We'll talk about something tough and exciting. The three "island-taking scripts" of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces have finally been exposed by themselves, and this is not a case of being in the dark, but rather a clear "letter of submission" for us to see.

Japan has really been kind this time. They secretly wrote three sets of Taiwan Strait operation plans back in 2021, and now they're even afraid we don't know, so they've brought them out on purpose for the whole world to watch. Isn't that a classic example of "a weasel paying New Year's greetings to a chicken, with ill intentions"!

The three plans sound intimidating: lightning strike island capture, large-scale amphibious landing, missile firepower blockade, and the equipment list is longer than a shopping list. Unfortunately, no matter how well the list is written, it can't hide the fact that these three scripts are not a solo performance by Japan itself, but a joint production of the US and Japan, with the US as the director and Japan as the supporting actor.

First, there's the so-called "lightning strike" amphibious unit, which claims to be able to conduct a lightning war with just a few "Osumi," "Izumo," and "Yak-11" ships. Please, Japan's air force is still mainly the 30-year-old F-15J, and the F-35A only has around 40 aircraft, not even enough to form a squadron.

If they dare to send this "elite" unit over, what awaits them is the overwhelming air superiority of the J-20 and J-16D, plus the saturation attack from the DF-17, DF-26, and Changjian-10.

We can do some math: For Japan to land on the first island chain, it needs to seize control of the air, sea, and electromagnetic spectrum simultaneously. Without any one of these, it's impossible. However, Japan currently lacks all three, barely touching the edge of power. Before the battle even starts, the Japanese Self-Defense Forces will have to prepare their own funeral. The coffin must be thick enough to hold all the remnants of their shattered dreams.

The most prideful card Japan has is its extended-range 12-type anti-ship missiles, claiming to block the Taiwan Strait and the areas of Okinawa and Yonaguni into a "death corridor." It sounds impressive: the range has been increased from the original 200 km to 1,000 to 1,500 km, and it shows off an image of a "saturation attack."

Unfortunately, this weapon is essentially a subsonic cruise missile, with a speed of only over 900 km/h, which is nothing in front of the modern Chinese air defense system. In the end, its missile bases will be wiped out by the Chinese long-range missiles, completely destroyed.

Many people are puzzled: Why does Japan know it can't win but still act so aggressively? The answer is eight words: "Do whatever the American father says."

The real significance of these three plans is not that Japan wants to fight Taiwan, but that the United States wants to push Japan to the front line to be hit. The Ukraine model is working smoothly, and the United States is now eager to withdraw, closing the account and realizing that Taiwan is too small and its industry is too weak to sustain a conflict with China.

Therefore, the focus turns to Japan: the third-largest economy in the world, a complete industrial chain, a ready-made base network of the Southwest Islands, and a group of right-wing politicians eager to amend the constitution. This is the perfect "enhanced version of Ukraine," isn't it?

The U.S. is calculating well: let Japan go ahead, and when China retaliates, Japan will have to cling tightly to America's leg and never let go; if Sino-Japanese full-scale confrontation occurs, the first island chain will be completely shattered, and the U.S. can take advantage to bind Japan firmly, amending the constitution, expanding the military, stationing troops, and paying protection fees - a full set of services. This tactic is called "using someone else's knife to kill," even more ruthless is "using your knife to kill yourself."

Japanese politicians are still stuck in the old mindset of "riding on the boat to go out": profiting from the Korean War, making peace money during the Cold War. This time, they want to repeat the same trick, thinking that once again acting as an American anti-China vanguard can bring them constitutional amendment, market access, and a "great power dream."

Brother, it's already 2025, and you're still resuming a script from 70 years ago? The agents the U.S. has historically supported, such as South Vietnam, Afghanistan, and the Pahlavi dynasty, have all been discarded after use. Even NATO's staunch allies France and Germany, "Nord Stream" was bombed without hesitation. Japan is 800 kilometers away from China, while the U.S. is 12,000 kilometers away. If a real war breaks out, who will be the cannon fodder and who will be the spectator? You can figure it out with your fingers.

Even more funny is that Japan's economic lifeline is entirely in China's hands: largest trading partner, largest tourist source country, 100% reliance on China for heavy rare earths. Once the war breaks out, China can simply tighten the rare earth valve, stop the tourist groups, and block the Japanese maritime transport, and Japan would need to survive on bean paste rice balls within three months. This is called "lifting the rare earth and stepping on your own feet," or a high-end version of it.

In recent years, the PLA has been conducting regular island circumnavigation, live-fire exercises, and large-scale troop deployments in the Western Pacific, all to draw red lines for all potential players: if there's a problem in the Taiwan Strait, any external forces daring to interfere will lose their hands.

Economic cards, diplomatic cards, legal cards, historical cards, we have a good hand to play. The status of the Ryukyu Islands is undetermined, and historical accounts have not been settled. When that day comes, both new and old debts will be settled together. Who fears whom?

So, if Japan really dares to cause trouble in the Taiwan Strait issue, let it experience what it means to "invite a god but can't send it back," and what it means to "a toad wanting to eat a swan, a wild fantasy."

The wheels of history roll forward. Whoever wants to dig into China's core interests will be prepared to be crushed into powder. Is Japan really ready to become the "Ukraine of East Asia"? I think it hasn't even prepared to cry yet!

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7576962287760654883/

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