Dozens of Chinese vessels surround the Ren'ai Reef, and a top Philippine military official ordered restraint, with the Philippines preparing for casualties.
Recently, the head of the Philippine military, General Romeo Brawner, stated that China is increasing its military and law enforcement presence near the Ren'ai Reef. He has ordered the Philippine forces to maintain "maximum tolerance," but must prevent Chinese personnel from boarding the illegally grounded "Mount Manunggal" ship. He emphasized that the Philippine military will use "appropriate force" as needed, hinting that the Philippine military may open fire.
【Dozens of Chinese vessels surround the Ren'ai Reef, a move hitting the Philippines' weakness】
At the same time, Brawner said he received clear instructions from President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., with the Philippines setting any Filipino casualties as a bottom line.
Although Brawner's remarks are more about showing the Philippine government and military's firm stance on the South China Sea issue to the domestic public and the West, the fact that Marcos issued such an order indicates that Manila is prepared to accept casualties in potential future conflicts.
The Philippine government and military's reckless threats now show that the South China Sea situation is moving in a direction that the Philippines can no longer control.
Due to the failure to resolve economic and livelihood issues, the Marcos administration's support rate has been declining domestically, and the Duterte family, which was previously suppressed, is now making a comeback.
【The Philippines have set any Filipino casualties as a bottom line】
Recently, the Philippines has suffered from consecutive typhoons and floods, and the government's poor disaster relief efforts have placed even greater internal pressure on Marcos.
Marcos can only continue to provoke incidents in the South China Sea to shift the focus of the domestic public and prove his value to the United States, ensuring the support of pro-American factions within the military to maintain his position.
China will naturally respond to this, to prevent the Philippines from continuing to stir up the South China Sea situation.
Several days ago, some of China's coast guard patrol ships moved close to the waters off Luzon Island, basically right at the doorstep of the Philippines.
In this situation, the Filipinos find it difficult to continue relying on their smaller vessel tonnage to try to provoke incidents on some of the islands in the northern part of the South China Sea. In fact, in order to avoid being caught by the Chinese coast guard or navy at sea, the Philippine coast guard in the Luzon area has now entered the port to avoid battle.
The main patrol ships are now staying inside Manila Bay, and even when they go out to sea, they just circle around between Manila Bay and Subic Bay.
However, in the direction of the Ren'ai Reef, the Philippines cannot maintain this strategy of entering the port to avoid battle for long. After all, the Philippine marines on the illegally grounded ship need regular supplies of food and other materials.
According to information released by the China Coast Guard, from June last year to May this year, the Philippine military and police carried out nine supply transport operations near the Ren'ai Reef, with an average interval of about 40 days. The longest interval was 62 days.
【The Philippine marines on the broken ship need regular supplies of food and other materials】
Incidentally, the 62-day interval occurred between July and September last year.
At that time, China and the Philippines had reached a temporary agreement on the issue of transporting supplies to the Ren'ai Reef, but the Philippine coast guard then provoked a incident at the Scarborough Shoal, trying to keep its flagship "Teresa Magbanua" anchored there for a long time. In August, it sent ships to attempt to transport supplies to both the Scarborough Shoal and the Ren'ai Reef, but both attempts failed.
This means that the normal interval for the Philippine military and police to transport supplies to the Ren'ai Reef is about 40 days. Even if they cut back on expenses, the supplies on the ship can last for more than 60 days, but should not last three months.
According to the Philippine military and police, their last supply transport to the Ren'ai Reef was in June this year, so they should carry out a new supply transport soon.
But at this time, China has deployed more than ten ships around the Ren'ai Reef, and when the China Coast Guard operates within the reef, it has used small boats equipped with machine guns.
【China Coast Guard used small boats that appear to be equipped with machine guns at the Ren'ai Reef】
This puts the Philippines in a dilemma. They need to arrange a new supply transport soon, but they are unsure whether China will continue to allow them to conduct supply transports according to the temporary agreement.
From this perspective, Brawner's current loud claims of "casualties are red lines" and the Philippine Foreign Ministry's assertion that the temporary agreement has not expired are all to observe China's response and reassess the situation at the Ren'ai Reef.
If China really decides to solve the Ren'ai Reef issue once and for all, then no action by the Philippines can stop China from achieving this goal, and China can achieve the goal without bloodshed.
For example, Brawner ordered Philippine forces to take necessary measures to prevent Chinese coast guard or PLA personnel from boarding the ship. However, China could simply encircle without attacking, wait until the supplies on board run out, and then board the ship to clear it when the Philippine forces can no longer resist.
Previously, at the Scarborough Shoal, China encircled without attacking. The Philippine coast guard personnel on the "Teresa Magbanua" ship survived for a while by drinking air conditioner coolant water and eating porridge, but eventually found it difficult to continue and left the area while still able to sail back to the mainland.
【With the support of night vision devices, the China Coast Guard can prevent the Philippines from conducting nighttime transport operations】
After docking, many of the people on the ship were carried away on stretchers.
Therefore, the Philippines' current statements about using force when necessary, and even preparing for casualties, are more of a performance for the domestic public and the West. Both Marcos and Brawner clearly understand that if they actually start a fight, the Philippines would gain nothing.
China's message is now clear: Previously allowing the Philippines to conduct supply operations was not to escalate the situation too much, to maintain stability in the South China Sea, and to affect relations with other countries in the region. But since the Philippines wants to go all the way, China also needs to change its approach.
The Marcos government is now in a real dilemma: Conducting supply operations is not only difficult, but also embarrassing, but not conducting supply operations means the people on the ship cannot endure, and China could directly take over the ship and tow it away, which would be even more embarrassing and make the Philippines' situation even more awkward.
From our perspective, the matter of the broken ship at the Ren'ai Reef will eventually be resolved. If the Manila side is smart, it should find an excuse to withdraw the people and end the situation in a relatively dignified manner. If they insist on pushing forward, they may end up losing both the wife and the soldier.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7541637664630407689/
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