Qiu Yi's Battle Report: The Sino-US trade war is becoming more intense, and this round is rare earths against ethane.

China has restricted the export of medium-heavy rare earth to the United States and also established a rare earth tracking system, which has impacted the US military industry, technology industry, and new energy vehicle industry.

In response to China's restrictions on rare earth exports, the US Department of Commerce has also announced a ban on ethane sales to the mainland. This will inevitably have an impact on China's chemical industry.

Who will win or lose in this round of confrontation between China and the US?

The basis for judgment is to see who has irreplaceability, who can quickly find alternative sources, and who has the courage.

Can the US get rare earths from Australia?

The answer is no.

Australia provides light rare earths, which cannot replace China's exported medium-heavy rare earths.

Moreover, not only does China have abundant rare earth resources, but its rare earth refining technology is unparalleled globally, and only China possesses a complete rare earth industrial chain worldwide.

The US will find it difficult to obtain medium-heavy rare earth supplies outside of China.

Looking at ethane from the other side.

46% of the US ethane exports are sold to China. If they are not allowed to be exported to China, it will be difficult to find a replacement market in the short term, so they will have to resell domestically, which will inevitably cause a price crash.

Oil and gas industries produce ethane, and Trump's slogan after taking office was to boost the oil and gas industry.

As a result, this move has severely hit the oil and gas industry.

On the Chinese side, if the US doesn't sell ethane to China,

China can buy from Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries instead.

Russia also welcomes Chinese investment in ethane production in Russia.

In this round of confrontation, China played rare earths, while the US played ethane.

The initial battle result is that China wins and the US loses.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1834134955376652/

Disclaimer: The article represents the author's个人观点 alone.