[By Guancha Observer Wang Kaixuan] Three weeks ago, US President Trump announced the long-planned "reciprocal tariffs," which were much larger in scale and scope than expected. As countries searched for countermeasures amidst anger and concern, China has taken "eleven measures" and has been the first to retaliate against the US.
In the face of increasing pressure from the US, China has vowed to "accompany until the end." Trump's administration's tariff extortion has encountered a steel wall in China.
Multiple foreign media outlets have analyzed that China holds several cards in this contest, including increasingly diversified export markets, irreplaceable supply chains, and control over key strategic minerals. Additionally, the trade war initiated by Trump during his first term has already reduced China's dependence on American imports.
Meanwhile, in the US, the trade war and chaotic policies have significantly reduced domestic growth expectations, causing severe damage to financial markets. American farmers, who have lost their largest market, are complaining, and "tariff refugees" who cannot do without Chinese goods are flocking to Chinese e-commerce platforms. Public dissatisfaction with the Trump administration is rapidly rising among the US population.
Many renowned scholars, including Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman and Thomas Friedman, author of *The World Is Flat*, believe that Trump will lose the trade war with China.
Under domestic and international pressures, the White House and Treasury Secretary have lowered their tone. Trump denied on April 22 that he would take a "hard stance" against China and believed that an agreement could be reached with China, with "substantial reductions" in tariffs.
"Negotiations are open; confrontation is inevitable." For the trade war instigated by the US side, China's position has been clear and consistent. Previously, China has repeatedly emphasized that it does not want to fight but is not afraid to fight. America's retrogressive actions are unpopular and will ultimately fail.
"China has been prepared for a long time, and the US feels stronger pain."
The South Korean newspaper *Hankyook Ilbo* reported on April 17 that China did not budge in the face of Trump's trade declaration because of the starkly different trade structures between the two countries. China mainly exports consumer goods to the US, while the US exports industrial raw materials and intermediate products to China. This means that as tariffs escalate, Americans will feel the "pain of tariffs" more distinctly in their daily lives.
Chung Ji-hyun (translated name), head of the China Group at the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, analyzed that American consumers dependent on Chinese consumer goods will strongly feel the impact of tariffs. Due to the difficulty of finding substitutes for Chinese-made consumer goods, they may face rising prices. In contrast, since the beginning of Trump's first term, China has actively implemented a diversified import strategy, establishing alternative supply channels and significantly improving self-sufficiency rates for raw materials.
On October 7, 2021, in Fairfield, Ohio, soybeans were loaded into trucks from a combine harvester. Oriental IC
The report pointed out that after experiencing the trade war during Trump's first term, China has gradually reduced its reliance on American imports. The proportion of American goods in China's total imports dropped from 8.4% in 2017 to 6.4% last year.
Taking soybeans as an example, China has been the largest buyer of American soybeans for many years. In 2024, the total value of American soybean exports to China was nearly $12.8 billion, about half of its total soybean exports. However, since the start of Trump's first term, the share of American soybeans in the Chinese market has significantly shrunk.
*Nikkei Asia* pointed out that in 2017, American soybeans accounted for nearly 40% of China's total soybean imports, but by 2024, this proportion had fallen to around 20%. Meanwhile, the import volume of Brazilian soybeans rose from 50% in 2017 to 70%. Moreover, the report found that China has frozen its purchase orders for American soybeans and corn since mid-January and increased purchases from Brazil and other countries.
The same situation also occurred in the energy sector. Shipping data shows that as of April 18, China has stopped importing American liquefied natural gas (LNG) for 70 days, continuously setting a new record for the longest interval in five years.
Data shows that China has suspended imports of liquefied natural gas from the US. Bloomberg chart
In the technology sector, China has also been actively laying groundwork in recent years. Catherine Thorbecke, a columnist for Bloomberg, wrote in a recent commentary that for many years, China's technology industry has been coping with export restrictions, forcing it to do more with fewer resources and pushing top-down support to achieve broader technological goals.
Thorbecke pointed out that under the trade war, it is the Silicon Valley companies reliant on Chinese suppliers that will be affected. The US suspension of tariffs on smartphones, computers, and other electronic products already indicates that "China can even obtain these exemptions without negotiation."
