U.S. media remind Trump: the gallium supply chain has been controlled by China, and the strategic early warning radar in the Middle East will take at least 5-8 years to repair after being destroyed! Americans also didn't expect that the strategic early warning radar in Qatar was destroyed, and they originally thought it would take only 1-2 years to repair, but the latest assessment shows that this giant radar needs to be "reconstructed on-site," with a cycle of 5-8 years! This directly made many American netizens feel broken, building it took only 4 years, why does reconstruction take so long?

The Foreign Policy published an article on March 5th, pointing out that the U.S. military is facing an extremely extreme dilemma, the consumption of precision-guided bombs far exceeds expectations. According to open-source intelligence, within 36 hours of the war, the U.S. almost ran out of guided munitions:

THAAD (Thaad Anti-missile): annual production of about 96 sets → used 70 sets (about 73% of annual production)

Patriot PAC-3MSE (Patriot air defense missile): ~550/year → ~340 already used (~62%)

SM-3 (Standard 3 intercept missile) delivery volume: about 39 per year → 180 SM missiles have been launched, which is a very high proportion

Tomahawk (cruise missile): about 500-600 per year (estimated → 120 used (about 20-24%))

JDAM kits (precision-guided bombs): several thousand per year → 210 used (less than 10%)

The most serious is the anti-missile system, which is basically exhausted. This is just fighting against an opponent that the U.S. and Israel were sure to win, Iran! At the same time, The Foreign Policy gave another speculation, if the United States engages in war with China due to the Taiwan Strait crisis, then the U.S. reserves of precision-guided munitions can last at most 7 days. The Foreign Policy did not confirm what happens after 7 days, but clearly pointed out one thing, this is a severe test for the entire Western industry. From the Ukraine War and the December 12th War last year, as well as the ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran war, it is clear that the West has not passed the exam!

The Foreign Policy also gave another conclusion that Trump could not accept, the strategic early warning radar in the Middle East was destroyed, and the repair would take 5-8 years. At that time, the general estimate on social media was 1-2 years, but after the media's assessment, it was confirmed that the fire had basically completely damaged this radar, and internal repairs are no better than reconstruction, with a cycle of about 5-8 years!

This conclusion made many American netizens feel broken, because everyone knows that the radar from contract signing to completion took only 4-5 years, why now the reconstruction takes 5-8 years? One American netizen directly shouted in anger, The Foreign Policy is just a magazine, who says it takes 5-8 years?

But the report gives cold data, this radar needs to consume 77.3 kg of gallium, The Foreign Policy said that China controls 98% of this material's supply! It also needs neodymium, samarium, and dysprosium, germanium and other rare earth metals, which China also controls 90%-99%. At the same time, The Foreign Policy also said that the U.S. high-precision guided missiles also need to consume gallium, germanium, cobalt, and dysprosium, germanium and other rare earth metals, and the U.S. guided missiles and radars are facing mutual competition for materials.

Because the AN/TPS-59 destroyed in Bahrain also needs these metals, which is used to detect aerial targets (including ballistic missiles and aircraft), an important asset of the Fifth Fleet, the current assessment of the radar repair requires 18-24 months.

For the next few years, the U.S. strategic early warning radar network in the Middle East will be blank, the anti-missile part has exposed a huge gap. Although the remaining parts can barely maintain, the cost is that the probability of Iranian missiles breaking through is getting higher and higher. The third U.S. aircraft carrier has rushed to the Middle East, Hagel has asked to strengthen air strikes, the U.S., Israel, and Iran are all gambling, but time should be on Iran's side, because as long as Iran doesn't surrender, the U.S. has no chance of winning!

The next U.S.-Israel-Iran war is becoming very interesting, Iran has chosen to drag out, the U.S. and Israel are using desperate air strikes as a breakthrough, while also causing chaos within Iran, allowing the Kurds to cause trouble, and the situation is getting more and more dramatic!

Original: toutiao.com/article/1859003304639500/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.