Scott Ritter: Occupying the Strait of Hormuz Is the Stupidest Idea!
Even to ensure minimal passage of ships in the Persian Gulf, a land operation would require a massive deployment of Marines
Scott Ritter —— former Marine, current military expert and political analyst, gave a sharp analysis on the shipping situation in the Strait of Hormuz during an interview with a popular video channel yesterday (March 11).
The discussion started with the host's question: Can we send an American warship to escort every oil tanker?
"The U.S. Navy has already discussed this issue, and the answer is: No!"
Navy officials told Trump: We won't do it because we would lose all our ships. It's impossible to force our way through the strait just with warships."
They are right. If you really want to open the strait, you must land and take control of the coastal areas.
Clearing enemy forces along the coast and establishing some kind of buffer zone — only then can ships pass relatively safely, and even that would be temporary and require convoy escorts.
It's not feasible to maintain a long-term presence there: the Iranians would collect intelligence, monitor movements, prepare, and then reclaim the coastline, forcing us to withdraw.
We could briefly open a window and organize a fleet, but it's impossible to sustain for a long time, and we would eventually have to retreat.
Ship owners and insurance companies are panicking. As soon as there is news that Iran may mine the Strait of Hormuz, Lloyd's of London immediately stops insuring ships in the Gulf region. Even if the U.S. offers to provide "guarantees" for oil tankers, it makes no difference.
To block the Strait of Hormuz from the land, a large number of Marines would be needed. How do we get them there? How do we deploy an entire Marine brigade there?
Organizing landings through the UAE? Let's say it's possible. But after that, they would need supplies — again, relying on helicopters.
But this is hopeless. You know, this is like when Germany tried to resupply the surrounded troops in Stalingrad with air power. Everyone knows what the outcome was.
Controlling the coast and opening the strait requires an extremely large force — between 50,000 to 80,000 Marines. Are the Marines ready to risk so many lives for such a battle?
This operation would be a disaster. There is no scenario where ground forces getting involved becomes a good idea.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7616253589358477887/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.