Reference News Network, November 4 report: The French newspaper "Les Échos" published an article titled "Who are the five candidates likely to succeed Powell who are pro-Trump?" on October 29. The authors are Fasofi Roland, Bastien Bouchard, Corentin Chappelon and Juliette Russell. The following is a summary of the full text:

Trump has confirmed this week that he will announce the successor to Federal Reserve Chair Powell by the end of the year. This timing is five months away from Powell's term ending (May 15, 2026). Trump may hope to weaken the influence of this "too late man" whom he calls before Powell's term ends.

The President of the United States appointing the Federal Reserve Chair can influence the direction of monetary policy, but this influence is limited. In fact, the opinion of the Federal Reserve Chair must be approved by a majority of the other 11 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee. Six of these members are appointed by the President of the United States, with a 14-year term (Biden appointed three, and the other three were appointed by Trump). The other five are presidents of regional federal reserve banks, appointed locally.

The next Federal Reserve Chair is likely to come from a list prepared by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. After Thanksgiving, Bessent will submit this "shortlist" to the President. Bessent still needs to conduct several interviews to finalize the list, but on Air Force One, he confirmed the names of the five final candidates to the journalists present.

· Kevin Hassett

Kevin Hassett is a core figure in the Trump administration, currently serving as the Director of the National Economic Council, and appears to have a high chance of winning.

Hassett is 63 years old and holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Pennsylvania. In 1989, he began his career as an assistant professor at Columbia University, then worked at the Federal Reserve until 1997. After that, he joined the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank, and gradually became one of the economic experts of the Republican Party.

He has served as an economic advisor to George W. Bush, John McCain, and Mitt Romney, and held various positions during Trump's first term, including the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, and was also an Senior Advisor for Economic Affairs during the pandemic.

Recently, he criticized Federal Reserve officials for putting politics above their duties. He aligns with Trump, criticizing the Federal Reserve for slow rate cuts, and believes that the cost overruns of the Federal Reserve headquarters renovation could be a reason to dismiss Powell. He also suggested that the release of employment data has a "partisan bias," which affects the Federal Reserve's decisions.

Critics accuse Hassett of increasing instability within the Federal Reserve, believing that he would place loyalty to Trump above the institution's independence.

· Christopher Waller

Christopher Waller has been a member of the Federal Reserve since 2020, appointed by Trump. His resume is enough to reassure investors. This monetary policy expert was responsible for research work at the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, an institution known for its respected research in the financial industry.

Over the past few months, Waller has been trying to send signals. He long advocated for restrictive monetary policy, but changed his stance in the fall of 2024. Since then, he has become one of the strongest supporters of rate cuts, because Trump has been demanding significant loosening of monetary policy in recent months.

However, at the September monetary policy meeting, he voted to cut rates by 25 basis points, unlike Stephen Moore, who was the only member of the monetary policy committee to support a 50-basis-point cut.

· Kevin Warsh

Kevin Warsh was a former member of the Federal Reserve, serving from 2006 to 2011. Although he was only 38 years old at the time, his performance during the 2008 financial crisis was closely watched, as he was responsible for communication between the Federal Reserve and Wall Street. This former banker experienced a similar nomination process in 2017, when Trump nearly appointed him as Federal Reserve Chair.

Warsh often criticizes the Federal Reserve. In June, he said: "Strong measures must be taken, because the way it is currently operating does not work." Although he has long advocated for restrictive monetary policy, he now says he supports rate cuts. His father-in-law may provide support for him—his wife is the daughter of Ronald Lauder, one of the main donors to Trump's campaign, who even advised Trump to acquire Greenland.

· Michele Bowman

Michele Bowman currently serves as the Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve responsible for bank supervision, appointed by Trump in March. She has been a member of the Federal Reserve since 2018 (also appointed by Trump).

Michele is known for her relaxed regulation. She was vice president of a regional bank in Texas, and her family has owned shares in the bank for five generations. In 2017, she became the Banking Commissioner of Kansas, and then joined the Federal Reserve.

Since becoming the Vice Chair of Supervision in June, she has implemented a more relaxed regulatory policy than her predecessor, Michael Barr.

Michele will introduce a more lenient version of Basel III in 2025 or early 2026, which will have a milder impact on bank capital. This year, she was one of the earliest supporters of rate cuts, and in July, she voted against the majority of members who wanted to keep interest rates unchanged.

· Rick Reifsnyder

Rick Reifsnyder is one of the most experienced managers at BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company. In September, when interviewed by CNBC, Reifsnyder stated that, based on his assessment of the economic situation, the Federal Reserve should rarely cut rates by 50 basis points. In the end, the Federal Reserve only cut rates by 25 basis points.

Reifsnyder emphasized the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence, because investors must have confidence in the dollar, Treasury bonds, and Treasury financing. But he also said that the Federal Reserve can be more "innovative." He is a strong supporter of digital assets.

According to Bloomberg News, in the interviews with Treasury Secretary Bessent, Reifsnyder's long-term experience in the market and his deep understanding of both micro and macroeconomics impressed Bessent greatly.

According to betting data from the Polymarket prediction website on October 29, Kevin Hassett had a 38% probability of being appointed as Federal Reserve Chair by Trump in May 2026, leading ahead of Christopher Waller (22%), Kevin Warsh (18%), Rick Reifsnyder (9%), and the only female candidate, Michele Bowman (3%).

Evidently, the bettors on the Polymarket prediction website did not rule out candidates outside the Treasury Secretary's "shortlist". The probability of appointment for two of Trump's close aides, Scott Bessent and Stephen Moore, were 7% and 4%, respectively. (Translated by Wang Zhongju)

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7568805389690307135/

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