China Nuclear Power: China's Research on Extracting Uranium from Seawater

Last month, the International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA] released the "Red Book" report. Experts warned that the world's proven uranium resources are expected to be depleted by 2080. This means that after the oil era, the uranium era also seems to be nearing its end. In response to this prediction, the Kazakh Information Agency asked experts about the sustainability of global uranium resources.

According to a Financial Times report, global interest in nuclear energy is reaching its highest point since the oil crisis of the 1970s. Since 2020, annual investment growth in the nuclear energy sector has been approximately 50%, with expectations for a 130% increase in nuclear energy capacity by 2050. If this pace continues, the world's proven uranium resources will be exhausted before 2080.

How much uranium does the world currently have in reserve? According to IAEA data from 2023, the world's proven uranium reserves amount to approximately 8 million tons. Australia leads with 1.7 million tons, Kazakhstan ranks second with 900,000 tons, and Canada is third with 600,000 tons. Canadian uranium quality is relatively high. Following are Russia (500,000 tons), Namibia, Africa's largest uranium producer (450,000 tons), and Uzbekistan (200,000 tons). It should be noted that these figures only apply to uranium resources that can be extracted using current technologies.

The world's largest consumer of uranium is the United States, accounting for 60% of enriched uranium consumption, followed by China, Russia, and France. France has been nearly fully reliant on nuclear power since the last century, with approximately 80% of its electricity coming from uranium. The United States, the United Kingdom, and South Korea plan to significantly increase their nuclear energy capacity by 2050. Giants such as Microsoft and Amazon are also investing in nuclear energy, focusing on advanced technologies, data centers, and artificial intelligence systems.

Industry insiders worry that Western energy companies may face uranium shortages due to increased demand. Notably, Kazakhstan currently holds 43% of the global uranium market share. In recent years, Kazakhstan has increased its exports of uranium to Russia and China while reducing exports to the U.S. and Europe. In 2022, Kazakhstan's uranium production exceeded the combined total of Canada, Namibia, Australia, and Uzbekistan.

In 2024, Kazakhstan's uranium production will increase by another 10%, rising from 21,112 tons in 2023 to 23,270 tons. However, uranium sales fell by 8% last year, reaching 16,600 tons. Despite this, Kazatomprom, Kazakhstan's state-owned nuclear company, doubled its net profit in 2024 to 1.13 trillion tenge, with an average price of about $55 per pound (0.45 kilograms) of uranium.

Is Uranium More Important Than Oil?

All resources on Earth are finite, whether it's oil, water, natural gas, or uranium. Therefore, humans view wind and solar energy as inexhaustible alternatives. Energy expert Abuzhal Narenbetov believes that more uranium mines may be discovered before 2080, and potential reserves still have room for development, which could extend the predicted depletion time.

He mentioned that in the last century, American geophysicist Marion King Hubbert once predicted that "oil would run out in 1978," but half a century later, new oil fields were discovered in the North Sea, and shale oil technology emerged. The key lies in new technologies and innovations extending the lifespan of resources. Currently, the peak oil forecast has been postponed to 2040, refuting the outdated view that it would peak between 2019 and 2020.

Narenbetov pointed out that resource replenishment is influenced by prices. Uranium prices plummeted in the 2000s and are now rebounding. Market fluctuations should be viewed as cyclical changes. The IAEA states that Kazakhstan has 900,000 tons of uranium reserves, but Narenbetov, after integrating corporate data, believes the actual reserves are 567,000 tons, with Kazatomprom holding 53% (301,000 tons), Rosatom of Russia holding 25% (141,000 tons), and the remainder owned by Canadian, Chinese, French, and Japanese enterprises.

He added that regarding potential resources, Kazatomprom owns 509,000 tons, Rosatom 193,000 tons, and the remaining four countries' enterprises own a combined 148,000 tons. Global uranium reserves are indeed decreasing, but other countries may be waiting for prices to rise before resuming extraction. A decade ago, the company experienced a sharp drop in uranium prices due to over-supply, a lesson they learned well.

The demand for artificial intelligence and data processing is driving energy demand, and modular reactors are currently being tested. Narenbetov emphasized, "Uranium is more important than oil. Oil is mainly used as fuel and can be replaced by natural gas; whereas uranium, as the core of energy, concerns the future of humanity."

4.5 Billion Tons of Uranium in the Ocean

Oil and gas expert Askar Ismailov believes that the oil era will not end within the next 20-30 years, nor will the uranium era. The global oil market exceeds $3 trillion, and oil companies need to recover capital investments and will not easily exit. Specialized technologies like offshore drilling equipment cannot be easily transferred to other industries.

He suspects that the uranium depletion forecast may be part of a public relations campaign to weaken sanctions against Russian uranium, as Russia supplies a large amount of enriched uranium. If supply were interrupted, Western nuclear power plants would shut down. He also mentioned that China is experimenting with extracting uranium from seawater, where the ocean contains about 4.5 billion tons of uranium, enough to sustain thousands of years, but industrial production needs to be achieved.

As for alternative energy sources, cost and stability remain bottlenecks. Ismailov believes that given the limited economic conditions for the majority of the global population, the demand for alternative energy is unlikely to increase significantly in the short term.

Summary

There is no need to overly worry about the IAEA's predictions. Many countries around the world may still have unexplored uranium mines, and some producers may delay extraction while waiting for prices to rise. The Kazakh Information Agency attempted to contact the Ministry of Energy but was redirected to the newly established nuclear energy agency, which did not respond due to an incomplete team. Kazatomprom also did not reply to requests for expert opinions.

Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1831976925510729/

Disclaimer: The article solely represents the author's views.