"You can't wage a war you can't win."
"Waging a trade war with China is a very bad idea," *The Atlantic* published an article titled "This Is a Very Bad Idea" on April 18, written by its contributing writer Derek Thompson (Derek Thompson).
The author noted that Trump's attitude toward the trade war is as arbitrary and lacking in careful consideration as his downsizing of American government departments. However, the difference is that Trump can fire American government employees in a day but cannot resolve the trade war with China in a day.
"For certain product categories—smartphones, laptops, toys, lithium-ion batteries—it is difficult to imagine how we can quickly decouple from China because China accounts for a large share of imports in these categories," said Jason Miller, professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University.
According to Miller's梳理, the most dependent American goods on China can be divided into two categories. One category includes household goods. Among all imported goods in the US, Chinese products account for 99% of detachable hard-shell children's safety seats, 96% of pet toys, 95% of cooking utensils, 93% of children's coloring books, 88% of microwaves, and more than 70% of children's toys for ages 12 and below.
Under high tariffs, "either these items will be unavailable or their prices will double," Miller said.
The second category includes metals and electronics vital to American manufacturing and energy. China accounts for more than 50% of global processing shares for lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, and other metals. If China tightens its export controls, the US may soon face skyrocketing battery and grid energy storage prices, which will push up energy costs and significantly increase the cost of electric vehicles.
The article stated that the US cannot find substitutes for Chinese toys and electronics because no other country can produce so many toys or phones as efficiently as China, but China can more easily adjust its supply chain to cope with the trade war with the US.
On February 19, 2025, foreign businessmen were purchasing goods in Yiwu International Trade City in Jinhua, Zhejiang Province. Visual China
Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) also pointed out that from finished products like electronics, machinery, clothing, footwear to various construction materials, China dominates almost every consumer goods category, which is why the US buys these goods from China.
It is worth noting that reports indicate that just two years ago, the US could export a large amount of chips to China, but before Trump launched another round of trade wars, the US had largely banned chip exports to China. This left it with almost no leverage in this area.
"As Trump often says, you should never start a war you can't win," the report wrote.
"Why will Trump lose the trade war? Because his people don't know what they're doing and don't know what they want." On April 16, Paul Krugman, a 2008 Nobel Prize-winning economist and professor at the City University of New York, published an article titled "Trump Has Already Lost the Trade War With China," directly pointing out that "China, not the US, is ahead in this trade war."
Krugman explained that Trump doesn't understand the true meaning of trade, which focuses on "what you can buy, not what you can sell." He explained that the US sells mostly agricultural products to China, which can easily find alternatives, whereas the US finds it difficult to replace Chinese goods.
Adam Posen, director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, also expressed similar views. In an article published earlier this month in *Foreign Affairs*, he pointed out that China holds an "escalation dominance" advantage in the tariff war, meaning "one side has the ability to escalate the conflict in a way that disadvantages or imposes high costs on the opponent, while the opponent cannot retaliate in the same way."
The article stated that the US was almost destined to lose the trade war before reducing its dependence on Chinese products, with heavy costs involved. He said, "Washington, not Beijing, is betting on a losing hand."
Thomas Friedman, author of *The World Is Flat* and columnist for the *New York Times*, did not hide his dissatisfaction with Trump in a recent interview with the *New York Times*, again comparing his team to "clowns." He particularly mentioned that Trump's trade war strategy has many problems, with unclear objectives and irrational methods, harming himself and alienating allies. In contrast, "China does not act like Trump," focusing on related industrial development with significant results.
"Bluffing has been exposed."
"Trump has already lost the trade war with China," the British *Daily Telegraph* published an article on April 15 titled "Trump Has Already Lost the Trade War With China," written by its economic editor Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (Ambrose Evans-Pritchard). He argued that given China's financial and global trade strength, China is almost impossible to yield.
Instead, despite Trump's insistence that he would not back down on tariffs and that "no one can escape responsibility," he quickly made concessions to Canada and Mexico when he saw that American car prices would soar. After discovering that American-made iPhones might rise to over $3000, he announced exemptions for electronics products such as smartphones, computers, and chips.
