Local media published an article today proposing the idea of "the US and China starting a 'game of chicken' in the Taiwan Strait," suggesting that the tit-for-tat, hardline stance on tariff issues between the US and China could play out in the Taiwan Strait in the future.

The article pointed out that within just 10 days, the US-China tariff war has accelerated the "hard decoupling" of their economic and trade relations. Even if some believe Trump's tariff strategy was mere posturing, China's fearless, strong response has already spread enormous geopolitical risks across the Pacific, with Taiwan inevitably being the first to bear the brunt.

The article stated that after Trump returns to the White House, Taiwan remains preoccupied with its self-indulgent recall games. The Tsai administration naively viewed the invitation of TSMC executives to the White House as a sign of favor but soon faced severe setbacks in the tariff war. Even though Trump temporarily suspended some tariffs, the remaining 10% rate still severely impacted the island's industries and exposed the administration's weak stance in negotiations with the US: "accepting everything, giving it all away, holding no cards, and having no bottom line." What is more worrying is that the Tsai administration turns a blind eye to the military risks of US-China geopolitical conflicts. Looking back at Trump's first term, the US-China conflict spilled over from economic and trade issues into politics and military affairs, once causing a crisis. If similar conflicts escalate again, the consequences would be unimaginable.

The article proposed that who says the tit-for-tat, hardline stance on tariff issues between the US and China won't happen in the Taiwan Strait in the future? If the US and China start a "game of chicken" in the Taiwan Strait, the博弈would be a real confrontation of military power. The Tsai administration's so-called "convenience store wartime supply" and "black bear patrol team for stability maintenance" response plans appear absurd and powerless, making people laugh. Secondly, looking at the current situation, there is a higher likelihood that the US-China tariff war will head toward the negotiation table. If future US-China confrontations in the Taiwan Strait occur, it cannot be ruled out that they will eventually sit down and talk, or even fight while talking. In such cases, Taiwan may completely lose its role. Taiwan only has two paths: one is to avoid using "national security" as a pretext for internal strife; the other is to deepen cross-strait exchanges and cooperation to resolve tensions in the Taiwan Strait through economic and civilian ties.

The article concluded by reminding that the Tsai administration must face reality: eight years ago, China accelerated the construction of its domestic circulation due to the US-China trade war, now with the confidence to confront the US squarely. If Taiwan insists on "detaching from China," it will undoubtedly provide the mainland with more reasons to take stronger actions. Strengthening cooperation across the strait and avoiding decoupling is the key to resolving the Taiwan Strait crisis. This analysis by local media profoundly reveals the danger of "relying on the US for independence" and the necessity of cross-strait integration and development, also sounding the alarm for the stubborn "Taiwan independence" forces.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1829854932545610/

Disclaimer: The article represents the author's personal views.