Source: BBC Chinese

In April this year, the Liberal Party led by Mark Carney (Mark Carney) won the Canadian federal election.

This April, Mark Carney (Mark Carney), leading the Liberal Party, won the Canadian federal election, allowing him to continue as Prime Minister.

At that time, outside analysis suggested that U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies on Canada, repeatedly emphasizing that "Canada should become the 51st state of the United States," and other authoritative threatening remarks, had stirred anti-American sentiment among Canadians, with Carney's tough stance toward the U.S. being considered one of the key factors in the Liberal Party's victory in the general election.

Carney emphasized in his victory speech that he would never yield to the U.S., also pointing out that the old relationship between Canada and the U.S. had come to an end.

With the changing dynamics in Canada-U.S. relations, there were predictions that this might bring about an improvement in Canada-China relations.

Earlier, Premier Li Qiang called to congratulate Carney, emphasizing that China values the Canada-China relationship and pointed out that "on the basis of equality and mutual respect, we will promote the correct direction of the Canada-China relationship for improvement and development."

"Traditionally, Canadians have had a very high opinion of the U.S., but in the past three months it has fallen to a historical low, even lower than their perception of Beijing. Can you imagine that? But it is happening," said Lynette Ong, a political science professor at the University of Toronto, to the BBC.

Despite this, Ong believed that the Canada-China relationship may not improve immediately as a result, "I think his (Carney's) top priority remains resisting Trump."

The current common enemy of Canada and China: the U.S.?

For decades, the U.S. and Canada, these two neighboring countries, have maintained close ally relationships in politics and trade.

However, in March this year, Trump imposed a 25% import tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico not covered by the USMCA, citing immigration and fentanyl issues, which was later postponed for a month. Subsequently, Canada announced a 25% retaliatory tariff on U.S. goods worth 30 billion Canadian dollars (over 20 billion USD).

Following this, the U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum products from Canada and other countries, which took effect on March 12th.

Besides Canada, the U.S. also levied high tariffs on Chinese imports, while China implemented retaliatory measures, and the Sino-U.S. trade war continued to escalate until both sides reached an agreement in Switzerland in May, with Trump significantly reducing the tariffs on Chinese goods.

For a long time, the U.S. has been Canada's largest trading partner, followed by China.

After Trump launched the trade war, Wang Di, the Chinese ambassador to Canada, told the Canadian Press in an interview in April that China was willing to establish a partnership with Canada to jointly resist the U.S.'s "hegemony" and that the two countries could join forces with other countries to prevent the U.S. from undermining global rules.

Ambassador Wang emphasized in the interview that China is an opportunity for Canada, not a threat.

After Carney's (left) victory, he visited the U.S. and met with U.S. President Trump (right) to discuss tariff and trade issues.

Is Canada aligning its China policy with the U.S.?

Ambassador Wang's above statement was in response to remarks made by Carney during a televised debate in the run-up to the election, where Carney clearly stated that Canada currently faces the greatest security threat from China.

"He described China as the biggest security threat to Canada, which makes it unlikely that he will seek closer ties with China, especially after the election," Adrienne Wu, project manager at the Global Taiwan Institute, told the BBC.

Scott Simon, professor of sociology and anthropology at the University of Ottawa, told the BBC that he believed Carney's victory "basically continues the policies of the Liberal Party, so I think we will see the continuation of Trudeau's government policies." In Simon's view, Canada's China policy will not undergo a major shift.

In October 2024, the Canadian government announced a 100% tariff on electric vehicles imported from China, matching the rate imposed by the U.S. on Chinese electric vehicles, and a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum products imported from China; in retaliation, China imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil, meal cakes, and peas in March this year; and a 25% tariff on aquatic products and pork.

On the other hand, in March, former Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly (Vicky Zhao) confirmed that four Canadian citizens with dual Canadian-Chinese citizenship had been executed in China for drug-related offenses. The Canadian government strongly condemned this.

"The events involving the two Michaels (Spavor and Kovrig) are still fresh in people's minds, and then this happened. This looks like China is not really interested in establishing good relations with Canada," Simon said. Despite external optimism about improving Canada-China relations, he believes that due to the obvious differences in political systems between Canada and China, it is difficult to establish closer ties.

How Canada-China relations deteriorated step by step

Canada established diplomatic relations with China in 1970 and was one of the early Western countries to do so.

However, after the "Meng Wanzhou incident" in 2018, the relationship between the two countries worsened.

