[By Guancha Observer Network, Shao Yun]

In recent years, the United States has continuously escalated its high-end scientific and technological suppression against China, but it has instead accelerated China's independent innovation. According to a May 30 report by The Wall Street Journal, this has caused strategic anxiety and policy differences within the U.S. government. It is reported that most U.S. government officials advocate increasing export control efforts, but many experts point out that the view that China will significantly or sustainably fall behind itself goes against historical trends.

The Wall Street Journal opened by stating that the U.S. has exhausted almost every method to win the technology race with China—covering various fields such as artificial intelligence (AI), energy, autonomous vehicles, drones, and electric vehicles. However, so far, these efforts have not borne fruit.

"China's electric vehicles are cheaper and more advanced in many aspects than those in the U.S. China dominates the consumer drone market. Autonomous vehicles have been deployed on the streets of Wuhan and Beijing, rolling out much faster than Waymo and Tesla. Chinese-made photovoltaic panels and batteries account for the largest global share. Although the U.S. and its allies maintain a slight lead in advanced microchips and AI, the gap seems to be narrowing at an unprecedented rate."

The report states that as a result, there has been intense debate between senior leaders of the current U.S. administration and external critics. White House officials and related think tanks almost unanimously support curbing China's technological progress through bans on exporting AI chips and their manufacturing tools. Outside figures, including NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang, argue that such policies are counterproductive and will only accelerate China's development of its own technological ecosystem.

Brian Burack, a China affairs analyst at the conservative American Heritage Foundation, which is considered to have significant influence during the Trump administration, has exaggerated that under the so-called "new Cold War" between the U.S. and China, controlling technology exports in areas like AI is more important than ever before.

"Even if this sounds reasonable commercially, are we really willing to help China develop dual-use AI that can guide weapons?" The report quotes Burack as saying. He previously served as a member of the National Security Council until last week when the council was reduced by 100 people. Burack claims that his experience working at the NSC has strengthened his confidence in related policies.

On May 27, 2025, Shanghai, the 2025 China Metrology Exhibition. Measuring wafers and chips. Visual China.

However, numerous industry insiders, including Jensen Huang, have long strongly criticized the U.S. current export controls. At a press conference on his company's financial results on the 28th, Huang reiterated his criticism: "Isolating Chinese chip manufacturers from competing with American companies will only enhance their competitiveness overseas while weakening America's position. Export restrictions instead stimulate Chinese innovation and scale expansion."

Huang previously predicted that by 2026, China’s spending on AI chips and servers could reach $50 billion. Due to the U.S. new export restrictions on advanced AI chips to China, NVIDIA will miss out on this market.

According to The Wall Street Journal, although China's advanced AI chips perform slightly worse individually compared to NVIDIA, they have already surpassed in certain key indicators through scaling and system integration. Doug O’Laughlin, an analyst at SemiAnalysis, mentioned that China also has a significant advantage in terms of power supply. "Over the past decade, China has increased energy production and locked in the entire supply chain to maintain this momentum."

The Wall Street Journal stated that several interviewed experts pointed out that China has a unique combination of advantages that no other country had during the history of the U.S. trade war. For example, in this populous country, from skilled factory workers to highly educated engineers, all types of labor are available and generally well-trained. Huang repeatedly stated that half of the world's AI engineers are in China.

In addition, the report analyzed that China has a vast domestic market that can incubate enterprises domestically before going global. Currently, China is gradually reducing its reliance on various raw materials and specialized products provided by the U.S. and other countries through organized, well-funded long-term strategies. "Year after year, from the smallest chip components to the largest cargo ships, the proportion of Made in China is rising."

In fact, China's progress in the technology field has long ceased to be a new topic for Washington, but according to The Wall Street Journal, insiders said that the U.S. truly began to vigorously curb China's technological development starting from the first term of Trump's presidency.

In 2018, the U.S. Commerce Department issued a "sales ban" to ZTE Communications, thus initiating a series of suppression measures against China. Dan Wang, a researcher at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University, stated that under the best circumstances, the U.S. could have let its chip and software giants continue to dominate the Chinese market, but years of export control policies have destroyed trust, making it impossible. "What we now have is not the 'second-best solution,' but the 'seventh-best solution.'"

Patrick Moorhead, a semiconductor industry analyst who worked at AMD for 11 years, believes that although China's overall ecosystem in advanced chip manufacturing still lags behind Western countries, underestimating China's catching-up capabilities and believing that China remains far behind or will always lag behind is a violation of historical trends.

"I've been in the tech industry for 30 years and have heard many people say, 'Oh, China can't handle this.' But now I think the only question is 'when' they will succeed." Moorhead said that in the long run, mainland Chinese companies may be able to obtain all the resources they need locally, potentially matching and even surpassing companies like TSMC and Intel.

This article is an exclusive piece by the Observer Network and cannot be reproduced without permission.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7510639811604644415/

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