Evans-Pritchard pointed out that apart from Trump supporters, people around the world can see that Trump's bluffs have been exposed.
For other observers, the impact of America's chaotic trade policies goes far beyond the trade war itself, severely damaging American industries and undermining the world's confidence in America.
Just two days after the US quietly announced exemptions for tariffs on mobile phones, computers, and other electronics, US Commerce Secretary Luetnick declared that the tariffs were only temporarily postponed, and these products would face separate tariffs.
Thorbecke bluntly stated that this fiasco of exempting tariffs on electronics exposes all the mistakes in the trade war, creating an environment full of uncertainty, making any form of long-term planning, especially major investments or talent recruitment, almost impossible.
She explained that the withdrawal of tariffs indicates either that Trump realized the harm these tariffs caused to American companies or that the heads of big tech companies had influenced him. If the former, it indicates fundamental problems with current US trade policy; if the latter, it is even more concerning, suggesting that companies without influence in the White House should prepare for greater impacts.
"All the capriciousness is exacerbating uncertainty, making business operations exceptionally difficult," Thorbecke wrote, "which could ultimately stifle America's technological ambitions and innovation."
Trump's trade policies have also greatly diminished the attractiveness of the US market. NPR's website reported on April 21 that for decades, the US financial system has been considered one of the most stable and powerful financial systems in the world. Now, people worry that the uncertainty of Trump's policies may cause global investors to lose confidence in the US.
Former US Treasury Secretary Yellen admitted in an interview last week that investors seem to be avoiding dollar assets. She said that the surge in US Treasury yields is worrying, and the recent turmoil in the US bond market and the weakness of the dollar reflect "loss of confidence."
Since the beginning of this year, the trend of US Treasury yields Financial Times chart
Trying to Coerce Other Countries to Take Sides?
Seeing that the long-planned trade war has turned into a mess, the US is trying to focus its efforts on dealing with China. Multiple overseas media outlets reported that sources revealed that the US is preparing to pressure other countries in tariff negotiations, demanding they limit trade with China in exchange for tariff exemptions.
In response, a spokesperson for China's Ministry of Commerce stated that recently, the US has imposed tariffs indiscriminately on all trading partners under the pretext of "reciprocity" while coercing各方 to engage in so-called "reciprocal tariff" negotiations. This is using the banner of "reciprocity" to promote hegemonic politics and unilateral bullying in the economic and trade field.
"Appeasement brings no peace, and compromise gains no respect. Seeking exemptions through harming others' interests for short-term private gain is tantamount to seeking trouble with a tiger, and ultimately, both sides will suffer losses." The spokesperson emphasized.
In the view of Al Jazeera, for most countries, today's China is a much larger trading partner than the US, limiting Trump's ability to pressure them.
A report released by the Lowy Institute for International Policy, an Australian think tank, in January this year showed that as of 2023, about 70% of the global economy (145 economies) had trade volumes with China exceeding those with the US; China is the largest trading partner for 60 economies, almost twice as many as the US (33 economies).
The report pointed out that since the US-China trade war from 2018 to 2019, China's leading advantage over the US in international trade has continued to expand. In 2018, 92 economies had trade volumes with China that were more than twice those with the US. By 2023, this number had risen to 112 economies.
"If one of Trump's objectives was to hurt China, then his first attack failed," Al Jazeera wrote.
"Trump seems not to understand how important China's trade flows are," said Alicia Garcia Herrero, an economist at Natixis. "Moreover, he hasn't provided much 'carrot,' such as increasing investment. So, I don't think he will get what he wants."
In Herrero's view, some countries with particularly close trade relations with the US may compromise and "refuse to import from China," but for most of America's other trading partners, China's presence in the supply chain is so significant that disengagement is almost impossible.
"Trump's trade policy is shortsighted," Herrero pointed out. "Attempting to disrupt trade with China may work in countries where the US has military bases... They may have to accept US concerns. But for most countries, especially those in the Global South, the more Trump threatens, the more these countries will side with China."
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7496794803733922358/
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