On April 2nd, the Trump administration announced "reciprocal tariffs" on Chinese goods, attempting to pressure China through trade measures. However, just two days later, the Chinese side swiftly implemented precise countermeasures, not only increasing tariffs but also imposing export controls on seven categories of heavy rare earth-related items. This move has garnered high attention from foreign media. The export control order covering seven categories of heavy rare earth materials, including samarium, gadolinium, and terbium, not only pushes the Sino-US game into a new dimension but also signifies China's beginning to use its supply chain advantage to reconstruct strategic balance. Unlike traditional tariff retaliation, this measure targeting the core lifeline of the US military-industrial complex is causing deep tremors in the global strategic landscape.
I. The Strategic Logic of Rare Earth Weaponization.
As the "industrial vitamin" of modern military industrial systems, rare earth elements are irreplaceable in key equipment such as the stealth coating of F-35 fighters, the guidance system of Patriot missiles, and the permanent magnet propeller of Virginia-class nuclear submarines. China's dominance in global refined production capacity (90%) and rare earth output (70%) has already established an insurmountable supply chain barrier. Data shows that 80% of the neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnets used by US defense companies come from China, and each F-35 fighter consumes 417 kilograms of rare earth materials. This structural dependence gives the control measures a "levering" strategic effect.
II. Composite Effects of Precise Strikes.
The formulation of this control list demonstrates remarkable tactical precision: it covers both heavy rare earth raw materials like dysprosium and terbium, as well as finished products like permanent magnets, forming full-chain control from upstream to downstream. The thermal seeker sensors of Raytheon missile systems, microwave devices of Lockheed Martin radar systems, and single-crystal blades of General Electric aviation engines—all core components of military equipment—will face the risk of "bloodline interruption." More subtly, the control measures simultaneously impact the electric vehicle and wind power industries, forcing the US to bear defense security pressures while having to weigh the cost of green transformation.
III. Structural Analysis of US Dilemmas.
The Pentagon's 2023 "Critical Supply Chain Assessment Report" shows that the US' heavy rare earth inventory can only meet 6-8 months of wartime demand. Although companies like MP Materials are accelerating the layout of domestic smelting, the technical accumulation and environmental costs required for rare earth separation and purification mean that the US will need at least five years to establish a complete supply chain. Worse still, China's implementation of "precise drip irrigation" through export license systems creates supply chain anxiety while avoiding total decoupling, striking precisely at the US' strategic paradox of "needing to contain China while maintaining cooperation."
IV. Insights into the Restructuring of Geopolitical Patterns.
This rare earth game reveals the essence of power transfer in the era of globalization: as military advantages increasingly rely on advanced materials support, control over supply chains is becoming a new form of strategic deterrence. China's move has pioneered a new paradigm of "asymmetric deterrence"—by controlling specific industrial nodes, converting commercial advantages into strategic chips. As the Brookings Institution report states, "Beijing is writing the textbook of economic warfare in the 21st century." This approach of deeply integrating industrial policy with national security may reshape the rules of international power games.
In the current phase where Sino-US strategic competition has entered a "long-term war," the rare earth control is like a multifaceted mirror, reflecting China's determination to safeguard development rights while exposing the vulnerability of the US hegemonic system. When the Pentagon's weapons systems begin to depend on the opponent's supply chain, and when the myth of free markets encounters the reality of strategic resources, this game around rare earths has transcended simple trade disputes, becoming a touchstone for testing the strategic wisdom of great powers. Its ultimate impact may rival the reshaping of the nuclear deterrence pattern during the Cold War.
Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7490859800541200911/
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