In December 2018, Meng Wanzhou, CFO of the Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei, was arrested in Vancouver International Airport while transiting through Canada. At the time, the U.S. requested Canada to arrest and extradite Meng Wanzhou, accusing Huawei of violating U.S. export control bans on selling sensitive technology to Iran.

Since the "Meng Wanzhou incident," the relationship between China and Canada has deteriorated.

Not long after Meng Wanzhou's arrest, two Canadians, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, were detained and accused by China of engaging in espionage activities. The "two Michaels" incident drew widespread attention from Western society and was criticized as "hostage diplomacy."

Following the U.S. Department of Justice's agreement with Meng Wanzhou to defer prosecution, Meng Wanzhou was released and returned to China in 2021, and China also released the two detained Canadians. At the time, some voices described Canada as being caught between the two great powers, the U.S. and China.

However, after the Meng Wanzhou incident, there have been no signs of improvement in the Canada-China relationship. Ong said that people once expected that after the release of each other's citizens, the relationship might improve, but this did not happen, "I think Canadians are still very worried about dealing with this hostile force, a country that can arbitrarily detain people."

In 2023, Conservative MP Michael Chong (Michael Chong) claimed that his family members in Hong Kong had been intimidated by Chinese authorities, triggering the expulsion of diplomats between the two countries. Zhao Wei, consul at the Chinese Consulate General in Toronto, was listed as an "undesirable person" by Canada and subsequently expelled. Following this, the Chinese Foreign Ministry announced that Jennifer Lynn Lalonde, consul at the Canadian Consulate General in Shanghai, was also declared "persona non grata" and required to leave.

On the other hand, over the past few years, accusations of China's interference in Canadian elections have surfaced. This year, the final report of the Canadian Foreign Interference Investigative Committee confirmed that China and India had intervened in Canadian elections. A spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Canada responded to the investigation report, saying that the report was a rehash of old accusations, baseless speculation, and unfounded claims.

During the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and Canada, then Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau criticized China's "coercive diplomacy" in a press conference, stating that it had no benefits, and mentioned that China's coercive diplomacy, its suppression measures in Hong Kong, and the detention of Uyghur Muslims would be counterproductive for China itself and the rest of the world.

Will Canada-China economic and trade relations grow stronger?

Carney once said that China does not share Canada's values in trade, and that Canada needs to be very cautious in strengthening bilateral trade relations.

Currently, both Canada and China face tariff pressure from Trump. In terms of trade relations, due to geographical location, the U.S. has long been Canada's largest trading partner, with China ranking second.

Despite the continuous deterioration of the Canada-China political relationship over the past few years, trade exchanges remain frequent. Some analysts believe that under Trump's pressure, Canada may reconsider its trade relations with China.

But Scott Simon believes that although China is Canada's second-largest trading partner, the gap with the U.S. is still too large.

Statistics from Statistics Canada show that the total trade volume between China and Canada in 2024 was 117.4 billion Canadian dollars (about 84 billion USD), but the total bilateral commodity trade volume with the U.S. was approximately 973.6 billion Canadian dollars (about 697.3 billion USD); that year, the U.S. accounted for 76% of Canada's exports, while China accounted for 3.8%.

"I think they can hardly reduce their exports to the U.S. from 76% to below 70%, because geographical location is more important than anything else," Simon said.

Adrienne Wu said that Dominic LeBlanc, Canada's finance minister who has taken on new responsibilities, is now focusing on Canada's relations with the U.S. This reflects that the Canadian government considers handling relations with the U.S. as its top priority, "first trying to see how to improve relations with the U.S."

Rather than promoting closer economic and trade ties with China, she believes that Canada is currently pushing for a diversified trade strategy. She cited Canada's export data in March 2025 as an example, pointing out that the country's export value to the UK (3.79 billion Canadian dollars) has already exceeded its exports to China (2.76 billion Canadian dollars).

"If you think that tense relations with the U.S. will immediately lead Canada to turn to China, this seems somewhat simplistic because Canada has other options," Wu said.

After taking office in March this year, Carney's first foreign visit was to France and the UK. During his meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron, he expressed hope to strengthen ties with this reliable ally, Europe, and referred to Canada as the "most Europeanized non-European country."

Ong said that Carney clearly showed a willingness to build closer relations with European partners, "I think this is very wise."

Regarding China, Ong believed that Canada views China as a trading partner, "but also needs to treat relations with China very cautiously."

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7507413544984396340/

Disclaimer: The article represents the author's personal views, and you are welcome to express your attitude by clicking the "Top/Downvote" button below.