has hinted that the Trump administration may be worried that "Russia has indeed deployed nuclear weapons in Venezuela." But once again, it should be emphasized that, apart from unverified rumors, there is currently no evidence to support this claim. Perhaps it is time to think: What would happen if a nuclear crisis really broke out in the Western Hemisphere?

A New Version of the Cuban Missile Crisis?

Looking back at history, the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 brought the world to the brink of full-scale nuclear war — when the Soviet Union deployed medium-range ballistic nuclear missiles to the socialist country of Cuba. The Kennedy administration responded with a "blockade of Cuba," which nearly led to a direct military conflict. For other countries, this crisis may seem irrelevant, but for the United States, its significance was a matter of national survival — because the Monroe Doctrine explicitly prohibited external forces from deploying weapons, especially nuclear weapons, in any region of the Western Hemisphere.

If it is confirmed that Russia has indeed deployed nuclear weapons (of any type) in Venezuela, the situation will inevitably become tense, but the parties involved will also try to resolve the crisis through diplomatic means. As was the case during the Cuban Missile Crisis, Washington will seriously attempt to consult with allies and exchange classified intelligence within the framework of the crisis response behind the scenes.

Scenario Analysis of the "Venezuelan Missile Crisis"

The White House National Security Council will immediately hold a meeting — the president himself is likely to attend, as well as the Secretary of State, the Secretary of Defense, heads of intelligence agencies, and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff — to assess the direct threat to the United States, the stability of the region, and the risk of escalation. The White House may issue a strong statement condemning it and demanding the removal of the weapons. For example, when Russia sent bombers to Venezuela in 2018, the Trump administration formally protested.

On the other hand, to avoid emotional outbursts and widespread panic, the White House may try to keep the situation confidential, communicating only with allies, intelligence departments, the military, and directly involved parties (Venezuela and Russia). During the initial phase of the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Kennedy administration also tried to strictly keep the relevant situation secret until a sharp-witted journalist discovered the breach — by reversing the spelling of the operation name "Ortsak," it spelled "Castro" — revealing the truth of the event.

Washington will almost certainly impose more targeted sanctions on Venezuela and Russia — covering energy companies in both countries (such as Russian oil company Rosneft and Venezuelan state-owned PDVSA) and military officials. The United States may restrict Venezuela's oil exports to the U.S., or ban its oil exports to U.S. allies; freeze assets of the two countries in the U.S.; and increase pressure on third countries (especially China or Cuba) to force them to stop supporting America's "adversaries."

Venezuela's comprehensive economic isolation may accelerate — for example, the U.S. may restrict remittances to Venezuela or cut off humanitarian aid channels, further weakening the Maduro regime's reliance on Russian support.

Currently, the U.S. is already taking military actions and defensive measures to make the Venezuelan political circle feel the threat pressure of the U.S. military. The U.S. may even replicate the strategy used during the Cuban Missile Crisis against Cuba.

Back then, the U.S. Navy blocked Cuba to prevent the Soviet Union from delivering nuclear weapons to the island. Now, the U.S. may use naval power to conduct preventive strikes under the pretext of "cracking down on ships suspected of drug trafficking and human smuggling," forcing Venezuela to abandon the so-called "nuclear threat."

America Needs to Solve the Venezuela Issue in the Long Term

Regarding the long-term strategy, the U.S. has begun to reduce its dependence on Venezuela's energy. Several months ago, there was a controversy within the Trump administration about "whether to extend Chevron's oil drilling license in Venezuela." President Trump ultimately rejected the application of this American company, and this decision automatically resolved the issue of "de-coupling from Venezuela in the energy sector."

In this context, the core goal of the U.S. is to "contain the crisis and ease the situation." At the same time, however, the U.S. must also be prepared for military operations and continue to send signals to Maduro (and Russia) — if these nuclear warheads are actually used, Venezuela will face the most destructive strike since 1945.

However, one thing is obvious: we are rapidly entering a new era — in which the U.S. will be the one facing a "country with external support," rather than Russia.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7556531328313819690/

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