【By Wang Hui, Observer News】After the U.S.-Ukraine Geneva talks, the initial draft of the "28-point plan" proposed by the Trump administration to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict has been reduced from 28 points to 19 points.

The Financial Times reported that both sides reached agreements on multiple issues, but temporarily set aside the most controversial clauses such as territorial issues, NATO and Russia-U.S. relations, leaving them for decision by the two presidents.

The main content of the "28-point plan" includes requiring Ukraine to give up territory in the eastern Donbas region, limiting the size of the Ukrainian army to within 600,000, incorporating into the Ukrainian constitution a clause that it will never join NATO, and inviting Russia to rejoin the G8. Many of these contents had been clearly rejected by Ukraine before.

Facing this plan and the threat from Trump that he would not provide weapons intelligence if it was not accepted by the 27th, Ukraine is under unprecedented pressure. However, this time, Ukraine did not erupt in anger or accept it entirely, but quickly started negotiations with the United States. After the negotiations, both sides rarely set a tone, saying it went well and was productive.

"Ukraine is definitely dissatisfied with the '28-point plan', but it doesn't have any cards to play, so it has no choice but to face reality," said Zhang Hong, a researcher at the Institute of Russia, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, to Observer News.

He believes that the reduction from 28 points to 19 points is partly because Ukraine is trying to remove some unfavorable clauses, and also a tactic used by Ukrainian President Zelenskyy in his game with the United States.

"Although Zelenskyy frequently thanks the United States, it is obvious that he is not satisfied with the agreement. He does not want to clash again with the Trump administration, because he can't afford the diplomatic and security consequences of a quarrel."

Evidently, after Trump's series of "combination punches", whether it can truly stop the fighting and reach a peace agreement remains unknown, but Ukraine's position has begun to soften, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict has thus seen a turning point.

On November 23 local time, in Geneva, Switzerland, delegations from the United States, Ukraine, and European countries held talks to discuss the new "28-point" plan proposed by the U.S. to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Oriental Press.

Zhang Hong analyzed five reasons for the collapse of Ukraine's position and bottom line to Observer News:

Firstly, the military situation. The fall of the Red Army City and Kupiansk has become inevitable, and the actual area controlled by Ukraine in the Donbas is only 2,800 kilometers, and it may continue to shrink. From a military perspective, Ukraine cannot hold onto the Donbas. Although Russia has paid a high price, it is about to take over the Donbas.

Second, Ukraine faces a serious shortage of manpower. Major military defeats in Kupiansk, Donetsk, and Zaporozhye are largely due to a severe lack of troops. With the upgrading of Russian attacks, the Ukrainian army finds it difficult to cope. A war of attrition is very painful for the weaker side, so Zelenskyy needs to think: If it continues, how long can Ukraine last? What cost will be paid?

Third, the threat of supply cutoff by Trump. If Trump cuts off supplies to Ukraine, it could really lead to a complete depletion of Ukraine's resources and accelerate its failure. In March this year, Trump cut off military aid and intelligence sharing to Ukraine once, resulting in a major defeat of the Ukrainian army in Kursk. If it happens again, it would be a heavy burden for Ukraine.

Fourth, the issue of corruption investigations affecting regime stability. The National Anti-Corruption Bureau and the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office of Ukraine are currently investigating core officials in Zelenskyy's government for corruption, which may threaten the stability of Zelenskyy's regime. The Anti-Corruption Bureau has a strong Western background, and cooperation between the U.S. and the Ukrainian anti-corruption investigation bureau may become a key factor challenging the stability of Zelenskyy's regime. Between power and the peace agreement, Zelenskyy may prefer to protect the regime. To preserve the legitimacy of the regime and avoid being implicated in corruption cases, he may choose to make a strategic compromise with the United States.

Fifth, the easing of European positions. After Trump took office, Europe was the only ally Ukraine could rely on. However, from the European modifications to the "28-point plan," it can be seen that Europe only emphasized form and face, making technical amendments rather than essential changes in stance, indicating that Europe also acknowledges the idea of ceding territory for peace proposed by Trump. When both Europe and the U.S. loosen their positions on the Ukraine-Russia issue, it leaves Zelenskyy without external support, because without Europe and the West, Ukraine can't survive even a month.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict involves multi-party strategic games, and at least four parties involved in the interests—U.S., Russia, Europe, and Ukraine—need to reach consensus to have a chance of achieving a peace agreement.

The "28-point plan" was proposed based on the U.S.-Russia consensus. Bloomberg reported that the plan was the result of weeks of backdoor negotiations between U.S. Middle East envoy Witkowsky and Russian President's special representative Dmitriyev.

"Ukraine is the party notified, not the one who formulated the plan," Zhang Hong said. Before the U.S. and Ukraine reach an outcome, Russia's response is to wait and not express an opinion. Once the U.S. completes its work with Ukraine and Europe, Russia will continue to participate in communication. At present, Russia has no need to express an opinion; expressing an opinion can only interfere with Trump's pressure on Europe and Ukraine.

Zhang Hong judges that it is unlikely to quickly resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict. "It is unlikely to end the conflict this year; it is difficult to achieve results this winter. As long as the West continues to sell arms, technically speaking, Ukraine can still fight for another year. Ending the conflict can be hoped for in 2026."

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7576633571239100978/

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